Jaguars vs Ravens Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 9

The Baltimore Ravens cannot catch a break. Just when it looked like Lamar Jackson was going to turn the ship around, the two-time MVP got hurt on the first play of the game in his return from injury. With Jacksonville on deck, negative regression is looming large over Baltimore, potentially plummeting the Ravens' odds of making the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds For Week 9

Spread: Jaguars -10 (-110, theScore Bet)
Moneyline: Jaguars (-550, DraftKings)
Game Total: 39.5 (Over -110/Under -110, Fanatics)

After three straight losses, the Baltimore Ravens have stumbled out of the playoff picture, sitting one game back in the wild-card standings for the seventh seed in the AFC. With Lamar Jackson out with an injury, the Ravens will need to quickly find an answer at QB or risk falling farther behind.

While the Ravens have floundered, the Jacksonville Jaguars are firing on all cylinders, possessing a three-game lead for first in the AFC South. Jacksonville’s high level of play on both sides of the ball has helped reduce the amount of variance in their contests, improving the Jags' probability of winning on a weekly basis.

With both teams trending in drastically different directions, oddsmakers believe it’s Jacksonville’s game to lose, with some listing the Jags as high as -10. The line for the total has also cratered, dropping down to 39.5 after opening at 49.5.

Prediction & Pick For Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Week 9 Matchup

The Pick: Jaguars -9.5 (-120, FanDuel)

Not only did Jackson get knocked out on the first play of the game, but Tyler Huntley also went down, forcing the Ravens to put in Joe Fagnano, their third-string QB. In his brief time under center, Fagnano was abysmal against the Buffalo Bills, throwing for just 91 yards and one interception while completing 47.62% of his passes.

With Jackson out of the lineup, the Ravens have harshly regressed on offense, slipping down to 16th in EPA per play with no signs of turning it around anytime soon. Baltimore’s versatility also takes a hit when Jackson is on the sideline, which allows opposing defenses to shade more bodies to the middle with no fear of getting beat over the top, making it difficult for Derrick Henry to keep the team afloat.

To make matters worse for the Ravens, the defense has also struggled to play at a competitive level, entering Thursday night ranked 21st in success rate. With the Ravens allowing opposing offenses to consistently cut the distance to gain in half, Jacksonville’s probability of converting on later downs will skyrocket, helping the offense stay ahead of the sticks, which will lead to an uptick in the Jaguars' total number of scoring opportunities.

The Jags have a clear advantage on both sides of the ball, but given that Jacksonville has steamed up to -9.5/-10 as of Thursday morning, consider placing the Jags in a two-team six-point teaser with the Detroit Lions.

Best Player Prop Bet For Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry - u68.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel)

With opposing defenses allowed to stack the box at a higher rate, Henry has struggled to break through the trenches, limping into Week 9 ranked below league average for the position in yards over expected per attempt. The extra bodies spread across the line of scrimmage force Henry to fight off contact in the backfield, making it easier for the opposing front seven to bring him down before he is able to generate an explosive run.

Unfortunately for Henry, his struggles on the ground are poised to persist against Jacksonville, with the Ravens' star RB facing off against a defense that excels at stuffing the run, per the Jags' top-10 marks in rush EPA allowed per play and success rate. Barring a broken play, expect Henry to be held to minimal gains with each carry, keeping him under the total on his rushing yardage prop.