Rookie RB Model

Dwain McFarland's Rookie RB Model

Last Updated Jul 6th, 2023 8:39 EDT

What is the RB Super Model? And How Does it Work?

Our goal is to identify the top rookie prospects based on data points that tie to fantasy production in the NFL. We tested several advanced data metrics to see how they correlated with fantasy points and integrated the top options into our model.

While this limits our college data set to prospects since 2017, our model is also rooted in the well-established metrics identified by the dynasty community that date further back.

Of course, this combination doesn’t make our model perfect (no model is perfect), but we think it does make it pretty super, and we can’t wait to watch it grow as we gather more data.

Data and metrics utilized:

  • Projected draft capital (Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database)
  • Career adjusted total yards per team attempt (rushing + receiving yards x 2 / team attempts)
  • Best-season adjusted total yards per team attempt
  • Career explosive rush rate (10-plus yard carries)
  • Career missed tackles forced rate (MTF)
  • Career average yards after contact (YCO)
  • Rookie-season age
  • Weight