Dynasty Fantasy Football Notebook: Handling Injuries and Other Adversity

Every year we head into the fantasy season with the feeling that “this is the year” and “nothing is going to stop me this time.” And then the fantasy gods throw a fastball directly into our stomachs. 

The adversity hit a little earlier than normal this year, mostly in the form of injuries to stud players. But don’t fret, there are still plenty of ways to pivot and regain our footing. I’ll provide some player-specific strategies below.

But remember: THIS IS DYNASTY, a format that often rewards patience. Sometimes the best move you can make is no move at all.

If you roster one of these players in dynasty, it’s important you do your homework and assess not just your own team, but the teams you’ll be facing in the coming weeks. Assuming you don’t have a cakewalk schedule against rebuilding teams on the horizon—and you consider yourself a contending team—there are multiple paths you can take to get your rosters back on track.

Joe Burrow – Another Injury Nightmare

The prognosis on Joe Burrow couldn’t be much bleaker, as he’s apparently going to miss a minimum of three months thanks to his turf toe. That means you’ll be lucky if he’s back in time for your fantasy playoffs.

Look, this next part isn’t easy to say. However, I no longer consider Burrow a top-five dynasty QB. Yes, he’s only 28 years old, but this is potentially his third season-ending injury since entering the league. At this rate, his offensive line and the Bengals' personnel staff should be questioned by Daniel Craig in the next Knives Out movie. They’re basically doing to Burrow what the Colts did to Andrew Luck. 

If one of your rebuilding leaguemates is willing to take on the hefty risks in favor of his admittedly elite upside, I’d let them. Because unless Cincinnati makes drastic improvements to their O-line or Burrow significantly changes his play style…this is always a possibility.

Patchwork Pivot: Jake Browning

When Browning replaced Burrow for seven games in 2023, he averaged 267 passing yards and two touchdowns (including some goal line rushing TDs) per game. That made him the QB7 in Points Per Game during that stretch. Stepping in this past week halfway through the 2nd quarter, Browning put up 241 passing yards and three total touchdowns. Cincinnati’s offense will remain pass heavy thanks to their rocky defense, and Browning’s numbers should be serviceable despite a tough schedule in the next few weeks.

Drop a significant amount of FAAB in Superflex leagues (I’m talking 80%), or if he’s somehow rostered, see if the lucky manager will part with him for a flex-worthy running back or receiver.

Long-term Pivot: Drake Maye

There’s a strong case to be made that Burrow and Drake Maye should be valued similarly in dynasty, but my gut says the average manager still considers them pretty far apart. 

I’ve spilled plenty of ink on why I’m all-in on Maye, so I’ll spare you the diatribe here. But I’ll just say this: Maye has spread the ball out to 11 different pass-catchers on the Patriots—including one to himself—none of whom are widely considered elite at this stage in their careers. There’s plenty of room for growth. It wouldn’t shock me if he finishes as a top 8 QB this year and vaults farther up the dynasty rankings.

Jayden Reed - No Longer Leading the Pack

Jayden Reed vaulted up in dynasty rankings after a superb end to his rookie season, but his value took a hit after the Packers broke a longstanding tradition and drafted Matthew Golden in the 1st round. But plenty of teams were still relying on him as a high-upside WR3/flex this year and beyond, especially in deeper leagues. And after notching the highest target share of any Packers pass-catcher (23%) in Week 1, a little hope had been restored.

Now Reed will likely miss the majority of the season with a broken collarbone. With Tucker Kraft taking center stage (more on him later), Romeo Doubs looking better than expected, and Christian Watson getting a surprising one-year contract extension, it might be time to move on from Reed if there are any rebuilders/Packers owners ready to absorb the hit.

Patchwork Pivot: Deebo Samuel

I’ve apologized for drastically undervaluing the recent Washington acquisition in drafts, and I’ll probably continue doing so once a week until he stops looking like Deebo Classic. He’s 29 years old and has an extensive enough injury history that his price tag shouldn’t be too devastating if you need WR depth.

Long-term Pivot: Elic Ayomanor

Kendall Valenzuela urged redraft managers to “run, don’t walk” to grab rookie Ayomanor off waivers, but I’ll go one step further. Sprint, don’t run to trade for the future Titans WR1 in dynasty. 

Despite leading the team in Air Yards and being neck-and-neck with Calvin Ridley in target share, he still remains just WR50 on KTC. Get in now while the price is relatively low.

Mark Andrews - AAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

It’s time to panic. Through two weeks—two healthy weeks—Mark Andrews has seven total yards. (A number so low they force me to spell it out rather than type the actual number.) 

Andrews also has a lowly 10% Targets Per Route Run and a measly 9% Target Share. Those are Cole Kmet numbers, folks. This is bad. This is so bad.

…For redraft. But this is about dynasty, and the Ravens' tight end has earned the right to go through some lulls on our dynasty rosters.

Flashback to 2023: Before his fibula/ankle injury in Week 11, Andrews was on a season-long pace of 110 targets and nearly 1,000 yards. He was running 86% of the routes and enjoying a 23% target share. It was a similar story in the back half of 2024, after he seemed to fully recover from that injury. So please, don’t trade him away for peanuts.

Patchwork Pivot: Zach Ertz

If you’re not confident starting Andrews until he proves himself again…I totally get it. Send a 3rd round rookie pick for Ertz, who’s been a key cog in the Washington offense and should continue to be a short-yardage king with Austin Ekeler out for the season.

Long-term Pivot: Tucker Kraft

I said it in last Saturday’s newsletter and I’ll say it again: Tucker Kraft has a legitimate shot at the TE1 throne. I don’t think it’s out of line to consider him the next George Kittle. In 2024, Kraft paced all tight ends in Yards After Catch Per Reception and Broken Tackles, while finishing 11th in Yards Per Target among all qualified pass-catchers.

At cost, I’d take him over Sam LaPorta and Colston Loveland.

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