College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Indiana vs. Minnesota
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College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Indiana vs. Minnesota

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Indiana vs. Minnesota College Gameday Game of the Week, with betting picks, odds, predictions and a player prop bet.

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It may not have been pretty, but Indiana was able to keep its hopes of making the playoffs alive with an ugly overtime win over Michigan. Heading into Saturday’s Big Ten matchup against Minnesota, the Hoosiers will have a great opportunity to round back into form by neutralizing an offense that struggles to get into scoring position.

Here are my top betting picks, odds, predictions and player prop bets for Indiana versus Minnesota. 

Indiana vs. Minnesota Betting Odds For Week 9

  • Spread: Indiana -20.5 (-105, theScore Bet)
  • Moneyline: Indiana (-1400, Fanatics)
  • Game Total: 41.5 (Over -108/Under -112, DraftKings)

Do not let Josh Hoover’s performance against the Wolverines fool you, as the Indiana QB has been efficient this season, throwing just one interception in eight games while averaging 9.3 yards per throw. When Hoover is able to stretch out the defense, Indiana’s offense is lethal, ranking in the top 10 in explosiveness.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is still searching for answers on offense, limping into Week 9 ranked near the bottom of the board in success rate, explosiveness and finishing drives. The Golden Gophers' lack of production on offense brings far too much variance into the contest, lowering the probability of winning.

Oddsmakers believe Minnesota is in for a long night against Indiana, listing the Golden Gophers as a sizable underdog at +20.5. Bettors also believe we are in for a defensive slugfest, steaming the total down to 41.5 after opening at 45.5.

Prediction & Pick For Indiana vs. Minnesota Week 9 Matchup

  • The Pick: Indiana -20.5 (-105, theScore Bet)

Even though Minnesota is 5-2, the Golden Gophers are flirting with disaster while the offense struggles to play at a competitive level. For a group that normally excels on the ground, Minnesota has been abysmal this season, ranking 114th in rush success rate, 132nd in PPA and 133rd in explosiveness.

With Drake Lindsey receiving minimal support from his running backs, opposing secondaries have been able to stretch out in coverage, smothering his windows at multiple levels of the field. Not only has this led to a low completion percentage, but the extra bodies in coverage also increase the amount of havoc in Lindsey’s throws, with the Minnesota QB averaging nearly one interception per touchdown thrown.

Unfortunately for Lindsey, he will continue to struggle to air it out against Indiana while trying to move the ball on a defense that excels in coverage, per top-15 marks in success rate and havoc. The Hoosiers' interior pressure will also force Lindsey to throw on the run, lowering the quality of his passes while under duress.

On the other side of the ball, Hoover will face minimal resistance in his efforts to score by taking advantage of a defense that gives up 3.94 points per opportunity. With the Golden Gophers being held to early outs, Hoover will have more opportunities to get into scoring position, making it easier to pull away on the scoreboard and cover the lofty number. Back Indiana to cover the spread at -20.5 with a stop point at the key number of 21.

Best Player Prop Bet For Indiana vs. Minnesota

Darius Taylor - u31.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Since the start of the regular season, Darius Taylor has struggled to generate yards past the line of scrimmage, mustering just 2.3 yards per carry. That's disappointing considering the protection the Golden Gophers RB receives from the interior of his offensive line, including Greg Johnson, who is projected to be a first-round pick in my latest mock draft.

In a daunting matchup against Indiana, Taylor will continue to be bottled up in the backfield while trying to run up the middle of a front seven that ranks fourth in rush success rate and 12th in PPA. The Golden Gophers are also projected to be comfortably behind on the scoreboard, leading to a pass-heavy game script that will chip away at Taylor’s total number of rush attempts, improving the probability of being held under the total on his rushing yardage prop.

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