Fantasy Football Mismatch Report Week 1: Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson And More

Football at its core is a game that features teams attempting to exploit mismatches against each other. This is accomplished through smart X's and O's strategy as well as by simply having some beastly Jimmys and Joes to lean on in the personnel department. While none of us alleged fantasy experts should be confused as professional coaches, we do largely attempt to accomplish the same goal while prepping for any given week: Identity and exploit the biggest mismatches to our advantage.

This brings us to today's goal: Breaking down some of the week's biggest mismatches in an attempt to get an edge in fantasy football land.

A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn things into a one-way street as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Mismatches for Fantasy Football Week 1

Could Joe Burrow be overwhelmed by pressure this week?

It sure looks like it based on combined 2024 pressure rates between this week's offensive line and pass-rush matchups.

Joe Burrow's matchup is technically tied for the third-worst of the week when looking at combined pressure rate, but this doesn't even fully consider the likely improved defensive line the Browns are trotting out this season. Their likely big three in the middle features:

• Four-time All Pro EDGE Myles Garrett has led the league's second- and first-ranked pass rush in team pressure rate over the last two seasons. Here's to hoping the hip injury that sidelined Garrett for Thursday's practice isn't too serious.
• DT Mason Graham AKA the fifth overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft and someone who made me VERY sad last November.
• DT Maliek Collins signed a two-year, $20 million deal this offseason after spending the previous three years in Houston. He ranked 27th in PFF pass rush grade among 147 qualified interior defenders last season.

Throw in a still-solid backend that includes perennial stud CB Denzel Ward—Ja'Marr Chase's choice for the toughest corner he's faced—and there should be at least some concern about the Bengals passing game operating at the peak of its powers in this Week 1 road spot.

Of course, Burrow could also just play the position better than almost anyone out there. His mixtape of literally sprinting up in the pocket in the face of pressure last season was unlike anything I've seen.

More QBs who could be doing their best David Bowie impressions include: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Ward, Brock Purdy, J.J. McCarthy and Russell Wilson. Obviously Purdy is basically the only guy a good amount of fantasy managers will be relying on this week—he's still in play as a low-end QB1 and proved capable of overcoming Mike Macdonald's schematic wizardry with QB6 and QB13 fantasy finishes in two matchups with the Seahawks last season.

Guess who could have ALL day to throw this week? Well, the numbers say Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix and Tua Tagovailoa. The T-Law spot is particularly enticing given the potential for Liam Coen's play-calling voodoo to bring out the best of the alleged generational 25-year-old signal-caller. Lawrence was featured as one of the position's biggest risers of the week in the Thursday edition of The Fantasy Life Show.

The Mount Rushmore of best RB run-game matchups

The following chart denotes every offense's combined *RB* rush yards before contact from 2024.

We already saw Saquon Barkley do his thing against the Cowboys, leaving Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey … and Tyrone Tracy as the next men up when it comes to best matchups on the ground. Hey, one of these isn't like the others!

Now, the Giants spent an early Day 3 pick on Cam Skattebo for a reason, but a prolonged August hamstring injury seemingly has the rookie on the outside looking in when it comes to projected Week 1 work. In fact, Fantasy Life Projections have this backfield pretty clearly pointing in Tracy's direction.

The rising second-year talent needs to do a better job holding onto the football this year—ball security, job security!—but Tracy does deserve credit for ripping off some home runs and generally looking the part of a #good RB during his first professional season. The fact he wound up racking up 1,123 yards and 6 scores in 2024 after spending much of his collegiate career playing WR is particularly impressive. The hopeful healthy return of stud LT Andrew Thomas and a relatively more competent passing game should only help matters here.

This brings us to Sunday's matchup against Washington, who joined the Panthers as the only two front-sevens to allow north of two rush yards before contact per carry to opposing RBs last season. Give 35-year-old ironman Bobby Wagner credit for continuing to roam the middle of the field, but this defensive line is putting a lot on the shoulders of fellow old man Von Miller picking up the slack for departed EDGE Dante Fowler (Cowboys) and two-time pro bowler Jonathan Allen (Vikings). PFF ranked the Commanders defensive line as the second-worst group in the league entering the 2025 season.

Don't get too carried away, but Tracy is set up very nicely in this spot and deserves to be ranked as a low-end RB2. I would start him ahead of guys like Breece Hall, D'Andre Swift and Isiah Pacheco, among others.

More RBs with plus matchups on the ground: Feature James Conner, the Vikings' new-look two-back duo Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, as well as whoever the hell winds up leading this Jaguars backfield. I tend to think Travis Etienne will get the first crack at things, but don't discount Bhayshul Tuten eventually making his presence felt. He's one of my favorite handcuff bench stashes still available in plenty of ESPN/Yahoo leagues.

