NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 5: Sneaky Shootout Potential in Pittsburgh?

We finally put together a solid week betting on totals. We basically treaded water through the first three weeks, but we went 3-1 in Week 4. Our two unders both cashed comfortably, while the Saints and Falcons went way over their listed total. The only miss was with the Bengals and Jaguars, who didn’t do nearly as much scoring as expected.

Now the focus shifts to Week 5. It’s the first week of the year where byes are in play, with the Panthers and Chiefs both getting the week off. That gives us one fewer opportunity than usual in the betting market.

Points also figure to be at a premium in Week 5. There are two games with massive totals—Lions at Cardinals and Bills at Rams—but the rest of the slate features pretty modest marks. Still, the betting sharps are seeing value on the under in most of these contests.

Let’s dive into four of my favorite totals on the board for Week 5.

Week 5 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Over 54.5

• Best Price: -109; Caesars
• Play To: 55.0

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. So far, the Lions have been an absolute over machine. They’re a perfect 4-0 to the over, with each of their games hitting at least 55 total points. Detroit combines an elite offense with one of the worst defenses in football, which is an excellent formula for a lot of high-scoring affairs.

The Cardinals will get a crack at the Lions this week, and they’re built in the same mold. Their offense is also better than their defense, and they’ve hit at least 60 combined points in back-to-back games.

With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where these teams don’t put points on the scoreboard. You can’t really set the total high enough in Lions’ games at the moment, so I’m going right back to the well this week.

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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Over 44.5

• Best Price: -104; FanDuel
• Play To: 44.5 (-110)

This is another game with some sneaky shootout potential. These are not the same Steelers that we’ve come to know in recent years. Mike Tomlin is gone, and Mike McCarthy has brought a new offense to replace him. Pittsburgh got off to a slow start offensively this season, but they’ve put together 30 and 24 points in the past two weeks.

Defensively, the Steelers aren’t nearly as strong as they’ve been historically. They’re currently 14th in EPA per play, and they’re 29th in that department over the past two weeks. The fact that they allowed 27 points to DeShaun Watson and the Browns stands out as a particular red flag.

Meanwhile, the Colts have struggled defensively all season. They allowed more than 500 yards to the Ravens and Chiefs in back-to-back games before stemming the tide a bit vs. the Texans and Commanders. Still, they’re 31st in the league in yards allowed and 22nd in defensive EPA per play.

Ultimately, I like both teams’ chances of moving the ball in this matchup.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Under 42.0 

• Best Price: -110; Fanatics
• Play To: 40.5

The nightmare season continues for the Chargers. They’re off to an 0-4 start, and the schedule doesn’t get any easier from here. They’ll have to deal with the Broncos this week before matchups against the Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens. It’s an absolutely brutal gauntlet, and the team’s chances of making the playoffs feel all but dead.

The Chargers' biggest issue this season has been the offense. It was supposed to be turbocharged by the addition of Mike McDaniel, but it has instead taken a massive step back. They’re 31st in the league in EPA per play, and they’ve scored the fourth-fewest points per game. It’s hard to imagine things turning around against the Broncos, who remain one of the best defensive teams in football.

On the other side, the Chargers’ defense has actually been respectable. They should be able to slow down the Broncos, who are just 21st in offensive EPA so far this season.

The sharps have been all over the under in this spot, pushing the number down from 44.5 to 41.5 across most of the industry. That said, it’s still probably too high: We have the projected total at just 40.4 in our NFL Game Model.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Under 38.5

• Best Price: -115; DraftKings
• Play To: 37.5

This is one of the lowest totals of the week, but I still think it’s too high. The Titans have been a disaster offensively this season, and the Texans haven’t been much better.

Meanwhile, both of these teams have been respectable defensively. The Texans were arguably the best defense in football last year, and while they haven’t been quite at that level to start this season, they’ve had to face some quality offenses (Bills, Bengals, Colts and Cowboys). This will be their easiest matchup by a mile, so expect to see some positive regression for them.

The Titans' defense isn’t as good as Houston’s, but they’re ninth in points per game and 15th in yards allowed. As long as they can slow down the Texans just a bit, I think this game stays under.