2024 NFL Draft Winners - Veteran RB Edition
The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone, leaving all of us fantasy football nerds with four long months to adjust the ranks and identify this year's winning strategy. Nothing else matters in this world. NOTHING. YOU HEAR ME: NOTHING.
Okay, anyway: There will inevitably be some trades and free-agent signings over the next few months that throw a wrench into seemingly clear-cut depth charts, but that doesn't mean there aren't already some big-time veteran winners based on their team's lack of moves last weekend.
Today's goal: Identify the biggest veteran RB winners from the draft and essentially the off-season as a whole; these guys suddenly seem to have a clear pathway to fantasy relevance, and in many cases, their upside scenario doesn't appear to be fully baked into their present ADP.
I tried to keep the list to more under-the-radar options (sorry Jonathan Taylor) in an effort not to go overboard hyping up consensus top picks who everyone already loves. Cool? Cool.
As always: It's a a great day to be great.
Chargers RBs
Look, I realize the allure of sixth-round rookie RB Kimani Vidal. He's fast (4.46 40-yard dash) with theoretical three-down size (5'8". 213 pounds) and even managed to post a 92-700-1 receiving line in four years at Troy.
But c'mon people. The man fell to Round 6 (pick 181) for a reason. The Chargers made six selections before addressing their backfield.
Kudos to Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz for saying nice things about the guy he drafted (that never happens!), but let's face it people: Day three RBs seldom provide booms in fantasy land, both as rookies and throughout the rest of their career.
I'm not saying you can't use a mid-round rookie pick or late-round re-draft dart on Vidal; just realize the minimal resources devoted to this backfield in the draft really bodes well for both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins ahead of 2024.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh is fully expected to run the piss out of the football, meaning both former Ravens RBs *should* be flirting with double-digit touch workloads from Week 1 of this season. It's fair to be more enthused with Edwards than Dobbins considering the history of RBs coming off an Achilles tear, but then again the latter back claims to be back to full health and seemingly has a chance to earn the starting job.
Ultimately, we have a fairly clear-cut top-three inside of a backfield that figures to contend with being one of the league's most run-heavy offenses … and each of them is currently priced outside of the top-36 options at the position.
This is the exact sort of backfield that zero/hero-RB enthusiasts should be attacking and is reminiscent of the discount afforded to all Dolphins RBs last season – don't be afraid to throw late-round darts at all three parties involved.
Cowboys RBs
Maybe Jerry Jones' "All in" offseason approach nets the team another RB in the future via trade, but for now the starting job seems to be between Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman.
While Zeke didn’t seem COMPLETELY washed last season (Fun fact: Elliott posted a faster top speed than Tony Pollard!), the former No. 4 overall pick has certainly been on a downward trend as of late:
- 2018: +0.45 rushing yards over expected per carry (No. 17 among qualified RBs)
- 2019: +0.4 (No. 12)
- 2020: +0.03 (No. 32)
- 2021: -0.19 (No. 31)
- 2022: -0.34 (No. 43)
- 2023: -0.39 (No. 43)
Don’t expect a workhorse role for the soon-to-be 29-year-old veteran, but Elliott does profile as the most likely goal-line option inside the NFL’s reigning No. 1 ranked scoring offense. There’s potential for TD-dependent RB3 usage here, particularly if the Cowboys refrain from making any relevant trades at the position between now and Week 1.
Dowdle is the other late-round dart worth throwing here. The former undrafted free agent has just 113 career touches to his name, but flashed in 2023 – particularly in the passing game, where he posted top-10 marks at the position in yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (1.35).
It's unlikely Rico ever seizes full control of the backfield; just realize double-digit combined carries and targets per game inside a likely top-10 scoring offense could go a long way in fantasy land.
Zamir White, RB - Raiders
On the one hand, the Raiders did add some level of outside competition to replace Josh Jacobs in the form of Alexander Mattison and sixth-round RB Dylan Laube.
On the other hand, Mattison averaged under four yards per carry last season and led the NFL with 180 scoreless rushing attempts. Laube demonstrated some fantasy-friendly receiving ability in college … but it was at the University of New Hampshire.
