Falcons vs Packers Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 3
Betting

Falcons vs Packers Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 3

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Week 3 Thursday Night Football game between the Falcons and the Packers from a betting perspective, including odds, predictions, and a player prop bet.

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After tearing his ACL at the end of last year, Michael Penix is set to make his return to the field, giving Atlanta its QB1 back. While it remains to be seen how Penix will fare in his first game back from injury, it’s hard to do worse than Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, giving Falcons fans hope that the team can round back into form.

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Betting Odds For Week 3

  • Spread: Packers -5.5 (-105, FanDuel)
  • Moneyline: Packers (-250, FanDuel)
  • Game Total: 43.5 (Over -105/Under -115, bet365)

Since Tua Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury, the Atlanta Falcons have been abysmal on offense, ranking dead last in offensive EPA. Cooper Rush and Jack Strand have plummeted the Falcons' ceiling on offense, grading out equally poor in dropback success rate.

While the return of Penix will help elevate the offense, expectations need to be tempered until he shows he is able to play at a competitive level. Even when healthy, Penix was a low-end QB1 at best last season, finishing 33rd out of 36 qualified QBs in CPOE and 36th in bad throw percentage.

Speaking of bad QB play, Jordan Love has been unable to get out of the gate, kicking off his year ranked 26th in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE. With his offensive line struggling to give him the protection he needs to reduce the amount of havoc in his throws, the Falcons will be able to stall out the Packers' drives at a high rate, shading value toward the under.

Prediction & Pick For Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Week 3 Matchup

  • The Pick: u43.5 (-115, bet365)

Love’s regression this season can be attributed to the lack of protection he receives from his offensive line, a group that ranks dead last in pass blocking per PFF. With less time in the pocket to operate, Love is forced to throw into tight windows, making it difficult for his wideouts to haul in a contested catch.

MarShawn Lloyd has also struggled to hit the ground running, hovering near the bottom of the board in yards over expected per attempt. With no fear of getting burned through the middle, opposing LBs can stretch to the outside and smother Love’s passing lanes.

Heading into Thursday night’s contest against the Falcons, expect the Packers to continue to stall out while facing off against a defense that resides in the top 10 in defensive EPA per play and in dropback success rate. Each early out will chip away at the Packers' total number of possessions on offense, leading to a decline in the total number of scoring opportunities as well.

On the other side of the field, the Packers' front seven have excelled at stuffing the run, fielding a group that ranks second overall in defensive rush success rate. With the Packers plugging Bijan Robinson’s running lanes in the trenches, the Falcons' star RB will be forced to fight off contact in the backfield, lowering his chances of creating an explosive run.

Best Player Prop Bet For Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers

Michael Penix - o18.5 Pass Completions (-130, Caesars)

While I normally try to fade a player coming off of a devastating injury, the mismatch in the trenches will force Penix to air out the ball at a high rate. Even if Penix is unable to stretch the field, quick outs in the form of screens and dump-offs will help counter the clogged middle while simultaneously feeding into his total number of pass attempts.

Penix’s mobility is also in question after tearing his ACL for the third time in his career, forcing him to throw the ball while under duress instead of scrambling away from the Packers' pressure. Robinson is also a viable pass catcher in the backfield, giving Penix a safety valve he can lean on by dumping it off to him when his RB slips to the outside.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Michael Penix
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    PPG
    0.0
    Proj
    12.9

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