2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Betting Odds

When it comes to NFL betting, the world is your oyster. Every Sunday brings a new opportunity to dive into a full slate of games, but why wait until then?

The NFL futures market is already in full swing, and there are plenty of options to consider. There are team-based markets like win total over/unders, playoff odds, and Super Bowl odds, but there are also player-based markets.

This piece will focus on everything you need to know about betting on who will win the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award: who are the favorites, where is the value, and what can we learn from history? Let’s dive in.

Defensive Player of the Year Betting Odds

*Odds updated 1/6/24, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

As you can see, the list of current favorites to win DPOY is dominated by edge rushers, which speaks to the importance of the position. That means that sacks will be a key stat in deciding who wins DPOY after each season.

Past 10 DPOY Winners

Players at a number of different positions on defense have won DPOY over the last decade, but nine of the last 10 winners have been in the front seven, which is a trend that's likely to continue given the focus sacks and pressuring opposing QBs.

DPOY Trends

As you can see from the previous winners, this award is dominated by two things: pass rushers and favorites. Five of the past 10 DPOY winners of this award have been either Aaron Donald of the Rams or J.J. Watt of the Texans, both of whom will go down as two of the greatest defensive players in history.

If we extend it a year further, Donald and Watt have six combined DPOY wins in the last 11 years. Only three of the past nine winners have started the year at longer than +800, and two of them just barely missed the cut at +1400. Stephon Gilmore was the only real longshot DPOY winner in recent history, as he had opened the season at 80-1 odds.

Overall, the NFL DPOY award has been taken home by a premier defensive player with elite pedigree. Each of the past 10 winners has been a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, with most having been selected in the top half of Round 1.

T.J. Watt is the only member of the group who was selected later than pick No. 13 overall. Watt's brother, Gilmore, Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Luke Kuechly were all top-10 overall picks in the NFL Draft their respective years. Apparently, NFL general managers are much better at identifying franchise defensive players than they have been at identifying franchise QBs.

The vast majority of DPOY winners have made their money by getting after opposing QBs. The DPOY doesn't necessarily need to lead the league in sacks, as oftentimes, the league leader in sacks has not won DPOY, but getting after opposing QBs has generally been a prerequisite.

New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore (24) intercepts a pass intended for Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd (83) during the third quarter of an NFL Week 15 game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. The New England Patriots won 34-13. New England Patriots At Cincinnati Bengals Football 12 15 2019 Photo Credit: Kareem Elgazzar, Cincinnati Enquirer via Imagn Content Services, LLC

When Gilmore won the award with the Patriots in 2019, he led the league with six interceptions and 20 pass breakups. He also took two of his picks to the house for TDs. That’s a hard formula to replicate since most top corners don’t see all that many opportunities to make plays. Gilmore also played for the No. 1 defense that year in terms of points allowed per game, which helped his credentials.

You could argue that the year when Kuechly won DPOY wasn’t even his best season. He had more tackles and tackles for loss in his previous season, but he did finish with a career-high four interceptions. The Panthers were also second that year in terms of points allowed per game.

Ultimately, the formula for winning DPOY as a non-pass rusher is to play for one of the best defenses of the year and to have an outlier statistical season. That can be something like interceptions for a linebacker or TDs for a cornerback. That’s a brutal combination to try to predict, so you’re better off just sticking with the pass rushers.

DPOY Leader - Micah Parsons (-105)

*Last updated 1/6/24

Parsons finishes as the front-runner for this award after the Cowboys secured the NFC East title.

Parsons did set a career-high in sacks (14) but he and Garrett have very similar numbers. He was often moved around the formation, playing multiple positions more regularly in 2023, which may help his cause. 

DPOY Top 5 Odds

Micah Parsons (-105)

See above analysis.

Myles Garrett (+110)

Garrett finishes the year second in the betting odds, and just barely behind Parsons. The two have been neck and neck all year in the odds and have very similar stats (both men had 14 sacks and 12 stuffs). Garrett played one less game (16) and had fewer tackles but his sack rate was higher than Parsons and he was on a team that often was starting backup QBs. 

T.J. Watt (+400)

Watt suffered a knee injury in the final game of the year but he did manage to win the sack race, finishing with 19.0 on the season. Watt remains the premier rusher in the NFL but was part of a Steelers defense that had issues stopping the run at various points this year. 

Josh Allen (+3500)

Allen was the motor that led the Jaguars defense all year. He ended the year with 17.5 sacks (tied for second) but his case for winning this award was hurt by the Jaguars overall deficiencies on defense which saw them allow 21.8 points (17th) per game.

DaRon Bland (+3500)

Bland had an incredible season marked by 9 INTs (league high), 5 of which he returned for TDs. He likely would have been in the running to win this award if he had not played on the same team as Micah Parson who ended the season as the favorite to take home the honors. 

General DPOY Betting Strategy

Since DPOY is an award that's so heavily geared towards the favorites, this is one of the few spots where it makes sense to bet them before the start of the year. Odds are, if someone like Bosa, Garrett, or Parsons were to win DPOY in 2023, that player's current odds are unlikely to improve.

If anything, these favorites are more likely to see their betting odds decrease as they start to rack up sacks, especially if they get off to excellent starts. With that in mind, you can bet on three or four of your favorites before the start of the season. Even if you place bets on all four of the top DPOY candidates, you’d still make a profit of at least +3.5 units if one of them were to win.

After placing those bets, I would then potentially look to hedge or supplement my portfolio during the year. If an elite defensive player gets off to a rough start in Week 1, it might be worth seeing if his odds subsequently dip. Conversely, if one of the favorites has a monster game, it might be worth adding another bet on that player even at worse odds.

As always, shopping for the best line remains vital. While one player might be the favorite on FanDuel, another could be the favorite on DraftKings. The same is true for BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet. Checking for the best number is the easiest way to get better at sports betting, and bets on futures markets like DPOY are no exception.

When betting awards, I've found that it’s best to have exposure to multiple players and then adjust as the season progresses. That’s easier to accomplish with MVP voting than the DPOY, but it’s certainly possible.

That said, I’m absolutely entering Week 1 with tickets already placed on Bosa, Parsons, and Garrett. They’re the three best players at the most important position on defense, so I expect one of them to win DPOY barring injury.