This leaves Zamir White as the projected bell-cow option inside of a Raiders offense that made a habit of feeding him the rock down the stretch of last season. The artist known as "Zeus" posted the following production In four games without Jacobs:
- Week 15: 17-69-1 rushing, 3-16-0 receiving, 70% snaps, PPR RB12
- Week 16: 22-145-0 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, 76% snaps, RB17
- Week 17: 20-71-0 rushing, 5-35-0 receiving, 57% snaps, RB16
- Week 18: 25-112-0 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving, 73% snaps, RB21
Jan 7, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White (35) is pushed out of bounds by Denver Broncos linebacker Drew Sanders (41) during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
The receiving production and snap rates reflect the reality that Ameer Abdullah or someone else will likely maintain involvement in pass-first situations, but it's hard to complain too much about someone capable of flirting with 20-plus touches on a weekly basis.
White also deserves credit for largely making the most out of his opportunities on the ground: His average of +0.33 rushing yards over expected per carry ranked 14th among qualified RBs in 2023 – one spot behind Saquon Barkley and one spot ahead of Jonathan Taylor.
Nobody is confusing White with Christian McCaffrey or Breece Hall, but his potential eighth-round ADP makes him akin to a poor man's version of Derrick Henry or Kenneth Walker in fantasy land thanks to the potential for that sweet, sweet volume.
Joe Mixon, RB - Texans
Joe Mixon looks like the locked-and-loaded workhorse RB1 inside of a high-scoring offense with the only competition being incumbent backups.
While Mixon’s three-year, $27 million extension doesn’t initially seem as gaudy on paper as Josh Jacobs’ four-year, $48 million deal with the Packers, the $13 million in guaranteed money to the former back is actually more than what the latter ($12.5 million) is getting.
Look, I got sucked into the Dameon Pierce hype last preseason too – it happens – but the man played *six* total postseason snaps as the team’s RB3 behind Devin Singletary and even Dare Ogunbowale.
Right now, Mixon’s RB15 (pick 57) Underdog ADP is lagging mightily behind fellow projected workhorse RBs coming off objectively bad seasons in terms of rushing efficiency BUT exists in solid offenses like Saquon Barkley (RB5, 14.8), Jacobs (RB9, 30) and Rachaad White (RB13, 50.0).
I’m not necessarily against those RBs, but it feels like Mixon’s well-known meh efficiency numbers are being held against him more than others.
Opportunity rules all at RB, and Mixon is projected to carry one of the NFL’s largest workloads. He's a bargain anchor-RB option in the Rounds 4-5 range thanks to possessing the workload of a player normally going inside the top 24 picks of any given fantasy draft.
Devin Singletary, RB - Giants
No RB played 90% of their offense's snaps in more games than Saquon Barkley last season. Of course, Barkley took his talents to Philadelphia last season, leaving the New York Football Giants with the following backfield depth chart:
- Former Bills and Texans RB Devin Singletary
- 2023 fifth-round RB Eric Gray (23 career touches)
- 24-year-old fifth-round pick Tyrone Tracy Jr. (was a full-time WR until 2023)
- 2021 sixth-round RB Gary Brightwell (52 career touches)
- Former undrafted free agent Jashaun Corbin (4 career touches)
- Former undrafted free agent Deon Jackson (130 career touches)
- Former undrafted free agent Dante Miller (0 career touches)
Yes, Tracy has some fun highlights and offers a fun explosive pass-catching profile. Also yes, 165 other players were drafted before him for a reason.
Ultimately, Singletary projects as arguably fantasy's cheapest three-down back. The obvious cons of investing in the Giants' likely piss-poor offense are more than baked into his RB35 (pick 117.2) ADP. We're talking about a projected lead RB with the upside for 250-plus carries and targets going after the top-56 WRs, top-14 QBs and top-12 TEs in fantasy land at the moment.
The overall PPR RB9 during the final nine weeks of the 2023 regular season, Singletary might be entering a far worse overall offensive environment, but his potential to (again) get by with elite volume seems to be fully on the table inside an offense with *checks notes again* zero proven competition at the position.
Bengals RBs
The fit in Cincy couldn't be better for Zack Moss.
