Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings Risers and Fallers: Trevor Lawrence, James Conner, and More
Dwain McFarland breaks down his risers and fallers in his fantasy rankings ahead of Week 1 of the season.
It is time to set our fantasy lineups for Week 1, and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 1 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those start-sit decisions.
As a reminder, you can access all of the utilization data that I use for these pieces with a FantasyLife+ subscription for 20% off with code: DWAIN.
Risers In The Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings
Trevor Lawrence | QB | Jaguars
After a forgettable 2024 campaign, averaging 16.3 points per game (PPG), many fantasy managers faded Lawrence in 2025 drafts. He was the QB20 according to consensus ADP.
While I haven't been a huge Lawrence supporter, he was my third-most drafted QB this offseason thanks to his spike potential as a rusher and a passer. Despite not living up to his No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick price tag, Lawrence has QB8 and QB12 finishes on his resume.
In a new offense under Liam Coen featuring Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, we could see T-Law climb to new heights. Week 1 looks like as good a time as any for the Jaguars' signal caller to get the engine revving.
Jacksonville sports the sixth-highest team total (25) based on Vegas odds, facing a Panthers defense that provided the fourth-highest fantasy boost to QBs (4.4 PPG) to opposing signal callers.
When you add it all up, Lawrence profiles extremely well in my projections.
- Floor: 9.9 (7th)
- Median: 17.6 (7th)
- Xfinity Best (Ceiling): 29.9 (6th)
These numbers are based on the variance associated with each statistical category that makes up fantasy points (e.g., passing yards, passing TDs, passing INTs, rushing yards, rushing TDs).
Lawrence is my QB9 for Week 1 and is available in 49% of Yahoo leagues.
QB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News
- Drake Maye | Patriots: Maye played 90% of the snaps in nine games as a rookie. He averaged 18.6 fantasy points in those contests. Maye ranked second in scramble rate (11%) behind only Jayden Daniels, and could see more work in the designed run game under Josh McDaniels. Maye offers the No. 9 median projection (17.4) and the No. 8 Xfinity Best projection (29.4). Maye was the consensus QB16 based on ADP this summer, but is my QB12 in Week 1.
- Jordan Love | Packers: The Packers carry the sixth-best team total (25) in what could be a shootout against the Lions. On one hand, the Lions' defense gave up the seventh-largest fantasy boost to QBs (2.5 PPG). On the other hand, they were very banged up last season. On someone else's hand, the bookmakers are telling us they don't care. Love's Xfinity Best projection is held down a tad by the lack of rushing upside, but this is a good spot for the Packers' signal caller. He is my QB15.
Chase Brown | RB | Bengals
Brown demolished fantasy leagues after taking over a full-time role in Week 9. Over that span, he notched the No. 1 Utilization Score in the NFL (95), averaging the fourth-most fantasy points per game (20.9).
Do you like this sort of cool data? Me too, that's why we made it for you! Use Code: Dwain for a 20% first-year discount on a Tier 2 Fantasy Life+ subscription to get access to the Utilization Tools. Let's go, y'all!!!
The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites (fourth-highest) over the Browns and carry a 26.5 team total (second-best), which has historically been a fantastic combination for backs. Cincinnati is a pass-first offense, but this game sets up very well for Brown.
Projections:
- Median: 15.4 (RB4)
- Xfinity Best: 32.1 (RB4)
Brown was the consensus RB11 based on ADP, but he immediately climbs to RB6 for me in Week 1. That's a SMASH play.
James Conner | RB | Cardinals
Conner got a little more respect in fantasy drafts this summer than in previous seasons (finally), but he was still the RB20. He is set up to outperform that out of the gate.
The Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites (second-best) over the Saints. Our NFL Betting Game Model, from the great Matthew Freedman (with help from our new data scientist Alex Veroulis), is slightly less confident, but Conner still notches the fifth-highest spread at 4.8. With the sixth-highest team total on the slate (25), Conner is ready to start the season on a heater.
Projections:
- Median 13.6 (RB13)
- Xfinity Best: 28.0 (RB16)
Conner is my RB16 this week, but offers high-end RB1 upside. That's a SMASH PLAY, y'all!
RB Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News
- RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins | Broncos: 8.5-point favorites and 25.5 team total. Sean Payton is one of the few coaches who have historically provided multiple usable RBs in the same season (Two RB1s in 2017; one RB1 and an RB2 in 2006 and 2011; two RB2s in 2008 and 2013; one RB1 and one RB3 in 2009 and 2014). The first two years in Denver weren't good, but the team made significant investments in their backfield with Harvey (Round 2 NFL Draft pick) and Dobbins (free agency). Harvey and Dobbins profile as borderline RB2s, and one of them will likely finish higher.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Commanders: Eight-point favorites and 25.75 team total. There are rumblings of a three-way split with Chris Rodriguez Jr. getting early-down work, but Week 1 still provides Bill with plenty of upside. My gut says he is still the reason the Commanders were willing to move on from Brian Robinson Jr. Bill is a mid-range RB3 with upside, making him flex-worthy out of the gate to kick off 2025.
