Colts vs Commanders Pick: Why We're Taking Washington +3.5 in London
Betting

Colts vs Commanders Pick: Why We're Taking Washington +3.5 in London

Justin Carlucci breaks down the Week 4 matchup in London between the Colts and Commanders from a betting perspective.

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Washington and Indianapolis get the early London window Sunday, and this is a much more interesting matchup than it might look at first glance. Marcus Mariota is expected to start again for the injured Jayden Daniels, while the Colts come in as short favorites after an ugly but important win over Houston.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Betting Odds for Week 4

Spread: Colts -3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Colts -220; Commanders +184
Game Total: Over 47.5 (-115), Under 47.5 (-105)

The Colts are fresh off a 19-17 win over the Texans that wasn’t exactly pretty. Washington, meanwhile, got one of the more surprising wins of Week 3 when Mariota led the Commanders to a 33-31 upset over Seattle.

The bigger story for me is how these defenses are being attacked.

Washington has allowed a 51% target share to receivers aligned out wide, the second-highest rate in football. That puts Indianapolis’ outside receivers in play. With Alec Pierce out last week, Laquon Treadwell ran 87% of his routes out wide. The next-closest Colts player was at just 48%.

Treadwell only saw one target, which is obviously not ideal. But he ran the second-most routes on the team behind Josh Downs, and the role matters. If prop lines come out low enough, he is at least worth monitoring against a Commanders defense that has been funneled outside all year.

The Colts have their own coverage issue. They’ve allowed a 38% target share to slot receivers, second-highest in the NFL. Washington moves its receivers around, but Stefon Diggs has been the primary slot player, running 63% of his routes inside. Terry McLaurin has led the Commanders with a 27% target share in Mariota’s two starts, but Diggs has still been second at 19%.

There could be some discounted Diggs markets because of the Mariota factor.

Prediction & Pick for Colts vs. Commanders Week 4 Matchup

The Pick: Commanders +3.5 (-105, FanDuel)

I’m taking Washington plus the points.

Jonathan Taylor is a monster, and Indianapolis may be a better team on paper. I am not trying to argue otherwise. The Colts being favored makes complete sense.

But I think Washington has the schematic ingredients to keep this game close, and getting the hook over a field goal is a big deal.

The Colts have really struggled against the run, especially against zone concepts. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt, the fifth-highest success rate against zone runs, and 5.49 yards per carry against that concept.

That is a problem against Washington.

Under offensive coordinator David Blough, the Commanders lead the NFL in zone-run rate. They have used zone concepts on 78% of their rushing plays. If Washington can get that run game going, it makes Mariota’s life much easier. It keeps the Commanders ahead of the chains, opens up play action, and stops Indianapolis from simply teeing off on a backup quarterback.

Give me Commanders +3.5 in London.

Best Player Prop Bet for Colts vs. Commanders

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Rachaad White didn’t practice Friday again with his shoulder injury, so his status is a major factor. If he is out, “Bill” should see an even bigger workload and becomes one of my favorite rushing prop and touchdown targets of the week.

The Colts have also struggled to tackle, allowing the fourth-highest missed-tackles-forced-per-attempt rate in the NFL.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt
    JacoryCroskey-MerrittQ
    RBWASWAS
    PPG
    7.4
    Proj
    11.8

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