College Football Best Bets for Week 1: Fading Clemson, Ole Miss and More
Betting

College Football Best Bets for Week 1: Fading Clemson, Ole Miss and More

Kody Malstrom breaks down his three best college football bets for Week 1, including fades of both the Clemson and Ole Miss offenses.

Published

After blitzing our way through the appetizer, the full course meal has finally arrived: Week 1 of college football, the start of every team’s journey, giving us over 90 games to groom through. Below is a breakdown of three matchups I have circled on my betting card, including a wager on LSU to get off to a hot start before capping off the weekend fading Florida State, who looked abysmal in Week 0.

If you have not already subscribed to Fantasy Life+, you can get 10% off any tier sub with the promo code KODY at checkout, giving you full access to our projections and tools to help secure the edge you need to win your leagues.

College Football Best Bets for Week 1

Clemson vs. LSU (-10) (-110, Caesars)

The Lane Kiffin era in Baton Rouge is here, kicking off his first year at LSU with a highly anticipated matchup against the Clemson Tigers. Kiffin’s arrival has given LSU an injection of talent, using the transfer portal to help address every key position. Joining Kiffin is Sam Leavitt from Arizona State, a dual threat quarterback who will give the offense some much needed versatility by consistently gashing opposing front sevens with his legs.

While Kiffin has been able to effectively use the transfer portal, Dabo Swinney’s dismissal of it has ravaged Clemson’s roster over the years, making it difficult for them to be competitive, primarily on offense. The team finish last season ranked below league average in pass play rate, EPA per play and explosiveness.

On the other side of the ball, defending against the big play has also been an issue for Clemson, grading out equally as poor in defensive explosiveness. With LSU adopting Kiffin’s high-flying offense, Clemson’s second level will be forced to stretch out to help mask the secondary, creating wider running lanes for Leavitt to exploit to help keep drives alive. With the spread bouncing back and forth, it’s crucial to bet LSU at no higher than -10, locking in a key number.

Louisville vs. Ole Miss (Team Total u31.5) (-120, FanDuel)

With Kiffin gone, the spotlight is shining brighter on Trinidad Chambliss, a contender for the Heisman award who will be tasked with keeping Ole Miss afloat. While the talent is certainly undeniable, negative regression is looming large with Chambliss no longer getting the benefit of operating in a QB-friendly system.

In their Week 1 matchup against Louisville, expect the Rebels to struggle to recapture the same success they had last year, battling it out against a defense that ranked in the top-20 in defensive pass success rate and in hard stops. With the Cardinals' secondary excelling in coverage, their linebackers will be able to anchor across the middle and spy Chambliss, neutralizing his running ability.

SMU vs. Florida State (Team Total u25.5) (-110, theScore Bet)

Do not let the final score fool you, Florida State severely struggled in its season opener against New Mexico State, raising serious red flags over the legitimacy of the offense. Ashton Daniels was inefficient, completing just 62.9% of his passes while being held to less than 4.0 yards per carry on eight attempts.

Unfortunately for the Seminoles, Daniels' inconsistencies in the pocket will be on full display against an SMU defense that creates disruptions at a high rate, per its top-25 mark in havoc. With the Mustangs smothering Daniels passing lanes, Florida State will be vulnerable to drives stalling out early, leading to a decline in the total number of scoring opportunities.

Published