Deebo Samuel | WR | Commanders
Samuel was the consensus WR36 based on ADP this summer; however, his Week 1 outlook against the Giants is hotter than the heat index in Texas on a midday run (not recommended).
The Commanders carry the fourth-best team total (25.75) and the Fantasy Life Betting Model likes them even more than that (27.45). They are six-point favorites over New York, so we could see a fair amount of running late, but Samuel has outs in that capacity.
The Commanders' newest toy is a perfect fit for Kliff Kingsbury's scheme.
WR Screen Targets
- 2024: 3rd-most
- 2022: 2nd
- 2021: 1st
WR RPO Targets
- 2024: 4th
- 2022: 10th
- 2021: 8th
WR Rush Atts
- 2024: 24th
- 2022: 8th
- 2021: 5th
Will Samuel remain healthy and productive all season? I don't know, but this is a SMASH spot for him in Week 1.
Samuel is a mid-range WR2 with upside against the Giants. Let's go out on a limb, why not? It's Week 1! Deebo is a SMASH play.
Xavier Worthy | WR | Chiefs
Worthy played like a madman down the stretch for the Chiefs after taking over a starting role. From Week 14 through the playoffs, he averaged 19 PPG over seven games. During that stretch, his underlying data points looked eerily similar to Rashee Rice when he broke out in a full-time role late in 2023 as a rookie.
- Targets: 25% (WR1-worthy)
- Air Yards: 21% (WR5-worthy)
- YPRR: 2.13 (WR2-worthy)
- Rush Attempts: 1.1 per game
The Year 2 receiver still has plenty to work on in his game, but he will get a chance to show off his growth early with Rice suspended for the first six games.
The Chiefs have a healthy team total (24.25) in what projects as a close game against the Chargers (three-point favorites) on Friday night—where you can catch our very own Peter Overzet on the NFL pregame show on YouTube.
Pete ranks No. 1 in all of our hearts, and one of his favorite young players, Xavier Worthy, is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.
WR Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News
- Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers: 25-point team total in a close game as 2.5-point favorites versus the Falcons. With Chris Godwin out of the lineup, the highly praised rookie steps into low-end WR2 territory out of the gate.
- Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings | 49ers: 23-point team total in a close game as a 2.5-point favorite versus the Seahawks. Pearsall had a strong finish to 2024, but his underlying peripherals still had questions, so I couldn't get him into the top 24. Still, with so many targets up for grabs, it's hard to push him too much lower—the 49ers' first-round pick from a year ago has a massive opportunity in Week 1. Pearsall is a high-end WR3 with high-end WR2 upside. Jennings returned to practice (calf/contract) this week. He delivered a 28% target share after taking over a full-time role last year when Brandon Aiyuk went down. If I were sure about his health, I would have him even higher. Jennings is a mid-range WR4 with WR2 upside.
- Travis Hunter | Jaguars: 25-point team total in a close game as 3.5-point favorites versus the Panthers. My WR32. I don't know how much Hunter will play offense, but he is listed as a starter on the offensive depth chart and a backup on defense. In such a juicy game environment, I am willing to gamble on the No. 2 draft pick as a WR3 with upside.
- Matthew Golden | Packers: 25-point team total in a close game as 2.5-point underdogs to the Lions. My WR36. With Jayden Reed battling a Jones fracture, Golden has a clear runway toward the WR1 role in Green Bay. In a shootout with Detroit, he could boom out of the gate, making him a low-end WR3 with WR2 upside.
- Keon Coleman | Bills: 26-point team total in a potential shootout against the Ravens (1.5-point favorites). Coleman didn't have the best underlying data last year (17% TPRR), but players can improve, and Khalil Shakir is coming back from a high-ankle sprain. Coleman is a boom-bust WR4, and we could find out quickly if he made strides over the offseason.
Mark Andrews | TE | Ravens
Andrews struggled last season with his fantasy PPG falling from 12.5 to 10.8. However, he was coming off a cracked fibula and ligament injury from the previous November. Additionally, he was in a car accident in August.
His play improved as the season progressed. Over 14 games from Week 6 forward (including the playoffs), he averaged 13.1 points with a 22% TPRR and a 79 Utilization Score.
With Isaiah Likely out, we can expect more than a 70% route participation out of the gate from one of the few tight ends that offers the game-breaking traits we look for in TEs. His combination of target earning and ability to work deeper down the field (10.8 average depth of target) is similar to former studs like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.
