Rest-of-Season (ROS) Fantasy Football Rankings: Upgrade Justin Herbert, Sell Travis Etienne
Geoff Ulrich breaks down how to approach the rest-of-season (ROS) fantasy football rankings to put your team in a position to succeed.
The rest-of-season (ROS) fantasy football rankings provide a comprehensive overview of projected player performances for the season’s remaining games; they are here to help… but they are also not the Ten Commandments.
They should serve as a North Star that guides you toward making informed decisions regarding trades, waiver wire transactions, and starting lineups.
You can find our full set of rest-of-season fantasy football rankings here. They're free for everyone, but as always, if you want a deeper look, consider grabbing a Tier 1 or Tier 2 subscription (use code GRIND for a 20% discount!).
With that in mind, I’m going to take a look at some of the biggest movers in the ROS ranks going into Week 3. Some we’ll be targeting as nice buy-low options or “players to trust”; players who the consensus is likely too low on, given the poor start or usage to begin the season.
But this just isn’t going to be a plain old “bullish takes only” article either. I’ll also recommend a couple of names that I think the consensus is too high on, and that I’d look to sell high on as well—aka, players to distrust.
The Week 3 ROS highlights are below.
Players to Trust In The Rest-of-Season Rankings Ahead Of Week 3
Justin Herbert | ROS Rank: QB5
Herbert comes into this week ranked as QB5 in total points and also ranked as QB5 in our ROS consensus. Considering one of the names above him in points right now is Daniel Jones, I don’t see any reason why he can’t continue to hold a place in the top-five QBs throughout the season. The Chargers have looked like a completely different offense this year with the addition of Keenan Allen and the emergence of Quentin Johnston. Via nfeloapp.com, they lead the league in PROE, and Herbert is second in yards per attempt (9.2).
Add in Herbert’s 10% designed run rate through two weeks, which is double his designed run rate from last season, and you have a very sustainable situation for continued fantasy success.
Chuba Hubbard | ROS Rank: RB19
In the Week 3 Drops column, I was going to make mention of Rico Dowdle as a player you didn’t need to hold onto anymore—then I remembered that no one needs me to tell them to drop Rico Dowdle.
That’s because Hubbard has taken a stranglehold on the Panthers' backfield. In Week 2, Hubbard played on 63 of a possible 82 snaps and ran an impressive 43 routes, seeing six targets and putting up a 5-39-1 line as a receiver. After ceding a lot of LDD snaps to Dowdle in Week 1, he took the majority of the third-down snaps vs the Cardinals and put up his second impressive receiving line in a row. This essentially cements him as a sort of gameflow-proof RB who should be able to maintain or improve on his current top-20 position among RBs the rest of the way.
Other players to trust: Javonte Williams (RB23) and Zay Flowers (WR19)
Players To Avoid Ahead of Week 3 In The ROS Rankings
Omarion Hampton | ROS Rank: RB20
After being ineffective for much of the game last week, Hampton was replaced on the final couple of drives by Najee Harris, who helped seal the game with a seven-yard carry, and ended the game with eight carries, the same number as Hampton. Not a great look.
I already mentioned the Chargers have been number one in the league thus far in pass rate over expectation, and while you might expect some regression from a Jim Harbaugh team in that stat eventually, it’s also been working, while running the ball with Hampton has not.
Via NFL Next Gen stats, the rookie is 45th out of 50 graded players in rush yards over expected per attempt (-1.3 per attempt). RYOE/ATT is essentially the difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards per rush attempt, so Hampton doesn’t look like a player ready for a breakout anytime soon.
At this point, Hampton finishing well outside the top 25 RBs in scoring is becoming a more likely scenario by the week.
James Conner | ROS Rank: RB21
I’d be wary of Conner, despite the fact that he’s maintained a top-25 rank in our consensus this week.
