College Football Best Bets for Week 6: Can Oklahoma Hang with Texas?
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College Football Best Bets for Week 6: Can Oklahoma Hang with Texas?

Kody Malstrom breaks down his three best college football bets for Week 6, including angles on Texas vs. Oklahoma and Maryland vs. Ohio State.

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In the blink of an eye, we are already near the halfway point of the season. Contenders have started to blossom while others have underperformed, creating plenty of intriguing ways to attack Saturday’s college football betting slate. 

To kick things off, we turn our attention to a team total in the Red River Rivalry with John Mateer facing off against a defense that is currently firing on all cylinders.

College Football Best Bets for Week 6

Texas vs. Oklahoma (Team Total u14.5) (-115, BetMGM)

Until Oklahoma decides to bench John Mateer, it’s tough to envision how the offense will round back into form while he continues to rack up turnover-worthy plays. Even with health back on his side, Mateer has been abysmal this season, leading the Sooners to well below league average marks in success rate, explosiveness, finishing drives and havoc allowed.

Unfortunately for the Sooners' QB, his struggles in the pocket are poised to persist against Texas, a ferocious defense that ranks near the top of the board in havoc and points per opportunity. With the Longhorns generating pressure at a high rate, the quality of Mateer’s throws will plummet, making it difficult to stay ahead of the sticks.

When held to an early out, the Sooners will have fewer opportunities to get into scoring position, shading value toward the under on the team total at no lower than the key number of 14. If the spread dips down to a flat 7, diversify your risk by placing a separate wager on the Longhorns to cover the spread as well.

South Carolina vs. Florida (o59.5) (-110, FanDuel)

Fresh off a stunning loss to Missouri, Florida must quickly get back up off the mat or risk falling out of the playoff picture. The lack of production the Gators have received from the defense makes it difficult to be competitive when the quality of the opponent ramps up, fielding a group that ranks in the bottom 70 in success rate, explosiveness and finishing drives.

With South Carolina on deck, Florida will be locked into a highly volatile track meet while trying to contain LaNorris Sellers, a dual-threat QB who is just as lethal with his arm as his legs while generating nearly 300 yards of offense per game. With Sellers under center, the Gamecocks have been efficient, ranking in the top 40 in pass-down EPA per play.

On the other side of the ball, South Carolina has not fared as well on defense, entering Week 6 ranked 117th in explosiveness and 131st in finishing drives. With Florida averaging more than five points per opportunity, expect the Gators to take advantage of South Carolina’s struggles on defense and match the Gamecocks' output, leading to a high-scoring affair.

Maryland vs. Ohio State (Team Total o44.5) (-115, BetMGM)

Look away, Maryland fans, this one may get ugly in a hurry, especially with the defense incapable of holding opponents in front of the sticks while residing in the bottom half of the board in success rate and havoc. With the second level struggling to create disruptions, Julian Sayin will be able to get into a rhythm early, making it easier to pick apart the gaps in coverage.

Speaking of Sayin, the Ohio State QB has been surgical this season, averaging 10.8 yards per throw while completing 72.5% of his passes. Positive regression is also looming large over the Buckeyes RB room, with the Terps giving up explosive plays on the ground at a high rate, creating multiple paths for success to help clear the over on the team total.

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