This man can pile up receptions, yards and offers massive TD upside. We have already seen that type of season from him once before in 2021 when he delivered 17.5 PPG.
The Ravens own the seventh-best team total (24.5) in what could be a shootout against the Bills as 1.5-point underdogs.
Andrews is a SMASH PLAY as my TE4 in Week 1.
TE Rapid Fire: Upgrades & Pending News
- Tyler Warren | Colts: 24.5-point team total as 1.5-point favorites over the Dolphins. If you follow my work, you know Warren is one of my cheat codes for the 2025 season. He is a perfect fit for Shane Steichen's heavy-RPO and heavy-play action offense. Right off the bat, he lands in a juicy game script. Warren is a mid-range TE1 with high-end TE1 upside in Week 1.
- Dallas Goedert | Eagles: 25.5-point team total as 8.5 favorites over the Cowboys. Philadelphia is a crowded offense that loves to pound the rock, which can be tough. However, the Eagles project for a ton of points in this one, and we could see everyone get fed. Goedert was drafted as the TE16, but is my TE12 against Dallas.
- Chig Okonkwo | Titans: 17-point team total as 8.5-point dogs to the Broncos. The Titans will need to throw early and often in this one, and Okonkwo saw excellent utilization to end last year as well as this preseason. He could also be the target Denver invites Cam Ward to look for if the game gets out of hand. Okonkwo is an under-the-coverage type of option (5.7 aDOT) similar to Evan Engram, and could operate as the safety valve in a trailing game script. Okonkwo is a high-end TE2.
Fallers In The Fantasy Football Rankings For Week 1
Justin Fields | QB | Jets
Signal callers who run the ball as well as Fields don't typically bust over the course of a season, but Week 1 is a tough spot against the Steelers. The Jets shamefully boast the second-worst team total of the weekend at 17.75 points as three-point underdogs.
Last season, the Steelers held opposing QBs 1.4 points below their season average, making them the fourth-toughest matchup.
Fields is a mid-range QB2 who belongs on your fantasy bench behind names like Lawrence, Maye, and Love, who were drafted after him this summer.
Tony Pollard | RB | Titans
Pollard is a tricky player to get your head around. Without Tyjae Spears (IR), the Titans should load him up with opportunities, which means he is a startable option. The challenge is that the Week 1 matchup against the Broncos is not ideal.
The Titans are 8.5-point underdogs and are not-so-proud owners of the lowest team total in the land at 17 points.
Pollard is a borderline RB2 this weekend, but should have better days ahead until Spears returns.
Garrett Wilson | WR | Jets
Let me clarify: I still believe Wilson is a baller and is going to lead this team in targets. Unfortunately, Justin Fields has averaged only 180 passing yards per game when playing at least 90% of the snaps, which is very hard to overcome. Can outlier seasons like DJ Moore happen? Yes, but I wouldn't count on it.
With the second-lowest team total on the slate (17.75) and pretty low overall offensive vibes through the preseason, we should temper expectations for Wilson in Week 1.
He was drafted as a mid-range WR2 option this summer, but ranks as a mid-range WR3 against Pittsburgh.
Colston Loveland | TE | Bears
Loveland's season-long outlook remains bullish, but he could face playing-time challenges battling Cole Kmet early in the year. Unlike Travis Hunter, who has similar questions, Loveland doesn't get a game so juicy that we can talk ourselves into just letting it ride.
The Bears have a bottom-eight team total as 1.5-point underdogs against the Vikings. Even if Loveland sees a larger-than-expected role, the pecking order of this offense is up in the air. That is enough for me to hold off for a week if I can help it.
Loveland was drafted as the consensus TE12 in fantasy, but looks more like a mid-range TE2 for Week 1. I prefer Dallas Goedert, who went much later in drafts.
Rapid Fire Downgrades & Pending News:
- Javonte Williams | RB | Cowboys: 19.5-point team total as 8.5-point underdogs against a strong defensive front for the Eagles. All signs point toward Williams as the starter in Week 1, but do we really want to test that theory out if we don't have to against Philadelphia? There is a chance Williams is rotating on early downs and gives up two-minute work to Jaydon Blue—which could honestly be a big part of the Cowboys' game plan if they fall behind early. Williams is startable if you are in a pinch, but don't treat him as anything more than a mid-range to low-end RB3.
- Nick Chubb | RB | Texans: 20.25-point team total as three-point dogs against the Chargers behind an unproven offensive line. Chubb is in a very similar situation to Williams. We *think* he is the RB1 for the Texans, but that could mean a variety of things. It could mean an early-down rotation with Dameon Pierce, with a passing-down back like Woody Marks or Dare Ogunbowale snatching up pass-down work. Behind one of the worst offensive lines that still has much to prove, Chubb is someone I would rather not have in my lineup in Week 1. He is a low-end RB3.
