Eagles vs. Jaguars Picks: Why We Like Bhayshul Tuten in London
Betting

Eagles vs. Jaguars Picks: Why We Like Bhayshul Tuten in London

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Eagles vs. Jaguars matchup in London from a betting perspective, including a prop bet on Bhayshul Tuten.

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With Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith dealing with injuries, negative regression is looming large over Philadelphia, muddying the Eagles' season-long outlook for the foreseeable future. Philadelphia’s loss is Jacksonville’s gain, giving the Jaguars a great opportunity to leave London with a win to help remain in contention for the number one overall seed in the AFC.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds For Week 5

  • Spread: Jaguars -7.5 (-105, Caesars)
  • Moneyline: Jaguars (-375, Fanatics)
  • Game Total: 41.5 (Over -105/Under -115, theScore Bet)

Since the start of the regular season, the Eagles have flirted with danger, nearly losing to Washington and Tennessee before dropping a pair of games to the injury-riddled Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. The offense has looked horrific during that span while ranking near dead last in DVOA.

To make matters worse for Philadelphia, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, and Dallas Goedert are currently dealing with injuries, putting more pressure on Jalen Hurts to keep the Eagles competitive while surrounded by backups. Speaking of Hurts, he has been unable to find his footing this season, limping into Week 5 ranked 21st in QB EPA per play.

With Philadelphia’s production on offense expected to fall off a cliff, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations for the Eagles' ability to compete with Jacksonville, listing the Jags as high as -7.5, an eight-point swing from the look-ahead line.

Prediction & Pick For Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars Week 5 Matchup

  • The Pick: Jaguars First Half Team Total o13.5 (+105, DraftKings)

While the Eagles are in the midst of a free fall, the Jags have looked like a well-rounded contender capable of making a run to the Super Bowl, entering Sunday ranked seventh in offensive EPA per play and third in defensive DVOA. With both sides clicking, the Jags are able to reduce the amount of variance in the contest, improving their probability of winning.

Against the Eagles, Trevor Lawrence will be able to continue to methodically move the ball down the field by taking advantage of a defense that has struggled to hold opponents in front of the sticks, per bottom-12 marks in EPA allowed and dropback success rate. Even with the Jags' offensive line struggling in pass sets, Lawrence has still been efficient, leading the league in CPOE while averaging 8.5 air yards.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles will be prone to stalling out while Hurts tries to weave the ball through a secondary that resides near the top of the board in dropback EPA allowed per play and in DVOA. With Barkley and Smith expected to sit out, Hurts will be without his top two skill players, making it easier for the Jags to stretch out in coverage until Will Shipley can pull defensive attention to the box.

When the Eagles are held to early outs, Lawrence will have more opportunities to get into the red zone, increasing the Jags' chances of clearing the over on the team total. With Jacksonville listed as a sizable favorite, bypass the full game total and target the first half to avoid the possibility of getting burned by a conservative late-game script.

Best Player Prop Bet For Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Bhayshul Tuten - o65.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Lawrence’s resurgence under center has also helped create more space in the middle for Bhayshul Tuten to exploit, leading to a top-10 rank in yards over expected per attempt. With fewer bodies to combat at the second level, Tuten is able to generate sizable gains with each attempt, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

With the Eagles ranking 28th in rush EPA allowed per play and in success rate, Tuten will be able to create explosive plays at a higher rate and clear the over on his rushing yardage prop. A conservative game script due to the international travel will also lead to a higher usage rate, contributing to an uptick in Tuten’s total number of carries to help chip away at the total.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Bhayshul Tuten
    BhayshulTuten
    RBJACJAC
    PPG
    12.2
    Proj
    11.0

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