NBA Picks For March 27th - Against The Spread Picks And Player Props To Bet
College basketball resumes on Thursday, but you don’t have to wait til then to get your basketball fix. The NBA is offering up a massive slate on Wednesday with 12 games to choose from and, of course, I have my favorite NBA picks for March 27th.
Unfortunately, such a big slate also comes with a large number of injury question marks. Almost every team has at least one player listed as questionable, so there’s a lot to keep your eye on leading up to tip-off.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite wagers for Wednesday’s monster slate.
NBA Picks Against the Spread for March 27th
Magic (-4.5) vs. Warriors (-108; DraftKings)
Orlando entered the year hopeful to make a trip to the postseason, but they’ve absolutely shattered most expectations.
They’ve flown past their preseason win total of 37.5, and they’re comfortably seated at the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Magic have kicked things into high gear during the second half of the year. They’ve gone 12-4 since the All-Star break, and they’re fifth in the league in Net Rating over that stretch. Their schedule over that span hasn’t been particularly tough, but they did secure a big win over the Pelicans two games ago.
They’re catching the Warriors at the perfect time on Wednesday. Golden State will be on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, while the Magic last played on Saturday. They’re also in a long homestand, so they have a clear edge from a rest and travel perspective.
The Warriors also just aren’t a particularly good team anymore. They’re 14th in Net Rating since the All-Star break, and the Rockets are hot on their tail for the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament.
Ultimately, I’m expecting the Magic to continue to do what they’ve done for most of the second half: cruise to a comfortable win.
Knicks (-13.5) at Raptors (-106; FanDuel)
The Raptors might be the worst team in the league at the moment. They’ve lost 11 straight games, and they haven’t been close to competitive in most of those contests. They’re dead last in Net Rating during that stretch (-15.0), and six of those losses have come by double-figures.
It’s not entirely Toronto’s fault. They’ve lost a bunch of franchise stalwarts to trades and free agency over the past few years, and they’ve been hit hard by injuries. Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl have all missed a bunch of time, and all four players will remain out on Wednesday.
I feel very comfortable laying big points against this decimated Raptors squad, especially with a team like the Knicks. New York is not the type of team that takes the night off against subpar competition. Tom Thibodeau has his team playing hard on a nightly basis, so they should be able to take care of business.
Nuggets (-7.0) vs. Suns (-112; DraftKings)
Don’t look now, but the Nuggets are rounding into shape. They weren’t bad in the first half of the season, but they weren’t exactly dominant either. They were ninth in Net Rating over the first half of the season, outscoring opponents by just +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
After the All-Star break, though, this team has turned into a monster. They’re a league-best 15-2 over the second half of the year, and only the Celtics have been better in terms of Net Rating. They’ve even managed to win some games at less than full strength recently, with Jamal Murray missing two straight and Nikola Jokic getting a rare night off two games ago.
Jokic is listed as probable for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Suns, while Murray and Aaron Gordon are both considered questionable. There’s a chance that this team is closer to 100%, but Jokic should be active at a bare minimum. Jokic is cruising to the third MVP award of his illustrious career, averaging a near triple-double with 26.1 points, 12.3 boards, and 9.0 assists per game.
On the other side, the Suns continue to flounder. They haven’t been bad, they just haven’t lived up to their massive talent level for most of the year. They’ve been the third-worst ATS team in basketball, covering in just 41.4% of their 72 contests.
The Suns have some injuries of their own to contend with, with Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic both listed as questionable. Going up against the Nuggets at less than full strength is a recipe for disaster, especially when one of those players is your starting center.
Denver is nearly unbeatable at home, going 49-36-2 ATS since the start of last season. I’ll lay the points in this spot.
NBA Player Props for March 27th
Kris Murray Under 10.5 points (-110; DraftKings)
- Play To: Under 10.5 (-125)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Under 10.5 in 63.9%
Keegan’s younger brother was the No. 23 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, and he’s gotten the opportunity to play more for the Blazers down the stretch. He’s started the past 18 games for Portland, and he’s averaged just under 31 minutes per game in those contests.
That said, the uptick in volume hasn’t led to a huge uptick in production. He’s averaged just 8.8 points per game over that stretch, shooting just 40.9% from the field and 21.9% from 3-point range. His coming off a brutal showing in his last outing, knocking down just two of 11 shots for four total points.
The Paydirt sims think this number is too high for Murray, going under 10.5 points nearly 64% of the time. That’s good enough for a play at -110.
Devin Booker Over 4.5 rebounds (+102; FanDuel)
- Play To: Over 4.5 (-125)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 4.5 in 64.92%
Booker is known for his scoring ability, and he’s one of the best in the business at putting the ball in the hoop. That said, he’s become a more well-rounded player. He’s averaging a career-best 6.9 assists per game this season, while his 4.8 rebounds per game is the second-highest mark of his career.
Booker has been particularly good on the glass of late, racking up at least six rebounds in five of his past six games. Denver isn’t a great matchup for rebounding purposes – they’re sixth in team rebound rate – but this number is simply too low. Getting the over at better than even money is a steal, and I’d be happy to play this prop to -125.