Sicko Starts of the Week for Week 1
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers who are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Let's go, you sickos.
Daniel Jones | QB | Colts
Daniel Jones is only rostered in 5% of Yahoo leagues and is in a starting lineup only 1% of the time.
Okay, this one may seem really sick on the surface, but in reality, Jones is in a pretty nice situation this weekend. In fact, I would start him over Justin Fields!
First, the game environment looks better. The Colts carry a 24.5-point team total (seventh-highest) in what could be a competitive game as small favorites (-1.5) over the Dolphins.
Second, Jones might not be an elite rusher like Fields, but he is in the next tier. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 36.7 rushing yards per game—the sixth-most of any active QB heading into Week 1 of 2025.
Third, Jones has averaged 205 passing yards per game when playing at least 80% of the snaps over the last three seasons. That is 25 more per game than Fields. This is the best supporting cast Jones has ever played with, and Steichen's heavy RPO and play-action utilization are cheat codes for the position.
Projections:
- Floor: 9.0 (19th)
- Median: 16.5 (15th)
- Xfinity Best: 29.3 (9th)
That ceiling might feel like our model is broken, but it's not! Jones can spike in two categories. Here are his top-five games over the last three years: 36.2, 30.7, 28.9, 27.8, 24.6. He has cleared 22 points in 23% of contests.
This could be a major they-are-all-laughing-at-you moment after Week 1 is in the books, but I have Jones as my QB18—ahead of names like Fields, Tua Tagovailoa and C.J. Stroud.
Jerome Ford | RB | Browns
Ford is rostered in 49% of Yahoo leagues and is in a starting lineup 4% of the time.
Look, Ford is in a very similar bucket to Williams and Chubb, who I have listed as downgrades I would rather avoid in Week 1. However, he is rostered significantly less than those two, respectively (76% and 66%).
Recent news has Dylan Sampson (who I still prefer over the course of the season) slated for a change-of-pace role in Week 1, with Ford as the primary back. It won't be easy considering the Browns' 21-point team total and the fact that they are 5.5-point underdogs.
But if you are in a major pickle at the position, he might be on your wire and could slide into a flex spot.
Ford is a mid-range to low-end RB3.
Rashod Bateman | WR | Ravens
Bateman is rostered in 46% of Yahoo leagues and is in the starting lineup less than 4%.
The newly minted Ravens WR is someone I have avoided in offseason drafts, like many of you, due to his inability to prove himself as a target earner. Still, the thesis on a player like Bateman is starting him in potential shootout affairs.
The Ravens are 1.5-point dogs and carry a 24.5-point team total against the Bills. I could see Bateman paying off with a TD in this one.
Ian is never going to let me live this one down, so hopefully it hits!
Don't get it twisted, I still have Bateman as a borderline WR4 in the ranks this weekend, but I am telling you there's a chance.
Hunter Henry | TE | Patriots
Henry is rostered in 59% of Yahoo leagues, but only in a starting lineup 8% of the time.
Here is my thinking on this one: the Patriots' passing corps might not be fully up to speed out of the gate, leaving Henry as a primary target.
- Stefon Diggs is 31 and coming off a late October ACL tear.
- Rookie Kyle Williams hasn't earned a starting role yet.
- DeMario Douglas is a solid slot option, but he can't carry all the volume.
- TreVeyon Henderson will be active in the passing attack, but they could start him slower than we expect.
The Patriots carry a respectable team total of 23.25 points as three-point favorites against the Raiders, and Henry is probably their best red zone option. He led the team in endzone targets (24%) last season.
Henry is a mid-range TE2 with TE1 spike upside if he snares a TD.
Brass Balls Bench
If you are willing to make big calls, these players could find their way to your bench if you are loaded with other options.
Dak Prescott | QB | Cowboys
Prescott was drafted as the QB10, and the Cowboys are one of my favorites to lead the league in pass attempts in 2025. But the Eagles are loaded on defense and held opposing QBs three points below their season average in 2024. In other words, they were the hardest defense in the NFL to score fantasy points on after adjusting for their competition.
Oddsmakers know this, which is part of the reason the Cowboys are 8.5-point dogs with the fourth-lowest team total (19.5) on the slate. Dak is going to get his attempts, but just how much scoring can we expect?
Prescott is my QB16 this weekend, behind names like Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Maye, Caleb Williams, and Love. For what it's worth, Freedman has him even lower than me at QB22. Freedman might be a wet blanket, but he is also a very smart man, y'all!
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