NBA Best Bets for March 4th. Spread Bets, Props, and more to bet.
The sports calendar is slowly heating up, but for the time being, the NBA remains king. While the baseball diamonds and Masters fairways are being tended to, we have a six-game NBA slate to take advantage of on Monday evening. That gives us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets to consider for tonight’s slate:
Los Angeles Clippers (+5.5) at Milwaukee Bucks (-110; BetMGM)
I can’t say that I fully understand this line. Yes, the Clippers are on the road for a second consecutive night, while the Bucks are coming off two consecutive days off. That gives the Bucks an advantage, and there’s always a chance that the Clippers choose to give one of their star players the night off.
Still, this line seems way to large given the gap in production between these squads this season.
The Clippers have been the better team in terms of Net Rating (+4.7 vs. +4.4) and have been significantly better on the defensive end. They’ve been even better when they’ve had all their stars together, posting a Net Rating of +10.4 with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden on the floor this season.
George returned to the lineup for the team’s past two games, including an impressive win over the Timberwolves on Sunday. As long as he’s active – along with Leonard and Harden – this is simply too many points.
You can tail the Clippers at BetMGM, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up with code FANTASYLIFE and place your first bet below:
Chicago Bulls (+7.0) at Sacramento Kings (-114; FanDuel)
This number is down to 6.5 across most of the industry, so I’m grabbing the last remaining 7.0 while I can. The Kings have not been able to duplicate their success from last season, particularly on the offensive end of the court. They were first in the league in offensive efficiency in 2022-23, but they’re down to just 14th this season. That’s not terrible, but that’s obviously not a particularly great figure, either.
If the Kings can’t outscore you, they’re going to struggle to win games by margin. Their defense isn’t good – they’re 21st in defensive rating – so that drop in offensive efficiency has led to a major decrease in Net Rating. They’re outscoring opponents by just +0.3 points per 100 possessions this season, which gives them the expected record of a .500 ball club. The Kings have actually gone 34-25, so they’re a prime regression candidate down the stretch.
Feb 27, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Coby White (0) drives to the basket against Detroit Pistons guard Jaden Ivey (23) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
On the other side, the Bulls have turned things around after a slow start this season. They’ve posted a Net Rating of +0.9 over their past 41 games, and they’ve gone 23-18 over that stretch. Losing Zach LaVine was a big blow, but the emergence of Coby White has negated that loss. He’s posting career-best numbers virtually across the board, while DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic are rock-solid veterans.
The sharps clearly like the Bulls in this spot, and I’m in full agreement. I’ll grab the points with the underdog.
You can tail the Bulls at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets by signing up for a new account below:
Portland Trail Blazers (+14.0) at Minnesota Timberwolves (-110; Caesars)
If there was ever a spot to be bullish on the Blazers, this is it. They’re getting the Timberwolves in a good spot, who have run a gauntlet of a schedule recently. Not only are they playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, but this will also be their third game in four days and fifth game in seven. Their past two games have been particularly grueling: a one-point loss to the Clippers on Sunday and an overtime loss to the Kings on Friday.
The Blazers are obviously a disaster, but they haven’t been quite as bad recently. They’ve won four of their past 15 games, and they’re 23rd in Net Rating over that time frame. They’re still not playing well, but they’re not nearly as bad as they were to start the year.
The Timberwolves have dominated this series, winning the first three games by 72 combined points. It feels gross to back them, but 14 points feels like too many given the brutal schedule spot for Minnesota.
You can tail the Blazers at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!
Keyonte George Over 2.5 3-pointers (-125; DraftKings)
I’ve been fading the Jazz since moving George into the starting lineup, and that’s worked pretty well for the most part. They’ve gone just 1-7 over their last eight games, with the lone win coming against the Spurs. With Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler both now sidelined with injuries, I don’t expect them to look any better Monday vs. the Wizards.
That said, I’m going to go in a different direction. Instead of fading the team, I’m going to buy George as an individual. He’s looked much more comfortable in recent games, particularly from behind the 3-point line. He’s launched an average of 9.0 3-point attempts over his past three contests, including 14 Saturday vs. the Heat. Washington’s defense isn’t awful at defending the 3-point line – they’re 11th in opponent 3-pointers made per game – but if George can knock down six 3-pointers vs. the Heat, I think he can get to three in this matchup.
Ayo Dosunmu Over 4.5 assists (+114; DraftKings)
Since I like the Bulls today, it makes sense to double down with a player prop on the Chicago side. Dosunmu stands out as one of my favorite targets. He’s seen a massive spike in playing time of late, averaging 40.8 minutes over his previous five games. He’s played at least 38 minutes in each of those contests, and he’s responded with an average of 6.8 assists per game.
Dosunmu has handed out at least six dimes in four of his past five games, and he could be looking at an even larger workload if Alex Caruso is unable to suit up. He’s officially listed as questionable, and he sat out the team’s second-to-last contest.
The matchup vs. the Kings is also a good one. Their combination of poor defense and a fast pace results in a No. 23 ranking in terms of opponent assists per game. Add it all up, and I'm bullish on Dosunmu’s prospects in this contest (pun very much intended).
You can tail both props at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat bets when you sign up for a new account below!
