Anytime TD Picks & First TD Scorer Bets for Week 3: George Kittle and More

Week 3 gives us a handful of touchdown bets where the role and the matchup both line up. Some are shorter prices, some are longer shots, but all four players have legitimate paths to the end zone based on how their teams are using them near the goal line.

Let’s dive into the TD picks!

Anytime TD Picks and First TD Scorer Bets for Week 3

Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown

Odds: -130, DraftKings

This is probably my least exciting touchdown bet of the group, just because it is a short price. But I like Amon-Ra St. Brown to find the end zone against the Jets.

You can get St. Brown at -130 anytime, +500 for first touchdown, and +475 to score two or more touchdowns.

The Jets’ defensive tendencies help significantly here. Dating back to the start of last season, New York has played two-high safety coverage at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. This year, it has leaned into those looks even more, playing two-high at a 66% rate—the fourth-highest mark in football.

St. Brown has absolutely crushed two-high coverage.

According to Fantasy Points, when defenses showed two-high both before and after the snap, St. Brown ranked second in the league in targets inside the 20-yard line dating back to the beginning of last year. He also commanded a 38% air yards share against those looks and is tied for second in touchdowns with nine.

The first-read rate might be the most important number. St. Brown has a 39% first-read rate against two-high coverage, second among qualifying receivers behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Darren Waller Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +350, DraftKings

Darren Waller at +350 is my favorite number on this list.

Yes, he scored twice last week, and I understand the concern about chasing that. But this is not just chasing touchdowns. Waller’s role has grown exponentially over two weeks, especially where it matters most.

In Week 1, Waller played only three of Carolina’s 10 snaps inside the 20-yard line and two of seven inside the 10. He was on the field for 33% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps overall.

In Week 2, those figures jumped dramatically. Waller played 43% of Carolina’s snaps overall, 16 of 24 inside the 20, and nine of 13 inside the 10.

That’s a huge change.

It is only one week, obviously. But Waller signed with Carolina for a reason. The Panthers moved him all over the formation during training camp, including plenty of slot usage, which pointed toward a real red-zone role. He also showed last season in Miami that he still has some juice and can make things happen when the field gets condensed.

At +350, you are not going to find many players with that type of recent high-value usage. He’s also +1800 to score first, and I’ll sprinkle that in.

George Kittle Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +185, DraftKings

George Kittle is still being babied a little bit in terms of overall usage, but Kyle Shanahan is making sure he is on the field when it matters.

Kittle played 11 of 12 red-zone snaps last week and all seven snaps inside the 10-yard line. That is exactly what we want from an anytime-touchdown target.

He’s also tied with Deebo Samuel for the team lead in first-read rate at 20%. Again, he may not be running a full workload between the 20s yet, but his role in the highest-value area of the field is still intact.

Kittle doesn’t need eight catches or a 90% route share to score. He needs one target in a condensed area, where Shanahan can scheme him open or let him use his physicality against a linebacker or safety.

A.J. Barner Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +275, DraftKings

You will not find a better red-zone role than A.J. Barner’s right now.

Barner has played all 13 of Seattle’s snaps inside the 10-yard line and 24 of 27 inside the 20 through two weeks. He has also run routes on 83% of the Seahawks’ passing plays.

That is an incredible combination for a touchdown bet: a near-every-down route role plus complete control of the most valuable snaps on the field.

We even saw Barner score on a tush push last week. That is rare, and it shows just how trusted he is in short-yardage situations, and it gives him another creative path to score.