College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Notre Dame vs. BYU
Betting

College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Notre Dame vs. BYU

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Notre Dame vs. BYU College Gameday Game of the Week, with betting picks, odds, predictions and a player prop bet.

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For the first time since 2009, the College GameDay crew makes a return to Provo with the BYU Cougars hosting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a top-10 matchup on Saturday night. With both defenses firing on all cylinders, expect a defensive slugfest, leading to a thrilling nail-biter with one bounce being the difference between winning and losing.

Let's take a look at this top-10 showdown from a betting perspective. 

Notre Dame vs. BYU Betting Odds For Week 7

  • Spread: Notre Dame -10 (-106, Caesars)
  • Moneyline: Notre Dame (-380, theScore Bet)
  • Game Total: 47.5 (Over -110/Under -110, BetMGM)

With continuity on both sides of the ball, BYU has been able to avoid getting off to a slow start, entering Week 7 unblemished while sitting atop the Big 12 conference standings. Bear Bachmeier has played a major role in the Cougars' success, leading the offense to top-10 marks in success rate, points per opportunity and havoc allowed.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, has cruised to a 6-0 record while taking advantage of a very favorable schedule. In Notre Dame’s toughest test to date, we will get a better understanding of the legitimacy of the Fighting Irish, giving us the option to either put stock in futures or look for spots to fade them.

Heading into Saturday’s nonconference tilt, oddsmakers believe it’s Notre Dame’s contest to lose, listing the Fighting Irish at -10. Bettors are in disagreement with the opener, steaming the Cougars down to +9.5 in some sportsbooks.

Prediction & Pick For Notre Dame vs. BYU Week 7 Matchup

  • The Pick: u47.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Like BYU, Notre Dame has also been very efficient on offense this season, rivaling the Cougars at the top of the board in success rate and havoc allowed. CJ Carr has been surgical under center for the Fighting Irish, completing over 70% of his passes while averaging 9.6 yards per throw.

Unfortunately for Notre Dame, the ground game has been unable to give the offense the production it needs to be versatile, plummeting to 91st in rush explosiveness. With no fear of getting burned through the middle, BYU’s second level can anchor in coverage and smother Carr’s passing lanes.

Speaking of BYU’s second level, the Cougars back end has been able to neutralize the pass on a weekly basis, per its above-league-average marks in dropback EPA allowed per play and in success rate. By holding the Fighting Irish comfortably behind the line to gain, BYU will force Carr to air out the ball against a stretched-out secondary for minimal success.

On the other side of the ball, Bachmeier will also struggle to build on his momentum while matched up against a defense that ranks third overall in havoc. With the Fighting Irish capable of generating pressure with just the defensive line, Bachmeier will be forced to weave the ball through tight windows, leading to an uptick in his total number of turnover-worthy plays.

With both offenses struggling to get into scoring position while stalling out early on in the drive, place a wager on the under at no lower than the key number of 45.

Best Player Prop Bet For Notre Dame vs BYU

Jonaz Walton - u59.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Not only have the Cougars excelled in coverage, but the front seven has been able to consistently stuff the run, ranking in the top 40 in success rate, PPA and explosiveness. By generating pressure in the interior, BYU is able to create contact at the line of scrimmage, making it difficult for opposing running backs to generate an explosive play.

Even with Jonaz Walton averaging 7.9 yards per carry, the Fighting Irish running back will struggle to reach the second level of the defense while trying to brush off contact, lowering his chances of getting out into the open field. When Walton is slowed down in the backfield, the Cougars' second level will be able to crash down and plug his running lanes, leading to minimal gains with each carry.

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