NBA Bets Today - Top Picks for Friday's NBA Playoff Games
We have a trio of Game 3s on the docket for Friday. We’ll have an earlier start than usual, with the Bucks and Pacers tipping off in Indiana at 5:30 p.m. ET. The Clippers and Mavericks will take the floor at 8 p.m. ET, while the Timberwolves and Suns wrap things up at 10:30.
The staggered start may not be great for those on the West Coast, but we stay-at-home bloggers in the East certainly appreciate it.
Two of these series are currently tied at one game apiece, while the Timberwolves have grabbed a 2-0 lead over the Suns. That makes Game 3 essentially a must-win for Phoenix, while the winner in the other series will grab a crucial 2-1 lead.
Before 2018, teams that win Game 3 of a tied series have gone on to advance at a 73.3% clip. I don’t have the numbers since then, but the importance of this contest cannot be overstated.
Let’s dive into some of my NBA best bets for Friday’s slate.
NBA Bets Today – Top Picks for Friday's NBA Playoff Games
Clippers +4.5 at Mavericks (-105; BetMGM)
The Clippers may have lost Game 2 vs. the Mavericks, but they took a big step toward winning the war. They got Kawhi Leonard back from injury after missing the previous nine contests, and Kawhi remains their most important player. When Leonard was on the floor this season, the Clippers increased their Net Rating by +10.1 points per 100 possessions.
When Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden shared the court, they outscored opponents by +10.0 points per 100 possessions.
Leonard was limited to just under 35 minutes in his first game back, and he’ll likely play a bit more as the series progresses. George has averaged more than 37 minutes per game in this series, while Harden has been above 40.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are going to get theirs for Dallas, but the Clippers have the more complete roster. The Mavs only have one other player averaging more than 5.0 points per game through the first two contests (P.J. Washington), so they’re pretty much a two-man show. This series looks poised to go the distance, but I think the Clippers’ depth will win out in the end.
Bucks +6.0 at Pacers (-105; Caesars)
The Bucks are still playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they’ve been competitive through the first two games without him. They managed to win Game 1 in Milwaukee before losing in Game 2.
The series now shifts to Indiana, and the Pacers will take the floor as the biggest favorites of the day. That feels like an overreaction. Indiana isn’t a bad team, but they haven’t fared particularly well as favorites this season. They’re just 21-22-1 ATS in that split, including 14-14-1 as a home favorite.
The Pacers can score the ball against anyone, but their defense remains a major question mark. It’s a big reason why the Pacers were second in Offensive Efficiency this season but merely 10th in Net Rating.
Pascal Siakam has carried the offense through the first two games vs. the Bucks, but he seems due for some regression. He’s averaged 36.5 points per game while shooting 64.6% from the field after shooting 53.6% during the regular season. Ultimately, I think the Bucks can keep this game close.
More Bets for Friday's NBA Playoff Games
Suns -4.5 vs. Timberwolves (-108)
I just can’t quit the Suns. They’ve given us no reason to believe in them, yet I still think they’ll win in Game 3. Game 3 has historically been the spot where underdogs make their stand. You can lose the first two games on the road, but if you win Game 3 back at home, you’re right back in the series. We saw the Magic get demolished in their first two games vs. the Cavaliers before storming back in Orlando, and I think Phoenix can do something similar on Friday.
Damian Lillard Over 31.5 points (-105)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I rode with Lillard in Game 2, and he responded with 34 points and a 31.2% usage rate.
He’s taken on a massive scoring burden with Giannis sidelined, and I see no reason why that would change in Game 3. His scoring prop remains a couple of points too low.
Kawhi Leonard Over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
Let’s double down on Kawhi. Not only should he help the Clippers, but his rebound prop for Friday seems a bit too low.
Leonard ripped down seven boards in Game 2, and he averaged 6.4 rebounds per 36 minutes during the regular season. Dallas is not a good rebounding team – they were 27th in team rebound rate this season – so Leonard should be able to get to six boards again in Game 3.
2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.535 units)
- Playoffs: 9-10 (-0.825 units)
