Week 1 Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football: Slow Start for Ashton Jeanty?

This is something of a philosophical question, but exactly what makes a prediction bold?

If something is a coin flip, forecasting it is not bold. Even if something is 25% likely to occur, predicting it does not seem sufficiently striking.

What about 20%? Or 10%?

Meh.

If something happens one out of 10 times, can anyone really be surprised when it happens?

What Makes a Prediction Bold?

I'm maybe the wrong person to go through this thought exercise—because life has numbed my soul to the point that almost nothing shocks me—but if something doesn't have at least a 5% probability (and ideally far less than that), then it's not audacious enough to qualify as a bold prediction.

So there we are. To be bold, something must be notably unlikely.

But that can't be all, right?

Let's say you and I are sitting on the front porch, randomly counting blue cars (yes, that's an obscure '90s music reference), and I say to you: "I bet we'll see an orange 1970 Ford Bronco drive by within the next minute."

And then it happens.

Nailed it. Amazing prediction.

At the same time—it's not bold, because it doesn't matter at all. If something is unlikely but also unimportant, can it be bold?

I think not.

If I predict a backup TE will score two TDs in a game, and then he does, that's an incredible prognostication … but it's not a useful one—because no one will be starting him in a fantasy lineup anyway. For a prediction to be bold, it must regard an occurrence both doubtful and consequential. Implausible … yet actionable.

So that's what you're gonna get in this piece.

Each week, I'll make 3-5 bold football/fantasy calls in this article.

Fantasy Football Bold Calls: Accuracy vs. Directionality

Let's say I do this article for 17 weeks and make 3-5 bold calls each week. That's 51-85 predictions for the season.

If I project 85 events that have no greater than a 5% chance of happening, then we'd expect me to get 4.25 bold calls correct this year.

What happens if I do 51 predictions with an average 2% probability? I'm looking at getting just one bold call this NFL season.

In terms of accuracy, I'm going to be wrong a vast supermajority of the time. And I'm OK with that.

For this piece, I care less about accuracy than about directionality.

Example: Let's say I predict Brian Thomas to have 200 yards and three TDs. Instead, he has 199 and two and finishes as the No. 1 WR on the slate with 20 fantasy points more than the No. 2 WR. Technically, I would be wrong. But directionally, I would be deliciously right.

It's well within the realm of reality that I will finish this season with zero accurate bold calls. That can happen when one dares to be truly audacious.

But if I'm directionally correct on half my bold calls—if I'm high and low on the right guys at the right time—then I'll consider this weekly article a significant success.

Rankings, Projections & Content

I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which will reflect any updated opinions I have after I submit this article.

For more of my player analysis, check out my Week 1 Freedman's Favorites series (via my Fantasy Life author page).

For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Abbreviations I might use are at the end of the piece.

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Alright, that's more than enough of an introduction. (In future editions of this series, I'll get to the good stuff much faster. I promise.)

Let's get to it: The Oracle's Week 1 bold calls!

The Oracle's Week 1 Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football

RB Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) at Patriots

In 2024, Ashton Jeanty had an elite 2,739 yards and 30 TDs from scrimmage as a true junior. He won the Maxwell and Doak Walker Awards as the best all-around player and RB in college football. He earned unanimous first-team All-American accolades and finished No. 2 in Heisman Trophy voting.

And then this April he was selected No. 6 overall by the Raiders.

I expect him to have a good career. Maybe a great one.

And the matchup with the Patriots looks good for his NFL debut. Last year, the Pats were No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5).

But I expect the Pats to be significantly better in run defense this year.

Last year, they were without DT Christian Barmore for most of the campaign, but this year he's ready for Week 1, and this offseason the team added DTs Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga, EDGEs Harold Landry and K'Lavon Chaisson, and LB Robert Spillane.

Most importantly, the team hired defensive HC Mike Vrabel.

In his three final seasons as the Titans' HC (2021-23), his defense was No. 1 in rush EPA (-0.132) and No. 3 in rush SR (37.1%, per RBs Don't Matter).

And in that time, his defense was always in the bottom six in fantasy boost allowed to RBs.

2023: -1.3 (No. 27)
2022: -3.0 (No. 30
2021: -2.5 (No. 30)

I can imagine Vrabel building his defensive plan around trying to stop Jeanty … and then there are all the negative factors for the Raiders.

