NBA Bets for May 3 - Top NBA Playoff Picks for Friday

We had two more teams punch their ticket to the second round on Thursday. The Pacers managed to take care of business at home vs. the Bucks, while the Knicks closed out the 76ers in Philadelphia. Those two teams will meet in the next round, with the Knicks currently listed as significant favorites.

Two more teams will have the chance to advance on Friday. The Mavericks will take the floor with a 3-2 lead over the Clippers, while the Cavaliers will look to close out the Magic in Orlando.

Can both teams get the job done, or will we be looking at a Game 7?

 Let’s dive into our NBA Best Bets for Friday.

NBA Bets for May 3

Clippers +8.0 at Mavericks (-105; Caesars)

The Clippers were run out of the building in Game 5, with the Mavs handing them the biggest postseason loss in franchise history. That game was played in Los Angeles, and with the series now shifting back to Dallas, it’s easy to say their season is over. That’s particularly true with Kawhi Leonard still out of the lineup with a knee injury.

Still, I think the Clippers still have some fight left in them. James Harden and Paul George were a combined 6-25 from the field and 3-13 from 3-point range, and both players should be better in Game 6. Russell Westbrook was also 2-11 from the field, so it was a pretty poor shooting night for the team overall.

The other games in this series have all been highly competitive. Games 2 and 4 were decided by a combined eight points, so I think this number is a bit inflated by the Game 5 blowout. The sharps seem to agree, with the Clippers getting 50% of the dollars on just 10% of the bets (per the Action Network). I’m not sure if the Clippers can beat the Mavericks, but I think this game should be much closer.

Cavaliers vs. Magic Over 200.0 (-108; DraftKings)

We hit the over in Game 5 of this series, and I’m going right back to the well in Game 6. Unders were dominant in the early stages of the postseason, but the over has made a return to prominence recently. It’s hard for an NBA game to go under 200 points in the modern NBA, even with two defense-focused squads.

These teams continue to play at a faster pace than expected. This has actually been the fourth-fastest series overall, and the fastest matchup among Eastern Conference squads. Each of the past three games has eclipsed 200 total points, despite the Cavaliers providing minimal offensive production over that stretch. They’ve averaged just 97.5 points per 100 possessions in those contests after averaging 114.7 during the regular season.

If Cleveland can pick up the scoring production just a smidge, this game has the potential to go over 200 points pretty comfortably.

More Bets for Friday's NBA Playoff Games

Terance Mann Over 4.5 rebounds (+122)

Mann is currently questionable for the Clippers, but I expect him to be in the lineup come tip-off. Not only that, he'll have to continue to carry an expanded workload with Leonard sidelined. Mann has played at least 31.7 minutes in all three games without Leonard in this series, and he likely would’ve played more in Game 5 had it not turned into a blowout. Still, he played more than enough to cash his rebound prop, finishing with seven boards.

Mann has now gone for at least seven rebounds in two of three games without Leonard, and I see no reason why that production can’t continue. He averaged 4.9 rebounds per 36 minutes during the regular season, and he averaged 4.8 boards in 13 games with at least 30 minutes of playing time. I love the over on 4.5 boards at +122, and you can consider laddering him up as well.

Franz Wagner Under 4.5 assists (+110)

Wagner has established himself as the Magic’s clear No. 2 option, and he can do a little bit of everything. That said, he’s not exactly Tyrese Haliburton from an assist perspective. He averaged just 3.7 assists per game during the regular season, and he’s been at four assists or fewer in three of five postseason contests.

The Cavaliers are also a tough matchup. They were an excellent defensive team during the regular season, and they allowed the sixth-fewest assists per game. I’ll take my chances on under 4.5 at better than even money.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

• Yesterday: 1-3 (-1.10 units)
• Playoffs: 20-22 (-1.60 units)