NFL Best Bets For Week 4: Back The Rams With Stars Returning

Well, that was a humbling week. Just one week after a perfect 5-0 record, I proceeded to give it all back. I was 0-5 last week, bringing my overall record to 8-7 in this column.

There was always going to be some regression, but 0-5 still hurts pretty bad. Still, I don’t think I was that far off on most of my picks. Just to recap:

Ravens -3.5: won by three
Jets +6.5: lost by seven
Texans -2.5: winning by one late, lost on a last-second FG
Titans +3: Had a chance to win late; Cam Ward threw a pick in the end zone
Buccaneers ML: OK, this one was basically always dead

Let this be a reminder of the importance of getting the best number. If I had gotten the Ravens or Jets earlier in the week, those losses would’ve been turned into pushes.

We’re back to the drawing board for Week 4. It’s our first slate of the season with a London game, which is always a tough handicap. The games start at 9:30 a.m. ET, so it’s a bit of an adjustment for the players.

Let’s get back on track with this week’s best bets, starting with the London contest.

Week 4 NFL Best Bets

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Commanders (Wembley Stadium)

Best Odds: -110; FanDuel
Play To: -115

The London games are a bit polarizing, but I’m definitely a fan. NFL Sundays are about cramming as much football, betting, and fantasy as possible into a single day, so why not start earlier than usual? If I can find a bet I like in that contest, I love the prospect of trying to pick up a win before the typical Sunday even gets started.

Fortunately, that’s the case this week with the Colts. The public is unsurprisingly flocking to the Commanders after last week’s upset of the Seahawks. After all, if they can beat Seattle straight up, why can’t they at least cover against the lowly Colts?

That said, last week’s performance was extremely fluky. The Seahawks thoroughly dominated that matchup, outgaining the Commanders 437-258. The big difference was Seattle’s three turnovers, including a back-breaking pick-six. Ultimately, the Seahawks lost that game more than the Commanders won it.

Meanwhile, the Colts put together an impressive showing of their own. The Texans entered this year as a fringe AFC Super Bowl contender, but the Colts were simply the better team. They managed to lose the turnover battle 0-3, yet they still managed to prevail. That’s easier said than done.

If the Colts can play at that level vs. the Commanders, they should be able to take care of business. The sharps are all over the Colts this week, and I agree with them in this spot. So does our NFL Betting Game Model, which believes the line should be Colts -4.5.

New York Jets (+3.5) at Chicago Bears

Best Odds: -115; DraftKings
Play To: -120

The Jets are sitting at just 1-2, but they’ve been extremely competitive through the first three weeks. They should’ve beaten the Packers in Week 2, while they went blow-for-blow with the Lions last week. They tied the game at 24 apiece with roughly four minutes left in the fourth quarter, but they couldn’t keep Detroit out of the end zone one last time.

The defense has been their biggest strength. They’re currently No. 2 in yards per game allowed, and they’re 14th in EPA per play. While they’re probably not an elite unit, they’ve been pretty darn good.

Offensively, Geno Smith has done a complete 180 after his disastrous year in Las Vegas. He’s averaged a career-best 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt through his first three contests, and he was nearly perfect last week vs. the Lions. He completed 31-for-37 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns, and his only blemish was a late sack-fumble that officially ended New York’s chances.

Meanwhile, the Bears are still playing without starting quarterback Caleb Williams. They managed to survive with Case Keenum under center in Week 3, but it’s hard to imagine that success continuing. He has just a 31-36 record as a starter in his career, and he’s just 10-18 over his past 28 games. Ben Johnson may be an offensive guru, but if he can continue to win with Keenum (or backup Tyson Bagent), he might just be a miracle worker.

Ultimately, the Jets’ defense should be able to slow down Chicago, and Smith has proven he can do just enough to keep the Jets’ offense competitive. This should be a close game, so I’ll take the +3.5.

Miami Dolphins (+10.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Best Odds: -105; FanDuel
Play To: -115

The Vikings can’t keep getting away with it. They have been the most unimpressive of the 3-0 teams so far this season. Specifically, their offense ranks dead last in yards per game, while their defense is 12th. As a result, they’ve been outgained by the third-largest margin in the entire NFL. Somehow, they’ve managed to outkick their expected production on both sides of the ball, ranking second in scoring defense and 16th in scoring offense.

Ultimately, those numbers should meet eventually. Yards lead to points, so if you can’t win the yardage battle consistently, you’re going to see the results on the scoreboard at some point.

Maybe that won’t matter vs. the Dolphins, who are probably the worst team in the league. Still, I can’t pass up the opportunity to fade the Vikings at +10.5. That type of number should be reserved for the best teams in football, and the Vikings are certainly not that.

Additionally, history suggests that the Dolphins are the correct side. Since 2005, teams that start the season 0-3 are 52-33-3 ATS in Week 4, good for a +18% ROI. If you add in an 0-3 ATS mark, the sample improves to 21-12-3 ATS (+22% ROI). Four teams fit that trend this week – the Dolphins, Chargers, Texans, and Buccaneers – but Miami is my favorite of that group.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.0) at Philadelphia Eagles

Best Odds: -108; DraftKings
Play To: -115

The Rams are coming off an improbable loss last week. They pretty thoroughly dominated against Denver, winning the yardage battle 482-257. They were up 16-0 at halftime, but the Broncos did what they did all of last year: came storming back after halftime. Still, the Rams were in control, even with the Broncos recording a pick-six. If not for some questionable flags down the stretch – one of which negated a potential game-winning interception for the Rams – Los Angeles would’ve prevailed.

Despite their 1-2 record and the extended absence of Myles Garrett, this is still one of the best teams in football. They should only be better in Week 4 with Puka Nacua back in the lineup. Matthew Stafford is still performing at a high level, while the defense has been more than good enough with Aaron Donald back in the mix.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are just not a very good football team. They were embarrassed by Keenum in Week 3, and their offense has yet to prove that they can move the ball consistently. They’re outside the top 20 in both offensive and defensive EPA, so their reputation is the only thing keeping this number from being higher.

Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Best Odds: -108; FanDuel
Play To: -110

Full disclosure: it was really difficult to find a fifth pick this week. I kicked the tires on a few different options, but I ultimately settled on the Raiders.

On one hand, the Raiders are possibly a bit overvalued at the moment. They’re 3-0, joining the Chiefs and Bills as the last remaining undefeated teams in the AFC. To quote Sesame Street, one of those things is not like the other. The Raiders are not one of the best teams in the league, and eventually, their record is going to reflect that.

However, that doesn’t mean the Raiders aren’t good. They are a legit 3-0, outplaying each of their first three opponents. Specifically, their defense looks formidable. They’ve forced nine turnovers through the first three weeks, which is the most in football. The Panthers are the only other team with more than six.

If they can slow down the Chiefs’ offense just a smidge, they should be able to keep this game competitive. While the Chiefs have historically been elite at winning games with Patrick Mahomes under center, they have struggled to cover the spread. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Chiefs are merely 28-44-2 ATS with Mahomes under center as favorites of greater than a field goal. I’m a bit more skeptical of this pick than the other four, but I think it’s the best of the remaining options.

Published Oct 2, 2026, 1:00 PM ET