They're a West Coast team traveling east for an early 1 pm ET game. They're +2.5 dogs on the road. They have a subpar offensive line. And their offense could have some transitional struggles early in the year with new HC Pete Carroll, OC Chip Kelly, and QB Geno Smith.

If the Pats focus their defense on stopping Jeanty, and if the offense doesn't get production from anyone other than TE Brock Bowers, then it could be a bad day for the Raiders in general and Jeanty in particular.

Bold Prediction: Jeanty gets fewer than 50 scrimmage yards and no TDs.

San Francisco 49ers (Defense) at Seahawks

The 49ers last year ranked No. 29 in points per game allowed (25.6), but I expect them to be markedly better this year.

Not only did former DC Robert Saleh return to the team this offseason, but then the 49ers revamped their defensive roster with the addition of rookies EDGE Mykel Williams, DTs Alfred Collins and C.J. West, CB Upton Stout, FS Marques Sigle and LB Nick Martin, plus veterans EDGE Bryce Huff and FS Jason Pinnock.

The secondary could be shaky: The team lost CB Charvarius Ward and SS Talanoa Hufanga in free agency, and FS Malik Mustapha (knee, PUP) is out.

So I expect No. 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to get his. But I'm skeptical of the Seahawks' offense in general.

They have a bad OL, and all that has changed since the end of last year is that LG Laken Tomlinson has been replaced by rookie Grey Zabel. The first-rounder might be great, but I doubt an interior OL player can transform a unit in his first NFL start.

And I'm dubious about QB Sam Darnold and OC Klint Kubiak. They're both new in Seattle, so the offense might struggle in the transition … and they're playing against HC Kyle Shanahan, who knows both of them from their time together on the 2023 49ers (Darnold was backup QB, Kubiak was passing game coordinator).

What can Darnold and Kubiak possibly do together that Shanahan can't imagine and plan for?

On August 1, the Seahawks were +1.5 underdogs, and the over/under was 45.5 points. Now, the spread is +2.5, and the consensus total is 43.5.

Last year, Darnold averaged 254.1 yards passing per game … but this week his passing yardage prop is as low as 200.5 (BetMGM, per our Prop Bet Finder).

The betting market is investing in the idea that the Seahawks and Darnold will struggle in this game.

I think we should follow the money.

Bold Prediction: 49ers hold the Seahawks to zero points.

WR DJ Moore (Bears) vs. Vikings

If QB Caleb Williams gets a pass for how he played last year in suboptimal circumstances, then I think the same leniency should be afforded DJ Moore, who (unlike Williams) has actually had significant NFL success.

Moore is only 28 years old, so he's still in his physical prime, and in his 2023 campaign with the Bears he looked like one of the league's best WRs with 1,364 yards and eight TDs receiving.

With the maturation of Williams and the addition of offensive playcalling HC Ben Johnson, the Bears' offense could be markedly better this year … and I love that Moore's going against the Vikings, who last year were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.8).

Based on where they've historically lined up, I expect Moore to face CB Jeff Okudah most, and that's a highly desirable matchup. For his career, Okudah has allowed an atrocious 10.0 yards per target.

Plus, it helps that Moore gets regular work in the run game (57-431-1 rushing for career).

I think we see a big bounce-back campaign from Moore in 2025, starting in Week 1.

Bold Prediction: Moore has 100+ yards and 2+ TDs from scrimmage.

WR Josh Downs (Colts) vs. Dolphins

If you go into our Utilization Report and look at all 2024 WRs with a full-time role (65% route rate), these are the names you'll see at the top of the list in target rate.

When his team passes the ball, Downs is targeted at an elite rate, and with QB Daniel Jones as the starter, I expect the Colts to pass at an increased frequency.

In Week 1, Downs plays in the perfect passing environment of Lucas Oil Stadium, and he's facing a secondary with four new starters, including Day 3 rookie CB Jason Marshall, against whom Downs should run the supermajority of his routes in the slot.

Get ready for a PPR pleasure festival.

Bold Prediction: Downs has 10+ receptions.

Buccaneers at Falcons

The over/under for this game is 47.5. That's relatively high. Only Bills-Ravens (50.5) has a higher total.

But I think this total isn't high enough.

Last year, these two teams put up 66 points in a Week 5 overtime thriller and 57 points in a Week 8 rematch.

Both teams last year had exploitable pass defenses with identical dropback EPAs (0.019, No. 23). And both QBs are willing to let the ball fly (based on their playing styles and career marks).