He excelled in the Colts' 11-personnel, shotgun-heavy offense last season … and now finds himself in another offense that loves to attack its opponents on the ground from the same look.
Santana and Sinorice's cousin certainly proved capable of handling a featured role on the ground during the first part of the 2023 season with Jonathan Taylor (back) sidelined:
- Week 2: 18-88-1 rushing, 4-19-0 receiving
- Week 3: 30-122-0, 2-23-1
- Week 4: 18-70-0, 0-0-0
- Week 5: 23-165-2, 2-30-0
Moss played well enough to actively eat into JT’s workload upon return, ultimately finishing the year as one of the league’s top-five most-efficient RBs in rushing yards over expected per carry (Next-Gen Stats):
- De'Von Achane (+2.87)
- Christian McCaffrey (+1.32)
- Jaylen Warren (+1.11)
- James Conner (+1.02)
- Zack Moss (+0.71)
It’s not a given that Moss immediately rises up to the top of the Bengals’ depth chart, but the reality that Chase Brown never eclipsed even a 30% snap rate on offense last season bodes well for his chances of at least handling early-down and short-yardage duties.
That’s not a bad gig inside an offense that ranked seventh in scoring in both 2021 and 2022 with a fully healthy version of Joe Burrow under center.
This move should also probably be viewed as a positive for Brown, who can absolutely fly. The 2023 fifth-round pick isn’t small enough (5’10”, 209 pounds) to necessarily be pigeon-holed for just pass-down work, but either way: Kudos to Brown for making the absolute most out of his opportunities through the air as a rookie:
Among 67 RBs with 15-plus targets:
- PFF receiving grade: 81.1 (No. 4)
- Yards per route run: 4.46 (No. 1)
- Targets per route run: 42.9% (No. 1)
- Passer rating when targeted: 132.2 (No. 2)
- Yards per reception: 11.1 (No. 1)
Both backs are currently priced outside of Fantasy's top-100 picks despite the reality that each figures to be capable of providing the sort of "FLEX with benefits" value that zero-RB truthers should be targeting at this point in drafts.
Don't be surprised if both wind up providing value at this cost – we could be looking at a Gen-Z version of the mid-2010s Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard dynamic here.
Isiah Pacheco, RB - Chiefs
I almost left Pacheco out because his presence seems too obvious, but then again his current RB14 (pick 51.3) ADP leaves him as a mid-fifth-round pick at the moment.
His biggest backfield competition at the moment? Clyde Edwards-Helaire and La'Mical Perine. The only meaningful offseason addition was a f*cking rugby player in Louis Rees-Zammit, who isn't even guaranteed to stick to RB full-time (if he even makes the final roster).
This means Pacheco will probably assume the same role he did throughout 2023 … which led to him posting RB14 production in PPR points per game and RB11 numbers in expected PPR points per game.
Translation: Pacheco had one of the more fantasy-friendly RB roles in fantasy football last season, and there's little reason to expect that to change in 2024.
You know what could change? The scoring upside at hand.
Reminder: This Chiefs offense usually operates as one of the league’s single-most prolific units when they have a healthy No. 15 under center:
- 2018: 35.3 points per game (No. 1)
- 2019: 28.2 (No. 5)
- 2020: 29.6 (No. 6)
- 2021: 28.2 (No. 4)
- 2022: 29.2 (No. 1)
- 2023: 21.8 (No. 15)
Pacheco is one of the few RBs with the potential to see 300-plus touches in the modern NFL and just so happens to share the backfield with a guy who is on pace to be in the GOAT conversation.
I don't disagree with the sentiment that guys like Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor and Kyren Williams are better "pure" talents at the position, but do they really have enough of an advantage from an efficiency perspective to warrant going nearly three full rounds ahead of someone with a similar volume projection in a probably better overall offensive environment?
Bypassing some of the draft's top-three-round options at RB in favor of other positions before selecting an anchor like Pacheco or Mixon in Round 5 has been one of my favorite early-season Best Ball strategies.
The "RB Dead Zone" is typically reserved for inefficient backs in bad offenses who only get by on volume – and that's simply not the case with either option.
