Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 5
Betting

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 5

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Thursday Night Football matchup from a betting perspective, including picks, predictions, and a player prop.

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The more things change, the more they stay the same, including the Dallas Cowboys continuing to underperform on defense after re-tooling the roster in the offseason. In a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jalon Daniels will apply pressure to the Cowboys' second level with his running ability, leading to a thrilling track meet while trading scores.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds For Week 5

  • Spread: Cowboys -8.5 (-108, BetMGM)
  • Moneyline: Cowboys (-470, DraftKings)
  • Game Total: 48.5 (Over -110/Under -108, BetMGM)

In his first start of the year, Jalon Daniels struggled to get into a groove, throwing for just 148 yards while coughing up two picks. It is worth noting Daniels was able to keep drives alive with his legs, gashing the Green Bay Packers for another 55 yards while averaging 6.9 yards per carry.

While the quality of the Packers' defense makes it tough to put too much stock into Daniels' performance, the Bucs' QB1 draws another favorable matchup in the shortened week with the Cowboys hovering near the bottom of the board in EPA.

Even though Dallas is incapable of holding opponents out of the end zone, oddsmakers still believe this is the Cowboys' game to lose, listing them as high as -8.5. Bettors also believe points may come at a premium, steaming the total from 52.5 to 48.5.

Prediction & Pick For Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Week 5 Matchup

  • The Pick: o48.5 (-105, theScore Bet)

When everyone zigs, it’s time to zag, leading to a wager on the over. The Cowboys' poor performance on defense this season cannot be overstated. They are horrifically bad, rivaling the Detroit Lions in defensive DVOA.

With the Cowboys generating pressure at one of the lowest rates in the league, the amount of havoc in Daniels' throws will decline, making it easier to keep a clean sheet while picking apart the gaps in coverage. Daniels' running ability will also force the Cowboys to spy LBs across the middle, widening Daniels' passing lanes on the outside.

Daniels connecting with his pass catchers at a higher rate will force the Cowboys to stretch out in an attempt to slow the Bucs down, creating more space in the middle for Bucky Irving to take advantage of, which will increase his chances of creating an explosive play. With clear paths for success, expect the Bucs to consistently stay ahead of the sticks and get into scoring position at a higher rate.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs' heavy use of the blitz will be a double-edged sword, leaving them vulnerable to getting beat across the middle while CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens consistently break away from single coverage. When under duress, Dak Prescott has been efficient, ranking in the top 10 in QB EPA per play against the blitz.

With money flooding in on the under, patiently wait to see how low it will go before placing a wager on the over.

Best Player Prop Bet For Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys

Jalon Daniels - o42.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)

Not only has the Cowboys' back end underwhelmed in coverage, but the front seven has also been unable to stuff the run, ranking well below league average in defensive rush EPA allowed per play and in success rate. The Cowboys' inability to push back the line opens up wider holes across the trenches, making it difficult to slow opposing QBs down before they take off and run.

Whether it is in the form of a designed run or an attempt to extend the play with his legs, Daniels will be able to generate sizable gains with each carry by torching the Cowboys' back end when a running lane opens up while they are scrambled in coverage. Even with the Bucs projected to play from behind, a pass-heavy game script will create more scrambling opportunities, leading to an uptick in Daniels' total number of rush attempts to help clear the over on his rushing yardage prop.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Jalon Daniels
    JalonDaniels
    QBTBTB
    PPG
    3.3
    Proj
    13.5

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