The veteran played just 30 snaps in Week 2, compared to 25 for Trey Benson, so we are near an equal split in playing time already. The bigger worry is how ineffective and slow Conner has looked running the ball as he’s averaging just 3.2 ypc despite facing two weaker opponents to start the season.
Another worry? The Cardinals have begun trying out Benson as a receiver. Versus the Panthers, he played on 85% of the LDD snaps, and he looked very sharp in that role, converting four of six targets into catches while going for 30 yards as a receiver.
Conners has saved himself by scoring TDs in his first two games, but you can’t rely on that to happen every week. Maybe the Cardinals decide to turn to him more as the season progresses, but this is a situation I’d try to avoid at all costs for the time being.
Other Players to Avoid: Marvin Harrison Jr. (ROS consensus rank: RB18, ADP 42).
Buy-Low Players To Target For Rest of Season
Jared Goff | ROS Rank: QB19
Even with the horrific first game where he had no time to pass, Goff’s still sixth in yards per attempt and was airing it out a ton vs the Bears, even when ahead by multiple scores (protect Dam Campbell at all costs!). If the Lions stay true to this formula of giving Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa plenty of deep targets, it should mean more spike weeks ahead for Goff—who is currently QB6 in scoring despite being QB19 in our consensus ROS ranks.
Overall, he should be a great vs weaker pass rushes and a player you might be able to get for really cheap if he gets shut down by the Ravens' pass rush this week. If you have injury issues QB (or just need a streaming upgrade), he’s a player I’d have high on my watch list for waivers or trades.
Calvin Ridley | ROS Rank: WR26
Neither Ridley nor the entire Tennessee offense has looked great to start the season, but this is a situation where you should consider the circumstances. He’s had two brutal matchups vs the Broncos and Rams, who rank eighth and first in EPA per play vs the pass this season (via RBSDM.com).
Moreover, I’m not sure who else the Titans are going to throw the ball to? Elic Ayomanor is a nice player, but projects as more of a No. 2 or No. 3 WR, and the Titans don’t possess an elite pass-catching TE. Via the Fantasy Life Utlization Report, Ridley still has a very solid 25% target share in this offense through two weeks and will have much better matchups ahead. I view him as someone who can still creep into the top 20 WRs by year's end and outperform his current WR26 consensus rank.
Sell-High Candidates Based On The Rest-of-Season Rankings
Travis Etienne | ROS Rank: RB13
Etienne’s ranked 13th this week, but he’s a player I would be looking to sell high on this week if there was a solid trade offer on the table.
Despite the fourth-year back putting in another solid outing and leading the Jaguars with 71 yards on 14 carries vs the Bengals, it was Bhayshul Tuten who stole the show. The rookie took just a 25% snap share, but made the most of it, producing 5.3 ypc and racking up 32 receiving yards on just two catches, one of which went for a TD.
Tuten’s 33% targets per route run rate is also something to note, as the Jaguars clearly wanted to get him involved in that portion of the game. Overall, I would fear a 50/50 split or even a complete Tuten takeover coming. He’s linked to the current regime in Jacksonville, who would undoubtedly love to see their guy take the reins at some point, and a player who, at worst, is going to cut into Etienne’s PPR upside the rest of the way.
Drake Maye | ROS Rank: QB6
Maye has had one poor game where he went for 15.8 FP and ended the week as QB18 and one where he went for 26.3 FP and ended as QB3. To me, his current consensus rank as QB6 just puts too much emphasis on his performance vs the Dolphins, who are pretty clearly a bottom-three team (if not the outright worst team in the league) through two weeks.
The 6.2 YPA in Week 1 vs the Raiders is more in line with his stats from last season, and with tougher matchups ahead, we’ll likely see regression from him as a passer. I get that it’s tough out there in the QB streets right now with multiple big names hurt, but if someone was overvaluing him as a top-five-to-eight QB the rest of the way, I’d not hesitate to try and strike a deal while his value is hot.
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