Week 1 WR/CB Matchups To Target And Avoid: Josh Downs Could Be The Sneaky WR You Need
Chris Allen highlights WR matchups to target, and ones to avoid in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.
I finally got out to see Sphere in Vegas last year.
If you haven’t been, go. The commercials or videos you might’ve seen showing people in the venue give you some idea. But they miss a critical interaction. The wraparound screen has both size and resolution. Independent of what you’re there to see, your eyes can’t focus on a single thing at first. They’re bouncing around from detail to detail, unable to rest as you try to comprehend what you’re viewing.
Week 1 has the same effect. We haven’t seen real football in over six months. It’s time. But our eyes aren’t used to following the action. Or even keying in on what might affect our roster decisions. To help, I’ve researched some WR-CB matchups that could alter our approach and help us in getting off to a fast start in our leagues.
WR-CB Matchups To Target For Fantasy Football in Week 1
Tee Higgins at Browns
Let me check something real quick.
- Tee Higgins: 6’4”
- Greg Newsome (projected right CB): 6’0”
- Denzel Ward (projected left CB): 5’11”
One second, please. I need to look at something else, too.
- Newsome (Yards per Reception Allowed in Man Coverage): 16.9, 14th-most (out of 97 qualifiers – min. 300 pass coverage snaps)
- Ward: 15.0, 32nd
Some still view Higgins as a WR2, but his usage makes him more of a 1B than most would like to admit. Across the 11 games that both Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase started and ended, Higgins was behind the Triple Crown winner by just one target per game. Their air yard shares aligned (33.2% to 34.8%). Higgins even one-upped Chase once they got into the red zone. In their Week 16 divisional rematch, it was the former Tiger who led the Bengals in targets. With a similar matchup on deck to kick off the season, if you’ve got Higgins, he should be locked into a starting spot on your roster.
Stefon Diggs vs. Raiders
Now, I could approach Stefon Diggs facing off against the Raiders in one of two ways.
First, I could accept that Diggs will play on the outside. He’ll potentially see new LV CB Eric Stokes, who came over from Green Bay in free agency. Coincidentally, last year, the Packers gave up the seventh-highest completion percentage on perimeter throws.
Or, we could hope OC Josh McDaniels moves Diggs into the slot, where he played 52.8% of his snaps from in ’24 with the Texans. There, he’d face off against Jeremy Chinn or Darnay Holmes. Chinn surrendered a 140.3 passer rating when targeted. Holmes allowed the 14th-most yards to interior receivers on a per-snap basis. Either sets up well for the veteran WR to come out and produce in Week 1 with his new QB.
Sneaky WR Matchups To Target
Josh Downs vs. Dolphins
The Colts-Dolphins game sets up as a sneaky matchup overall, as nobody knows how to feel about either team. Indianapolis is trotting out Daniel Jones. Every week, another story about Tyreek Hill puts the fanbase on edge. But let me run this by you.
Josh Downs is the Colts' slot man. Actually, when looking at his usage rates from last year, he might be their man in general.
- Target Share (when both active): 25.3% (Downs), 23.2% (Pittman)
- Targets per Route Run: 28.9%, 22.0%
- Slot Rate: 77.1%, 26.8%
To be fair, Michael Pittman Jr. was dealing with a back injury. It might be skewing his on-field usage and effectiveness. Said another way, this bout might be beneficial to him, too. Anyway, let me introduce you to Jason Marshall Jr.
The Dolphins drafted Marshall in the fifth round to (apparently) be their slot corner. Note: Marshall played a total of 59 snaps covering the interior in college. Recently-acquired S Minkah Fitzpatrick hasn’t spent significant time there in almost two years. There’s already a strong chance Downs will earn enough volume to make his way into the top 24 at the position. With an easy matchup, he’ll be the sneaky FLEX play you’ll need for Week 1.
Olamide Zaccheaus vs. Vikings (MNF)
Two things from this preseason clip.
First, both DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are on the field. And so is Cole Kmet. Essentially, the starting passing offense was there for Caleb Williams to target. Olamide Zaccheaus got the nod. In a must-have situation, the new guy had the QB’s eye.
Second, notice Zaccheaus’ pre-snap alignment. His role as the team’s slot receiver has been on the fantasy radar since training camp. And if there’s a spot you can target Minnesota’s defense, it’s their interior coverage.
- (Slot) Yards per Game Allowed: third-most
- Passing Success Rate Allowed: fifth-highest
- PPR PPG Allowed: third-most
Zaccheaus will be running routes in 11-personnel packages and has a rapport with Williams. He also has the most advantageous defensive battle of the trio. If you’re unsure of your starters or in a deep league, Zaccheaus is worth the shot.
WR Matchups to Avoid In Week 1 Fantasy Football
Calvin Ridley at Broncos
I understand why you drafted Calvin Ridley. His battle with the reigning DPOY wasn’t a part of our calculus when building our teams. For reference, here’s how WRs fared when facing Pat Surtain last season.
Ridley’s only shot at a decent outing is if he can move away from Surtain. And no, I’m not talking about switching sides of the field. Denver’s CB1 played 46.9% of his outside snaps from the left and the rest from the right. Ridley has to move to the inside, where the two-time All-Pro typically doesn’t travel. Tennessee’s OC has noted their intent to get Ridley on the move, but I’d test your bench depth before making that bet.
Jauan Jennings at SEA
Let’s start with the good news.
Jauan Jennings got back to practice, and he got paid!
However, it was Jennings' first time working with the team since July. His calf injury and subsequent hold-in during contract negotiations had him working off to the side throughout most of the training camp and the preseason. Simply put, he’s had little time to build on the connection he had with Brock Purdy that kept the 49ers’ season alive in ’24. Even worse, here’s who Jennings will have to square off against.
Seattle gave up the eighth-fewest passing yards per game to opposing interior receivers. While forcing a bottom-10 completion percentage on throws to slot receivers, Witherspoon helped boost the Seahawks’ coverage unit to a top-12 mark in interceptions. With as much time away as Jennings took, let’s give him a week to get back in sync with a better matchup against the Saints in Week 2.
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