Week 3 RB Rankings: Upgrade Javonte Williams For His Matchup Against The Bears
Matthew Freedman breaks down his favorite running backs from his Week 3 running back rankings for fantasy football.
It's Week 3 of the NFL regular season. We're in the grind now.
Dudes are getting injured. Players are booming one week and then busting the next. Some mediocre NFL teams are 2-0, and a great one is 0-2.
In the words of Life of Agony—maybe my second-favorite Brooklyn-based '90s metal band—"the river runs red."
Whether you're a warrior or a fisherman, it's time to wade in the water.
You can find each of my weekly positional breakdowns here:
Here's the Week 3 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites.
Running Back Rankings For Week 3
See below for my top 12 running backs for Week 3. You can find my full Week 3 fantasy football rankings in Rankings HQ.
Javonte Williams Rises Up The RB Rankings
As a Cowboys fan and an NFL analyst, I was strongly skeptical of Williams entering the season.
But in Weeks 1-2, he piled up 194 yards and three TDs on 33 carries, 10 targets, and an 89 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
He's literally running away with the Cowboys backfield.
Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and James Cook: They're the only RBs with top-five fantasy finishes in each of the past two weeks (per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix). One of these names clearly doesn't belong in this group … and yet I can't deny that—right now—Williams is a top-tier producer.
And I don't see why he should be anything less than that this week against the Bears, who last year were No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (3.2%, per FTN) and this week will likely be without LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring).
Last week, the Bears allowed 52 points to the Lions, and in Week 1 they yielded 27 points to a struggling Vikings offense "led" by QB J.J. McCarthy in his first NFL start.
What's to keep the Cowboys from getting 35+ points this week?
Upgrade Jacory Crosky-Merritt For Week 3
No. 1 RB (and stud Fantasy Life investor) Austin Ekeler (Achilles, IR) is out for the year. Between-the-tackles grinder Chris Rodriguez was a healthy scratch in Weeks 1-2. And journeyman special teamer Jeremy McNichols had zero opportunities last week.
He has an uncertain role in the backfield—and Rodriguez and McNichols are waiver candidates—but Jacory Croskey-Merritt (aka "Bill") will almost certainly get the first shot to lead the backfield, and if he performs well, he could earn a true workhorse role.
And I love his setup this week.
- He's at home.
- He has three extra days of rest after Thursday Night Football.
- The Raiders have one less day of rest after Monday Night Football.
To some bettors, this specific spot is called "The Widowmaker"—because the home teams tend to kill (per Action Network).
- Against the Spread: 11-5 | +5.06 Margin | 34.1% ROI
- Moneyline: 12-4 | +11.8 Margin | 5.7% ROI
QB Jayden Daniels (knee) is uncertain for this game, but the Commanders are still -3.5 favorites, and backup QB Marcus Mariota looked great last year for the Commanders in relief (10.1 AY/A).
This game has a total of just 44.5, but the over is a five-star bet (per our Fantasy Life Game Model). With or without Daniels, I expect the Commanders to put up points.
Tyler Allgeier Upgrades To A Sneaky Week 3 Flex Play
Fantasy players tend to think of Tyler Allgeier as only a handcuff to No. 1 RB Bijan Robinson—and it's true that he's a great injury fill-in—but he also has standalone flex value.
As the No. 2 RB to Robinson, Allgeier had 1,608 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage in the 2023-24 campaigns, and then in Weeks 1-2 he had 104 yards and a TD on 26 carries and a target.
I especially want to call attention to his Week 2 usage: 16 carries and a target in a 22-6 road win over the Vikings.
The Panthers are on the road this week for a second straight game—but they're still five-point favorites, so Allgeier once again could see 12+ opportunities, and with his matchup, Allgeier could go off with that usage.
Last year, the Panthers had the league's worst run defense (per RBs Don't Matter).
- Rush EPA: 0.097 (No. 32)
- Rush SR: 50.9% (No. 32)
- Rush DVOA: 14.1% (No. 32)
Easily, they were No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+8.6). And given that they retained DC Ejiro Evero, they're not much better this year—and they could be without DT Tershawn Wharton (hamstring).
Even if Robinson gets 20+ touches and goes off, Allgeier could still be startable in most situations (including Guillotine Leagues™).
The Checkdown
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs. Titans: Through two weeks, Taylor is the No. 1 RB in snaps played (113), and he has leveraged that usage into an NFL-high 313 scrimmage yards. Last year, he had 29-218-3 rushing in two games against the Titans, who could be without DT T'Vondre Sweat (ankle).
Jordan Mason (Vikings) vs. Bengals: The OL situation is bad for the Vikings, who could be without LT Christian Darrisaw (knee), C Ryan Kelly (concussion), and swing OT Justin Skule … but the offense might actually improve with backup QB Carson Wentz. And No. 2 RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) is unlikely to play, so Mason could approach 20+ opportunities as a three-point home favorite. The Bengals last year were No. 31 in defensive rush SR (45.2%).
Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs. Saints: Charbonnet disappointed in Week 2 with just 10 yards on 15 carries … but for the second straight game he played ahead of teammate Kenneth Walker. He could break out as a 7.5-point home favorite against the Saints, who last year were No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (3.2%).
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Steelers: You might not like it, but Stevenson played well ahead of rookie TreVeyon Henderson in Weeks 1-2, and last game he balled out with 142 yards on 11 carries and five targets. The Steelers have allowed 30+ points and 100-yard rushers (Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker) in consecutive games, and they could have DL woes without EDGE Alex Highsmith (ankle), DT Derrick Harmon (knee) and DT Isaiah Loudermilk (ankle).
Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) at Giants: Pacheco has failed to hit even 30 scrimmage yards in a game this year, but why not this week? Last year the Giants were No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.7), and the Giants could be without DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (foot) and LBs Micah McFadden (leg, IR), Darius Muasau (concussion), Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (calf), and Chris Board (chest). And, yes, I swear those are all real names.
Abbreviations And Process Notes
In this piece I highlight some RBs I expect to perform better than they usually do.
What causes me to upgrade a guy?
Usually some combination of these components.
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchup (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectation (again, maybe aided by injury)
Some notes.
Defensive matchups: For one more week, I'll rely on last year's defensive data more than this year's.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have rather incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will be reflected in my weekly rankings and my weekly projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Access: To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better. We'll see what 2025 brings.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 3 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
- Quarterbacks
- Wide Receivers (to be released)
- Tight Ends (to be released)
Abbreviations:
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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