Week 3 QB Rankings: Jake Browning and More of Freedman's Favorites

It's Week 3 of the NFL regular season. We're in the grind now.

Dudes are getting injured. Players are booming one week and then busting the next. Some mediocre NFL teams are 2-0, and a great one is 0-2.

In the words of Life of Agony—maybe my second-favorite Brooklyn-based '90s metal band—"the river runs red."

Whether you're a warrior or a fisherman, it's time to wade in the water.

Here's the Week 3 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites.

For details on my process and schedule as it pertains to these favorites and my fantasy football rankings and NFL player projections, see the end of the piece. You can also find the rest of my positional favorites below:

Week 3 Quarterback Rankings

Rank	QB	Team	Opponent
1	Josh Allen	BUF	MIA
2	Lamar Jackson	BAL	DET
3	Jalen Hurts	PHI	LAR
4	Patrick Mahomes	KC	NYG
5	Dak Prescott	DAL	CHI
6	Jayden Daniels (Q)	WAS	LV
7	Baker Mayfield	TB	NJY
8	Kyler Murray	ARI	SF
9	Drake Maye	NE	PIT
10	Caleb Williams	CHI	DAL
11	Daniel Jones	IND	TEN
12	Jordan Love	GB	CLE

Patrick Mahomes Upgrades In Week 3 QB Rankings

Going back to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs have lost three straight games, and they're 0-2 for the first time with QB Patrick Mahomes.

And now they're going on the road to face a resurgent Giants team that just scored 37 points.

On top of that, Mahomes will once again be without No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (suspension) and perhaps No. 2 WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder), and the impact of their absence was seen in Weeks 1-2, when Mahomes had a career-low 6.5 AY/A.

But this feels like a bounceback spot for Mahomes, who has always outperformed expectations on the road (per Action Network).

Mahomes on Road: 32-24-3 ATS | +2.23 Margin | 10.7% ROI
Mahomes at Home: 32-36-1 ATS | +0.60 Margin | -8.4% ROI

And I'm not worried about the team's 0-2 start. There's no shame in losing to a tough divisional opponent in another country and then losing a close game to the Super Bowl champ.

Plus, 0-2 teams are generally not as bad as their record. Or at least they're usually not as bad as the market thinks. Since 2003, they're 92-71-5 ATS (9.3% ROI).

As for the matchup, the Giants are coming off a brutal overtime loss, and last year the Giants were No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (24.2%, per FTN).

This is an opponent Mahomes should be able to exploit, and I love that he has tapped more into his running ability to open the season. Through two weeks, he has 13-123-2 rushing and ranks No. 2 among starting QBs with a 15% scramble rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

In each of the past two weeks, Mahomes has been the No. 6 QB in fantasy finishes (26, 23.1 points, per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix).

The Chiefs might be struggling, but we can't say the same about Mahomes.

Jake Browning Is A Viable QB Streamer In Week 3

QB Joe Burrow (toe) is out for the next few months, which means Jake Browning once again is the Bengals starter.

He was far from perfect in Week 2 as an in-game injury fill-in (three INTs), but he still threw for 241 yards and two TDs and added a one-yard rushing TD in 2.5 quarters of football and led the Bengals to a 31-27 comeback win.

He's not Burrow, but the dropoff from Burrow to Browning isn't catastrophic.

In his seven 2023 starts in relief of Burrow, Browning had 1,868 yards and 11 TDs passing (with seven INTs), and he added 22-88-3 rushing. That's 266.9 passing yards per game with a 7.8 AY/A—plus the extra rushing production.

That's livable.

And the Vikings are injured. Last week they were without FS Harrison Smith (illness) and CB Jeff Okudah (concussion) in their secondary, and they also lost EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (concussion) during the game. All three are questionable for Week 3, and without them the Vikings defense is markedly diminished.

In superflex and deep leagues, Browning is a viable QB2.

The Dropback

Drake Maye (Patriots) vs. Steelers: Maye was nearly perfect last week as a passer (230 yards, two TDs with an 82.% completion rate, 11.7 AY/A), and he also hit the mark as a runner (31 yards, one TD). The Steelers allowed offenses led by Justin Fields and Sam Darnold to put up 30+ points in Weeks 1-2, and this week they might be without EDGE Alex Highsmith (ankle), DT Derrick Harmon (knee), DT Isaiah Loudermilk (ankle), CB Joey Porter (hamstring), and SS DeShon Elliott (knee).

Caleb Williams (Bears) vs. Cowboys: Williams wasn't great in Weeks 1-2 (6.7 AY/A), but he has buoyed his production with 11-85-1 rushing, and he's at home against the Cowboys, who could be without CB DaRon Bland (foot) and last year were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.8). And last week, under new DC Matt Eberflus, they allowed a previously moribund Russell Wilson to pass for 450 yards and three TDs.

Mac Jones (49ers) vs. Cardinals: In Week 2, Jones did a reasonable impersonation of starter Brock Purdy (shoulder, toe) with 279 yards and three TDs passing (66.7% completion rate, 8.7 AY/A). The Cardinals last year were No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.7%, per RBs Don't Matter), and last week they lost starting CBs Will Johnson (groin), Max Melton (knee), and Garrett Williams (knee). This game has a total of just 43.5, but the over is a five-star bet (per our Fantasy Life Game Model). If available, Jones is a streamable waiver add.

Tyrod Taylor (Jets) at Buccaneers: The Bucs have a one-day rest deficit off Monday Night Football, and last year they were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.3). The Jets are 7-point dogs, but Taylor is 34-21-4 ATS (18.% ROI) for his career and 22-12-3 ATS (22.7% ROI) when getting points. We shouldn't be 100% sure he's a downgrade from starter Justin Fields (concussion).

Abbreviations and Process Notes

In this piece, I highlight some QBs I expect to perform better than they usually do.

What causes me to upgrade a guy?

Usually some combination of these components.

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchup (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectation (again, maybe aided by injury)

Some notes.

Defensive matchups: For one more week, I'll rely on last year's defensive data more than this year's.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have rather incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will be reflected in my weekly rankings and my weekly projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.

Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
Sun AM: Revise rankings
Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better. We'll see what 2025 brings.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 3 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).

Running Backs
Wide Receivers (to be released)
Tight Ends (to be released)

Abbreviations:

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)

Players Mentioned in this Article

PatrickMahomes
QBKC
PPG
23.50
JakeBrowning
QBCIN
PPG
14.05