Bills vs. Vikings Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for MNF Week 9

Even at 6-1, the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings can ill afford to suffer a loss while possessing just a one-game lead for first in their respective divisions. With the Vikings' defense firing on all cylinders, negative regression is looming large over Josh Allen while locked into a defensive slugfest.

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds For Week 9

Spread: Bills -3 (-115, FanDuel)
Moneyline: Bills (-170, Bet365)
Game Total: 44.5 (Over -110/Under -110, FanDuel)

Since the start of the regular season, Josh Allen has built a strong case for winning the MVP award while leading an offense that ranks first in EPA per play. Not only does Allen possess a cannon of an arm, but he is just as lethal with his legs, making it difficult for opposing LBs to contain him in the pocket.

The Vikings, meanwhile, have backed their success on the shoulders of the defense, smothering opponents on a weekly basis. Even when Kyler Murray struggled to find his footing, the defense was able to reduce the amount of negative variance in the contests, keeping the team competitive.

Even with Carson Wentz under center, oddsmakers believe Minnesota’s relentless pressure will help keep it close, listing the Vikings at +3.5. Bettors are in agreement with the opener, steaming the Vikings down to the key number of +3 in most sportsbooks.

Prediction & Pick For Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Week 9 Matchup

The Pick: Vikings +3 (-105, FanDuel)

Josh Allen’s high level of play under center has helped turn the Bills' offense into one of the most efficient units in the league, ranking in the top 5 in QB EPA per play and in success rate. Even with DJ Moore struggling to stay on the field, Allen has had no issue connecting with his supporting cast, averaging 9.3 air yards per throw.

Unfortunately for Allen, he will fall hard back down to reality on Monday night, facing off against a defense that ranks first overall in DVOA and EPA allowed per play while blitzing at the highest rate in the league. With Minnesota’s CBs capable of holding their own in coverage, the Vikings can send extra bodies to the trenches, forcing Allen to get the ball out of his hands quickly after the snap or scramble up the middle for minimal success.

When Allen is stuck in a collapsing pocket, the quality of his throws will harshly decline, leading to an uptick in his total number of turnover-worthy plays. If Minnesota can capitalize on the havoc, the defense will be able to spot Wentz with generous field position, giving the Vikings' backup QB the support he needs to help keep pace with the Bills.

Buffalo’s lack of production on the back end will also give Wentz the opportunity to thrive in his first start since Week 2 by torching a secondary that ranks 26th in dropback EPA allowed per play and in dropback success rate. To help diversify your risk, place a separate wager on the Bills to be held under the team total at no lower than the key number of 24.

Best Player Prop Bet For Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings

James Cook - u84.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)

With Allen stretching out the defense, James Cook has been able to take advantage of the extra space in the second level, ranking in the top half of the board in yards over expected per attempt. The protection Cook receives from the offensive line helps him consistently break through the trenches, with the Bills' RB operating behind a front five that resides in the top 10 in run block grade.

In a daunting matchup against the Vikings, Cook will be forced to fight off contact in the backfield, plummeting his chances of creating an explosive run. Minnesota’s relentless pressure may also force Cook to be utilized more heavily as a dump-off option in an attempt to counter the blitz, trading carries for receptions, which will lower his ceiling as a rusher.