NFL Spread Picks for Week 8: Why We Like the Ravens to Cover vs. the Bills

With the margin for error razor-thin when it comes to securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Baltimore Ravens fans are holding their collective breath, praying Lamar Jackson is able to make his return to the field to take on the Buffalo Bills. Speaking of playoff implications, the Minnesota Vikings are in a favorable position to create some separation at the top of the NFC when they hit the road to battle it out against Detroit.

NFL Spread Picks for Week 8

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-115, BetMGM)

When healthy, Lamar Jackson is one of the most dynamic QBs in the league, rivaling Josh Allen at the top of the board in QB EPA per play, CPOE, and success rate. Not only has Jackson been surgical with his arm, but the Baltimore Ravens QB has also terrorized opposing front sevens with his legs, averaging 7.6 yards per carry.

With Jackson expected to suit up for this Sunday’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills, the Ravens' offense will have a great opportunity to round back into form by taking advantage of a defense that ranks near dead last in DVOA. Jackson’s presence under center will also help pull the Bills' LBs to the outside, creating more room in the middle for Derrick Henry to exploit.

Even if Jackson is unable to make his return from injury, Allen will struggle to set a scoring pace too fast for Tyler Huntley to keep up with while battling it out against a Ravens defense that ranks in the top 10 in EPA allowed per play. Place a wager on the Ravens to cover the spread at no lower than +3 with intentions of adding more to your position at +6 or higher if Jackson is ruled out.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) (-115, Hard Rock Bet)

Since the start of the regular season, the Dallas Cowboys have been dominant on offense, entering Week 8 ranked fourth in EPA per play. While the offense has thrived, the defense has lowered the team’s ceiling, hovering near the bottom of the board in DVOA.

Fortunately for Dallas, Dak Prescott will be able to keep the Cowboys competitive against Arizona by picking apart a secondary that struggles in coverage, per their below-league-average mark in dropback success rate. If the Cowboys cross through the key number of -7, pair them with the New England Patriots in a two-team six-point teaser.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-115, theScore Bet)

While the Minnesota Vikings comfortably lead the league in EPA allowed per play, the Detroit Lions find themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum. Detroit’s secondary has played a major role in the Lions' struggles on defense this season, residing in the bottom five in dropback EPA allowed per play and in success rate.

With the secondary struggling to keep a body in the vicinity of the reception, Minnesota’s pass catchers will be able to create explosive plays at a higher rate, leading to an uptick in the Vikings' total number of scoring opportunities. When the Lions are forced to anchor LBs in coverage, Kyler Murray will be able to take off and run, keeping Minnesota’s offense ahead of the sticks.

On the other side of the field, Minnesota’s heavy use of the blitz will give Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams less time in the open field to create separation, increasing the amount of havoc in Jared Goff’s throws as he weaves the ball through narrow windows. The Vikings' interior pressure will also clog Jahmyr Gibbs' holes in the trenches, leading to minimal gains with each carry.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs. Denver Broncos (-110, BetMGM)

After rivaling the Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans in most defensive metrics last year, the Denver Broncos have harshly regressed, limping into Sunday ranked 27th in rush EPA allowed per play. While the back end has excelled in coverage, the front seven’s inability to stop the run makes it easier for opposing RBs to cut the distance to gain in half, making it difficult to keep the opposition behind the line to gain.

With the Kansas City Chiefs on deck, the Broncos' front seven will have their hands full trying to bottle up Kenneth Walker, who currently leads the position in yards over expected per attempt. When the Broncos are forced to stack the box, Patrick Mahomes' passing lanes on the outside will widen, improving the quality of his throws to help give the Chiefs' offense the versatility it needs to methodically move the ball down the field.