Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings Last Looks: Chase Brown, 49ers Backfield And More
Chris Allen takes a last look at the fantasy football rankings for Week 1 of the NFL season, reviewing to see which players may rise or fall before Sunday.
I can’t sit still if I’m around people who are engaged in an activity.
It’s not necessarily a fear of missing out. I don’t need to be involved in the action. However, there’s a need to do something. Stand there with a drink in my hand. Look at my phone. There’s a saying about idle hands, but it escapes me. Anyway, you’ll have a similar sensation today and tomorrow morning.
It’ll be our first Sunday of live-action football! The energy and excitement will push you to look at, check, and double-check your roster. But we’re just reacting to impulses. Let’s use some fresh information from the Fantasy Life crew to guide us instead.
Latest and Greatest for Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings
On the bright side, at least the 49ers clued us into an injury to Christian McCaffrey on a Thursday instead of at the last minute.
The positives? McCaffrey talked to the media. Admittedly, the same sequence occurred last year, but the 29-year-old RB is at least acknowledging his history with lower-body ailments. In either case, now we need to figure out what to do.
“Yes, we did hear Kyle Shanahan say last week that Brian Robinson is their No. 2 back, but Isaac Guerendo is healthy, though. He had that shoulder injury at the end of preseason, but he has managed to practice in full all week.”
Ian and Freedman went through their initial reactions to the news on Friday, and Hartitz brings up a good point. Brian Robinson likely earned early-mid or late-round draft capital in your league. But Isaac Guerendo might still be out there. Regardless, Freedman will be doing a sweep of his projections and rankings first thing on Saturday, once we have more news from the beat reports. In the meantime, McCaffrey still holds the top spot in our consensus ranks for now.
Brian Robinson would vault into the Top 24 at RBs if McCaffrey sits. Despite the tough matchup against Seattle, the carry rate would be tough to pass up, even if Guerendo takes some of the receiving work. But outside of the major injury news, there’s still a list of other skill players with the dreaded “Q tag” we’re monitoring before kickoff.
- RBs
- De'Von Achane (calf)
- Roschon Johnson (foot)
- Kyle Monangai (hamstring)
- WRs
- Malik Nabers (back)
- Jauan Jennings (calf)
- Christian Kirk (hamstring)
- Darnell Mooney (shoulder)
- Jayden Reed (foot)
Christian Kirk’s absence sent a ripple through the spreadsheets, with Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel becoming the beneficiaries of the veteran’s misfortune. But even with the slot role in Houston up for grabs, neither should crack your starting lineup.
However, the domino effect for D'Andre Swift is yet to take effect. Johnson hasn’t practiced all week, and rookie Monangai has only put in limited sessions. Any increase to Swift’s touch share should boost him past his 22.0 consensus rank in PPR leagues. Today’s news should give us more clarity.
The Weather Report
Weather doesn’t matter.
OK, I say that as the guy who’s been studying their impacts since 2018. But I’ll clarify. Yes, the elements do play a role. However, it takes extreme situations for us to measure a noticeable impact.
Game-related metrics, such as QB accuracy and play volume, don’t start to fall off until we reach windspeeds of 20 mph or heavy rainfall occurs. Sure, I dig into the weeds to confirm my process. And I mean “into the weeds” in almost the literal sense, as I do have a database of the types of grass each field uses. Before you laugh, my point is that I’ll share some of my knowledge here each week if there’s anything to worry about on the radar. For Week 1, there’s not much to consider:
- Game: Raiders at Patriots
- Conditions: Rain, 60.0% chance, 0.05 inches per hour (max)
Precipitation rate is like figuring out how fast the wind is blowing. More rain or higher velocities carry more risk. However, the projected rate is manageable based on previous games I’ve studied. If it changes, you’ll see a post from me on social media.
I Hope Everyone Else is Wrong
Every week, you’ll look at a player’s projections or ranking and feel the conflict in your gut. You were expecting more points for your player or a higher position among their peers. The spreadsheets and analysts are wrong! At least, that’s what you’re thinking. But I had a similar reaction when I saw where Chase Brown sat among the other RBs.
Just one spot above Achane? Isn’t Achane hurt?
Now, for transparency, I’ll put my Bengals’ fandom on the table. I recognize my bias. But let’s think about Brown’s usage in ’24.
- Rushing Attempt: 68.0%, 6th
- Target Share: 13.0%, 6th
- Goal-line Carry Rate: 85.0%, 5th
Brown is the only RB with top-6 marks in the volume metrics we should prioritize. Cincinnati didn’t draft an RB in Tahj Brooks until Day 3. They let Zack Moss go (injury designation) and kept 29-year-old Samaje Perine. Brown has the path to compete with the early-round RBs, but has a fringe top-10 rank. Here’s one spot where I hope the rankings crew will need to adjust their position on a player come next week.
Going Against the Grain
There are always a few bench players you draft with no intention of starting until bye weeks begin. Or, you’re waiting for the right matchup. However, this week could be the right scenario, but the ranks don’t reflect it. Indianapolis’ WRs find themselves in that situation for Week 1.
To be fair, I don’t see how we could have ranked Michael Pittman or Josh Downs any higher. But at the same time, them facing off against Miami’s secondary has the potential for top-24 results. I noted Downs specifically in my WR/CB Matchups column yesterday.
“The Dolphins drafted Marshall in the fifth round to (apparently) be their slot corner. Note: Marshall played a total of 59 snaps covering the interior in college. Recently-acquired S Minkah Fitzpatrick hasn’t spent significant time there in almost two years. There’s already a strong chance Downs will earn enough volume to make his way into the top 24 at the position. With an easy matchup, he’ll be the sneaky FLEX play you’ll need for Week 1.”
But here’s where evaluating game environments and player roles can be key. Let’s say you’ve got Zay Flowers (with a tough opener against the Bills) or Chris Olave (who gets Spencer Rattler throwing him the ball). Their path to targets and fantasy production doesn’t seem as clear, which may warrant a roster swap. Regardless, while the rank is valid, we should still assess each player’s value relative to our own roster before making final lineup decisions.
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