Does Draft Capital Matter in Fantasy Football?

The NFL Draft brings hope, excitement, and best of all, fantasy-relevant happenings to the grand world of football. Everything seems possible on draft night … until it’s not.

Today’s goal: Spoil any good vibes you are feeling toward specific later-round prospects by explaining that the HEAVY majority of high-end fantasy performers are selected within the first three rounds of the draft.

So … yeah, here’s a chart that shows just that! The percentage of top fantasy performers by draft round over the past 10 years; this denotes where the top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB/WR performers in terms of PPR per game scoring were originally selected from 2014 to 2023.

While first-round prospects have generally been best (especially at QB), day-two players have managed to provide similar and sometimes even better fantasy production. We REALLY see a strong disparity when looking at the top 100 or so players vs. the best of the rest:

Percentage of top-performing players in Rounds 1-3 vs. Rounds 4+:

• QB: 80% in Rounds 1-3, 20% in Rounds 4+
• RB: 70%, 30%
• WR: 80%, 20%
• TE: 73%, 28%

That’s right: At least 70% of the top-performing fantasy players at every position originally heard their name called on day one or two of the draft.

And that’s overall! Things get even tighter near the top of the draft when we look specifically at top-performing rookies. Now, there aren’t that many year-one players who post elite fantasy numbers in the first place, but the ones who do were drafted inside of the top three rounds far more times than not.

• QB: Only four rookies have posted top-12 numbers at the position over the past 10 years, and three of them (Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray) were drafted in Round 1. Dak Prescott (Round 4) is the exception, and he only got that opportunity because of a preseason back injury to Tony Romo.
• RB: Just six rookie RBs have managed top-24 numbers without the benefit of day-one or day-two draft capital over the past 10 years: 2015 Karlos Williams (Round 5), 2016 Jordan Howard (Round 5), 2018 Phillip Lindsay (UDFA), 2020 James Robinson (UDFA), 2021 Elijah Mitchell (Round 6), and most recently 2022 Dameon Pierce (Round 4). There have been 30 such rookies total, meaning 80% of them were drafted inside the top three rounds.
• WR: There have been just 13 total rookie WRs to post top-24 fantasy numbers since 2014. Of those dozen, 2016 Tyreek Hill (Round 5) and 2023 Puka Nacua (Round 5) were the only guys not selected inside of the top three rounds.
• TE: A total of three first-year TEs have produced top-12 numbers over the past 10 years: 2017 Evan Engram (Round 1), 2021 Kyle Pitts (Round 1), and 2023 Sam LaPorta (Round 2).

Translation: Rookies don’t make a habit of putting up elite fantasy numbers in the first place, but the ones that do are almost exclusively early-round picks.

The Fantasy Life crew has been hard at work producing scouting reports on all the top prospects and also has some objectively dope Super Models for RBs, WRs, and TEs. We have a pretty good idea of the pros and cons of all the fantasy-relevant prospects; now it’s time to see who manages to earn the sort of high-end draft capital that typically goes hand-in-hand with early-career production.

Nov 25, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) runs against Texas A&M Aggies defensive back Jacoby Mathews (2) during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

That said, potential upside scenarios for day three or undrafted players should revolve around who manages to land in the most fantasy-friendly environments. This is in terms of both the supporting cast and (more importantly) available opportunity.

The following landing spots aren’t guaranteed to make stars out of future day-three selections, but at a minimum, they do seem to offer the most barren depth charts with a heightened opportunity to compete for a day-one starting job.

The 2024 NFL Draft is underway! Read about all of the 2024 NFL Draft winners and losers for fantasy football as the draft unfolds!

Quarterback

The following teams don’t immediately project to have a locked-in, no-doubt QB1 already on their roster ahead of 2024:

• Bears
• Commanders
• Patriots
• Vikings
• Seahawks
• Titans
• Giants
• Raiders
• Broncos

The first four teams are fully expected to be responsible for taking the top-four QBs off the board, while the Seahawks (Geno Smith, although I have suspicions), Titans (Will Levis), and Giants (Daniel Jones) are tentatively expected to enter 2024 with their incumbent starter under center, even if their leash might not be especially long these days.

That basically leaves us with the Raiders and Broncos as the only two teams seemingly ready and willing to crown a potential day-two signal-caller as their starter. Hell, there have been plenty of rumors on both potentially “reaching” for Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon QB Bo Nix in Round 1.

