Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for SNF Week 2

For the second straight week, Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City will host a primetime contest. The Chiefs took care of the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 1, and they’ll host the Colts on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.

Patrick Mahomes and company cruised to an easy victory in their opener, beating the Broncos by 21 points. They finished in the top nine in both yards and points offensively and defensively, so optimism is back in full force in Kansas City. After a dismal campaign in 2025, the Chiefs are once again one of the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl (+575, trailing only the Bills and Ravens).

Conversely, the Colts got taken to the woodshed in Week 1. Their defense was victimized by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, allowing more than 500 yards and 41 points. Their offense could not keep up, finishing just 27th in the league in EPA per play.

Can the Colts bounce back in Week 2, or will the Chiefs cruise to another victory? Let’s dive in.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds For Week 2

Spread: Chiefs -6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Moneyline: Chiefs -285; Colts +240
Game Total: 46.5

For the first time in years, the Chiefs could have a strong rushing attack. Their offense has historically flown through Mahomes’ right arm, but this year, it could be Kenneth Walker’s legs. He was the team’s big offseason acquisition, and he looked the part in Week 1. He gashed the Broncos for 173 yards on just 23 carries, averaging an elite 7.5 yards per attempt.

Walker’s dominance overshadowed the fact that Mahomes was merely average. He did throw for two touchdowns, but he completed just 55.6% of his passes and added an interception. Overall, he averaged just 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt, which was well below his career average.

Of course, part of that could stem from the matchup. The Broncos have an elite defense, especially against the pass. This was also Mahomes’ first game back following a torn ACL. He should be more efficient moving forward, and the Colts look like a fantastic spot to get right. Jackson had 324 yards on just 25 pass attempts vs. the Colts in Week 1, good for a ridiculous 13.8 adjusted yards per attempt.

The Colts are also dealing with a QB returning from a season-ending injury. Daniel Jones suffered a torn Achilles last season, and he did not look like nearly the same player in his first game back. He struggled as a passer—19-for-31 for 166 yards, one touchdown and one interception—but, more concerningly, he didn’t display nearly the same athleticism as a runner. He had just one carry for four yards after averaging more than 28 rushing yards per game across his first seven seasons.

If Jones is not going to be able to use his legs, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he’s a competent quarterback. That’s going to make life more difficult for everyone in Indianapolis.

Prediction & Pick For Chiefs vs. Colts Week 2 Matchup

The Pick: Under 46.5 (-110; FanDuel)

The Chiefs are officially back, baby! That appears to be the prevailing sentiment for most, but I’m going to need to see more before officially making that declaration. They were able to bulldoze the Broncos with their rushing attack, but what happens when that’s not the case?

Additionally, while the Chiefs have been one of the best teams in football in recent years, they have been awful at covering spreads. Since the start of the 2020 season, Mahomes is a nearly unfathomable 27-43-2 ATS when favored by more than a field goal. He was 3-6 in that split last season, and 3-7-1 the year prior.

That makes betting the Chiefs in this spot nearly impossible for me, personally. They already feel a bit overvalued after beating a Broncos team that couldn’t tackle to save their lives:

However bad you thought the Broncos' tackling was against the Chiefs, it was even worse

Denver's 248 missed tackle yards allowed were the most in a single game in @NextGenStats' database. Their 29.8% missed tackle percentage is the third worst single-game score since 2018 https://t.co/Kd0zQjfUFl
— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) September 15, 2026

If the Broncos make a few of those plays defensively, that could’ve been an entirely different ballgame.

That said, I really don’t want much to do with the Colts, either. I’d be tempted to back them if this line got to 7, but the idea of backing Jones is pretty terrifying. He’s always been a mediocre passer but a plus athlete, and if his athleticism is gone, he doesn’t bring much to the table.

Instead, I’m just going to look toward the under. That makes sense in a matchup where I have question marks about both offenses. The Chiefs defense looked great in Week 1, so it’s going to be tough sledding for Indianapolis. The Colts defense looked absolutely putrid vs. the Ravens, but anyone has the potential to look bad vs. Baltimore. They might have the best offense in football when they’re firing on all cylinders, so they should be better by default vs. KC.

Best Player Prop Bet For Chiefs vs. Colts

Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-109; DraftKings)

Taylor has been one of the best pure runners since entering the NFL, but he’s never been much of a pass-catcher. Through his first five seasons, Taylor averaged just 2.1 receptions and 16.3 receiving yards per game.

That said, Taylor saw a clear uptick in receiving work last year. He finished with a career-best 2.7 receptions and 22.2 receiving yards per game, and he caught just under 84% of his targets.

If Week 1 is any indication, Taylor could be poised for another bump. He had a 20% target share against the Ravens, which is an astronomical mark by his standards. He ultimately finished with three catches for 23 yards, and that could be a typical stat line for him in 2026. If Jones isn’t quite as willing to use his legs this season, he could be forced to dump it off to his running back at a higher frequency.