Tough sledding ahead: Things aren't looking too great for the Steelers, Titans, Patriots or Dolphins this week in the whole "open up big run lanes" department. Now, volume can solve inefficiency problems in a hurry—especially when it includes a lot of work in the pass game. This should give Jaylen Warren, Tony Pollard, TreVeyon Henderson, and De'Von Achane ample opportunities to still provide some fantasy goodness, even if a big day on the ground might be a bit more unlikely than usual.

If you want passing yards, Lions-Packers is the game for you

We're talking about two of the week's top-three advantages in combined pass yards per dropback here!

Now, a healthier Lions defense and Micah Parsons-aided Packers group should certainly lead to better performances from both squads on that side of the ball, but at the same time we shouldn't discount what these passing attacks are capable of when healthy.

On the Detroit side of things, replacing Ben Johnson is far from ideal, but this offense continues to employ plenty of playmakers, and Jared Goff just got done putting together his best season … ever.

And then there are the Packers, who are unfortunately dealing with several WR injuries with Jayden Reed (foot), Dontayvion Wicks (calf) and Savion Williams (hamstring) all seemingly at risk of joining Christian Watson (knee, PUP) on the sideline this week.

The good news: Jordan Love is healthy, which wasn't the case for most of last season. Reminder: Love severely sprained his MCL in Week 1 on the slippery Brazilian turf before badly hurting his groin in Week 8. We never quite got back to seeing the same guy who was playing some of the best football in the league down the stretch of 2023.

Overall, the Lions-Packers 47.5-point game total is tied for the third-highest mark of Week 1. Don't be surprised if both passing games manage to flirt with some quality numbers.

There should also be plenty of aerial success from the … Ravens, Bills, and based on last year's numbers, the Vikings, although we'll find out if J.J. McCarthy is really as good as Thor Nystrom says he is. Still, trusting in JJ means trusting in Kevin O'Connell, who has gotten more out of less than pretty much any play caller over the past three seasons considering the limited QBs he's dealt with. Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson should accordingly be started in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes, while Adam Thielen is also a sneaky-solid deeper-league FLEX play during Jordan Addison's suspension.

Local birds beware: On the bad side of things, the Bears, Giants, Patriots and Browns profile as the five-worst passing attacks, although each either has different QBs under center or different leadership calling the shots compared to what the groups were largely dealing with last year. I'm most confident in the Brownies overcoming these numbers, which is admittedly a terrifying sentence to type out, but hey, we are talking about the Bengals here, and Joe Flacco quietly leads the NFL in passing yards per game (283.4) over the past two seasons when only counting his 13 starts/extended appearances.

Get your popcorn ready for Ravens-Bills on Sunday Night Football

We don't need fancy numbers to explain why Lamar Jackson facing off with Josh Allen in prime time in a rematch of last year's thrilling AFC Divisional Round matchup is exciting, but hey, why not provide some anyway?

The following chart denotes every offense's matchup in combined EPA per play based on their 2024 performance.

Underdog watch: There are five teams with an on-paper advantage in combined EPA per play, yet are underdogs in the betting markets: Chargers (+3), Dolphins (+1.5), Raiders (+2.5), Lions (+2.5) and Texans (+3).

Blowout alert: The Broncos, Commanders and Bengals rather easily boast the largest expected offensive advantages in combined EPA per play.

Shootout city: Other than the Ravens-Bills matchup, Bucs-Falcons, Panthers-Jaguars and Giants-Commanders boast the highest game-wide numbers.

This could be ugly: Titans-Broncos, Bears-Vikings, Raiders-Patriots and Dolphins-Colts profile as the four matchups that could feature the most total offensive despair.

Those are some banged-up secondaries

This is our only non-analytical section, but obviously injuries help cause mismatches come game time, so here we are! Make sure you check out Fantasy Life's weekly Friday Injury Report for full updates on the league's injury situations, but I also like to go through injury reports to get an idea of which teams are dealing with multiple injured players across one position group. This is something that the great Billy Walkers talked about using as an edge over the years in "Gambler," which is a pretty great read if you're into that kind of thing.

Anyway, two position groups in particular stick out as having big-time potential deficits in their secondary this week:

• Bills: Have two injured corners in Christian Benford (groin) and Tre'Davious White (groin) in addition to Maxwell Hairston (knee, IR), who is already out. Not great when you're about to face that Lamar Jackson guy!
• Dolphins: CB Ethan Bonner (hamstring) is banged up, which is problematic in a room that traded Jalen Ramsey and has already had to deal with preseason injuries to guys like CB Cam Smith (undisclosed, NFI) , Artie Burns (knee, IR), Jason Maitre (undisclosed, IR) and Kader Kohou (knee, IR). The current room looks … not great! Good news for Colts pass catchers … if Daniel Jones is up to the challenge.

Thanks for reading everyone and best of luck in Week 1!

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