NFL Parlay Picks for Week 6: Why We Like the Underdog Giants

We ultimately came up just short in Week 5. We nailed our three “safer” selections—Steelers ML, Ravens ML, and a Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime touchdown—but the Dolphins couldn’t get the job done for us. Still, I liked the selection process with the picks, so we’re hopefully trending in the right direction.

Hitting a parlay is extremely difficult, but the payoff can be huge. Getting just one right during the course of the season can cover all of the parlays that come up short.

Let’s get right back on the horse for NFL Week 6. As usual, we’re going to hit four different parlay pieces at four different price points. These can be combined into one parlay or combined with some of your own favorite selections.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 6

The Underpriced Favorite

Bears ML (-115) at Falcons

I touched on the Bears in my Week 6 Best Bets column, so I’m not going to dive too heavily into this selection. In short, I’m very bullish on the offense that we saw from Chicago in Week 1. With Caleb Williams back in the fold, I expect them to move the ball pretty easily against the Falcons.

Conversely, I have zero confidence in Michael Penix’s ability to finish the game. He has a long track record of injuries, and while I respect the fact that he’s going to play, it feels like he’s just a hit away from Tua Tagovailoa entering the game. Even if Penix does go the distance, I still think the Bears are the superior squad.

The Underdog

Giants ML (+106) vs. Saints

This is another pick from my best bets column. I can’t for the life of me understand why the Giants are underdogs at home vs. the Saints. Are the Giants as good as their 3-1-1 record? Definitely not. But do they deserve to be home dogs against New Orleans? I don’t think so.

The Saints’ offense got off to a hot start this season, but they have slowed down in recent weeks. That could be due to the number of injuries they’ve sustained—particularly on the offensive line—but they were never expected to be a great unit to begin with. The fact that they lit up the Lions in Week 1 looks a lot less impressive in retrospect.

New Orleans' defense is bad, ranking 27th in EPA per play, so they’re not going to win many games if their offense continues to struggle. The Giants are a team that I’m definitely not bullish on, but this line just feels disrespectful.

The Longshot

Chargers ML (+370) at Chiefs

We went pretty conservative with our “underdog” selection this week, but our last two picks are doozies. The Chargers are 0-5 this season, and their offense has been putrid. Not only are they facing an undefeated Chiefs’ squad on the road, but Kansas City is also coming off a bye week. On paper, this should be a demolition.

Still, I just can’t help but have some interest in the Chargers at this price tag. Justin Herbert has a decent track record against Kansas City. He has four wins in 11 matchups, which is better than most can say when facing Patrick Mahomes. He’s also averaged 265.7 passing yards per game with 22 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions, resulting in an average of 8.28 adjusted yards per attempt. Herbert doesn’t have a ton of help at the moment, but this could be a “kitchen sink” game for the Chargers. Their chances of a miraculous turnaround are already nearly impossible, but that dream would be officially dead at 0-6.

The Chiefs are also notorious for winning but not covering the spread. If this game can stay competitive throughout, Herbert and company could have a chance to steal things late. The fact that the Chiefs are expected to be without Rashee Rice only increases the chances of this being a competitive contest.

The Touchdown Prop

Efton Chism Anytime TD (+350)

The Patriots’ offense looks all the way back. Drake Maye got off to a brutal start this season, but he has looked like the 2025-26 version of himself over the past two weeks. He has seven total touchdown passes in those contests, and he’s averaged an elite 10.4 adjusted yards per attempt.

Chism is someone whose role in the Patriots’ offense is growing. He had the game-winning touchdown two weeks ago, and he had a season-high 74% route participation and team-high six targets last week. That’s not the profile of someone who should be available at +350 for an anytime touchdown, especially in a good offense.

Final Parlay: Roughly +8000

This parlay is ultimately quite ambitious. The Chargers and Chism are not for the faint of heart, so I completely understand if you want to go in a different direction. However, I think all these bets are +EV on their own, so combining them into an 80-to-1 lottery ticket works for me personally. Best of luck to you, however you choose to build out your betting card this week!