As much as it might be fun to root for likely day two and three selections like South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler and Tulane QB Michael Pratt: The heavy majority of NFL depth charts look to already be at least one injury away from dealing with life with a mid-to-late-round rookie signal-caller under center.

Running Back

Thirteen different backfields have at least 50% of their 2023 RB carries and/or targets up for grabs by way of their previous ball carriers either taking their talents elsewhere in free agency, or still being on the open market. It’s always possible for teams like the Bills, Rams, and Chiefs among others to look to upgrade the position regardless, but generally, it’s easier for incoming rookies to earn large day-one roles on depth charts without incumbent RBs to deal with it.

That said, the majority of these 13 squads have already ventured into the free-agent waters to replace said production. There are basically just four offenses remaining that really need to pick up an additional RB this weekend:

• Chargers (87% available carries, 91% available targets): Former Ravens RBs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins have been signed, although the former is a fairly one-dimensional early-down grinder, and the latter faces an uphill battle in returning from last year’s brutal Achilles injury.
• Cowboys (69% available carries, 70% available targets): It seems highly unlikely this squad enters Week 1 with Rico Dowdle, Royce Freeman, and Deuce Vaughn as their big three RBs. No backfield across the NFL looks more poised to be taken over by a day-two rookie RB than this one.
• Raiders (67% available carries, 57% available targets): While Zamir White could very well still be the frontrunner to lead this backfield in touches this time next week, Raiders general manager Tom Telesco is on the record stating they want to lean on multiple backs. It’d make a lot of sense if they add a pass-catching threat to complement White and ex-Vikings veteran Alexander Mattison.
• Patriots (52% available carries, 54% available targets): Rhamondre Stevenson posted career-worst efficiency numbers last season and regularly lost chunks of work to current free agent Ezekiel Elliott. Similar to the Raiders, it’s unlikely a newfound rookie will snatch away the starting job, but there is room here for a solid complement.

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) runs for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Washington Huskies in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps teams like the Giants (Devin Singletary) and Bengals (Zack Moss) also want to add additional firepower beyond their free-agent acquisitions; even then I’d feel far more confident about the potential for our favorite incoming rookies to earn larger day-one roles on those other aforementioned big-four depth charts.

Wide Receiver

Just like RB, nothing is stopping all 32 teams from simply looking to upgrade from the existing talent on their roster. That said, it’s easier for incoming rookies to earn early starting jobs on depth charts that don’t have three incumbent starters already ahead of them.

The following teams have lost at least 40% of both their 2023 WR targets and air yards via trade or free agency:

• Bills (86% available targets, 90% available air yards)
• Chargers (61%, 61%)
• Cardinals (58%, 54%)
• Steelers (50%, 45%)
• Falcons (43%, 49%)
• Jaguars (40%, 45%)

The Chiefs are another team that could use some WR help should rising second-year talent Rashee Rice miss extended time due to an expected multi-game suspension.

The top three teams are (understandably) projected to add a first-round WR in Matthew Freedman’s latest mock draft, while the latter three do indeed have a quasi-WR1 option already on the roster (George Pickens, Drake London, Christian Kirk), even if it would be a bit cooler if their complementary options were a bit better.

Tight End

There is less overall opportunity here than in the other positions, although keep in mind consensus No. 1 TE Brock Bowers is arguably more akin to a slot WR.

That said: The following offenses have lost at least 30% of their 2023 TE targets and air yards to free agency or trades:

• Chargers (55% available targets, 35% available air yards)
• Seahawks (54%, 47%)
• Patriots (48%, 46%)
• Falcons (48%, 33%)
• Raiders (44%, 36%)
• Bengals (32%, 32%)
• Panthers (32%, 31%)

And yet, several of these teams have already added likely committee contributors to the roster in free agency (Chargers, Patriots, Bengals), while others can be expected to thrust their incumbent part-time starter into a heavier role (Seahawks, Falcons, Raiders).

Also, note the Giants could be in play for a TE if Darren Waller winds up retiring.

Here’s to hoping 2024 produces more Cinderella stories involving little-known late-round picks emerging as fantasy studs … even if we absolutely should NOT be betting on that phenomenon to occur based on past history. Cool? Cool—now go enjoy the draft!