NFL Best Bets For Week 5: Fade The Public In WAS vs. NYG

Now that’s more like it. Our rollercoaster ride of a season continues, with a 4-1 record last week. We were 5-0 in Week 2 and 0-5 in Week 3, so there have already been a ton of ups and downs. Ultimately, our season record improves to 12-8, which puts us at exactly a 60% win rate. If we can maintain that over the rest of the season, we will gladly take it.

When betting on sports – particularly the NFL – it can often feel like everything goes against us. With that in mind, it’s important to remember when things break in our favor. That was definitely the case last week, where at least three of our wins featured good fortune:

Rams -3.0: Down 10 with less than eight minutes in the fourth quarter, and the Eagles have fourth-and-goal from the two-yard line. The Eagles go for it, the Rams get the stop, and proceed to score 14 unanswered points to win by four.
Dolphins +10.5: Down five with the Vikings driving to end the game. T.J. Hockenson has a sure-fire touchdown but decides to go down at the one-yard line, and the Vikings kneel it three times to end the game.
Raiders +4.5: Down 11 with less than two minutes to go. Kirk Cousins pulls a rabbit out of his hat to complete a touchdown to Brock Bowers, and he follows it up with a two-point conversion to Cody White. They ultimately lose by three to cover the number.

Add in Marcus Mariota getting hurt in London, and arguably all four of our wins could’ve been losses. I’ll definitely try to remember those the next time something doesn’t go my way, but no promises.

Week 5 NFL Best Bets

Our focus now shifts to Week 5, and I’ve got five more picks on tap. It’s our first week of the season where byes are in play, so we have fewer opportunities than usual to look for value. Still, there are a handful of spots I like this week.

Washington Commanders (-3.5) vs. New York Giants

Best Odds: -105; Caesars
Play To: -110

This is one of my favorite “fade the public” spots this week. Unsurprisingly, people are flocking to bet the Giants as underdogs against the Commanders. They’re 3-1, while Washington is sitting at just 1-3, so the public is gladly taking more than a field goal with what they believe to be the superior team.

I couldn’t disagree more. Washington may not be an elite football team, but they’re not bad with Jayden Daniels under center. They went toe-to-toe with the Eagles in Week 1 and moved the ball at will against the Cowboys in the first half of Week 2. They even managed to upset the Seahawks in Week 3 with Marcus Mariota under center before things fell apart in London last week.

Meanwhile, the Giants have feasted on a favorable schedule. They’ve taken care of business against the Titans and Cardinals over the past two weeks, though both games could’ve gone either way. Both of those squads were driving for game-winning touchdowns before back-breaking interceptions from Cam Ward and Jacoby Brissett.

With Daniels back in the lineup, this will be easily the Giants’ toughest test since getting throttled by the Rams in Week 2. I personally don’t think they’re up for it. They’re dead last in EPA per play offensively since losing Jaxson Dart to an injury, so if the Commanders can put some points on the scoreboard, New York is going to struggle to keep up.

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Best Odds: -102; FanDuel
Play To: -108

You might think I’m crazy for going back to the well with the Dolphins this week. We were lucky to escape with a cover in Week 4, so why tempt fate? That said, I don’t think this Bengals team is good enough to be favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone.

Cincinnati’s defense may be slightly better than in previous years, but they’re still a pretty weak unit overall. They gave up 27 points to the Buccaneers and 30 points to the Steelers, and they let C.J. Stroud move the ball at will against them in Week 2. Overall, they’re merely 22nd in yards per game allowed through the first four weeks.

That’s not a killer if you have an elite offense, which the Bengals do on paper. That said, they haven’t exactly looked the part to start the year. They’re merely 10th in EPA per play, and they’re outside the top 10 in both points and yards per game.

To cover a number this big, you either have to score a bunch of points or stifle the opposition. I don’t think the Bengals are capable of either, especially with Ja’Marr Chase out of the lineup.

Unfortunately, we missed the Dolphins at +7.0, which the sharps gobbled up early in the week. I’m still fine with Miami at this number, though I wouldn’t play it much past -105.

Tennessee Titans (+7.5) vs. Houston Texans

Best Odds: -110; DraftKings
Play To: -120

Let's continue to go dumpster diving with the Titans. They’ve been quite possibly the worst team in football to start the year, particularly on offense. They’re 32nd in yards per game and 31st in points, which is a big reason why they’re 0-4.

That said, the Titans have quietly been pretty respectable on defense. They’re in the top 10 in points allowed and 15th in yardage, though they do slip outside the top 20 in EPA per play.

Their defense has ultimately been good enough to keep them in most of their games. They were leading late against the Eagles in Week 2, and they could’ve beaten the Giants in Week 3. They even managed a backdoor cover against the Ravens last week, though that was due more to Lamar Jackson getting hurt than anything else. Still, the only game where the Titans have looked completely overmatched was all the way back in Week 1.

The Texans enter this contest absolutely desperate for a win, but that doesn’t mean this is going to be a blowout. Their offense has struggled to move the ball consistently, while their defense doesn’t look quite as imposing as it did last year. This is another game I expect to be close, and the Titans should have a backdoor chance late at a minimum.

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Best Odds: -110; BetMGM
Play To: -120

I wrote previously about one of my favorite NFL betting angles: backing good teams with backup quarterbacks. We did that successfully with the Seahawks in Week 2, and I’m going to employ the same strategy with the Ravens.

The gap from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley is definitely greater than the dropoff from Sam Darnold to Drew Lock. The Seahawks’ offense didn’t really skip a beat with Lock under center, while the same can’t be said for the Ravens. Jackson is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in football, and without him, the Ravens aren’t the same caliber of team.

That said, the oddsmakers have moved the line eight full points to account for Jackson’s injury. They went from 4.5-point road favorites to 3.5-point underdogs, which feels like a bit too much. Before the start of the season, a group of oddsmakers listed Jackson as 5.89 points better than Huntley, so eight points is a bit of an overcorrection.

The Falcons also feel like a prime fade candidate. They’ve put together two extremely impressive offensive performances in back-to-back games, but they’ve come against the Packers and Saints. Doing it against the Ravens will be a much tougher task. If they can slow down Bijan Robinson, which is easier said than done, I think they can keep it within a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Best Odds: -105; FanDuel
Play To: -115

The Colts are another team I’m looking to fade in Week 5. They’re coming off an awesome showing in London last week, but that game was a bit of an outlier. Mariota went down with an injury in that contest, and things were pretty competitive before that happened. Once Athan Kaliakmanis entered at quarterback, the Colts were able to pull away.

On the other side, the Steelers’ offense is quietly starting to roll. They’re eighth in offensive EPA over the past two weeks, scoring 30 points against the Bengals and 24 points against the Browns. The Steelers were expected to be better offensively after replacing Mike Tomlin with Mike McCarthy, and that’s starting to come to fruition.

The sharps have targeted Pittsburgh in this matchup, while our NFL Betting Game Model lists the projected spread at Steelers -4.0. I’m happy to join them in this spot.

Published Oct 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET