NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 6: Recipe for Fireworks in Vegas?

Following a 3-1 showing in Week 4, we put together our best performance of the year in Week 5. We went a perfect 4-0, cashing overs with Lions-Cardinals and Colts-Steelers and unders with Broncos-Chargers and Texans-Titans.

Now, the focus shifts to Week 6. It’s the smallest slate so far this season, with four teams on bye. That includes the Lions, who have been an absolute over machine for us. It means we’re going to have to look for some new spots for value.

The good news is that we have plenty of resources available to us. In addition to looking at some sharp betting indicators, we also have the Fantasy Life NFL Game Model. It provides a projected spread and total for each contest, which we can compare to the current offers in the market.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Week 6 over/under bets.

Week 6 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons Over 51.5

Best Price: -110; FanDuel
Play To: 52.5

The Bears are back, baby. Caleb Williams is expected to suit up for the first time since Week 2, which obviously gives their offense a pretty massive boost. Don’t forget what they did with Williams under center in Week 1. They racked up 59 points and 552 yards of offense against the Panthers, and Ben Johnson’s preseason claim about wanting to set a new record for points scored didn’t seem that crazy. They took a big step back in Week 2 vs. the Vikings, but that game was against an elite defense in poor weather conditions. That shouldn’t be an issue against the Falcons.

On the other side, the Falcons should have some success against the Bears. Chicago’s defense was torched by Jordan Love and company last week, and Atlanta has moved the ball well since Michael Penix took over at QB. Penix did suffer an injury last week, but he will be able to play through it.

This total has risen considerably since opening, and it’s up to 52.0 at some locations. I still think that’s probably too low, but I’m grabbing the over on 51.5 while I can.

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders Over 53.5

Best Price: -110; DraftKings
Play To: Over 54.5

While we may not have the Lions on the docket this week, the Bills are a pretty close facsimile. Their offense is arguably even better than Detroit’s, while their defense is just as poor. They’re currently first in the league in EPA per play on offense and No. 30 on defense, which is a pretty tough combination to beat for an over.

The Bills are 4-1 to the over so far this season, with all but one game reaching at least 55 total points. Last week’s showdown with the Rams produced 71 points, and two other games have hit at least 67. In other words, these games aren’t just going over for Buffalo; they’re flying way past the mark.

The Bills should hold up their end of the equation on offense, so the big question is whether the Raiders keep up. Their offense hasn’t looked as good the past two weeks, but that was against the Chiefs and Patriots. Both of those defenses are significantly better than Buffalo’s. They should be able to score a few TDs, while the Bills might get to 40 by themselves.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Under 40.5

Best Price: -110; Fanatics
Play To: 40.5 (-120)

It seems as though the Ravens might have Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the second straight week. Lamar Jackson was expected to return, but he’s yet to practice. Typically, players who don’t get in at least a limited session on Friday are ultimately ruled out, though it’s possible that the Ravens make an exception for their star QB.

Regardless of who is under center, I expect a low-scoring affair vs. the Browns. Cleveland’s defense isn’t as elite as it was last year, but it’s still quite good. Specifically, they’re sixth in EPA per pass.

They dip to 21st against the run, but that isn’t a killer for the under. Even if Derrick Henry can keep the chains moving consistently, it should result in longer drives for Baltimore. As long as Cleveland can keep Baltimore from scoring quickly, the under will be in play.

In general, leaning toward the under in divisional matchups is also the right move. It has a 52% win rate over a massive sample since 2005.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Under 41.5

Best Price: -105; DraftKings
Play To: Under 41.5 (-115)

This is another divisional under, and it might be my favorite total of the week. The Chargers are in a must-win situation if they’re going to turn their situation around, and a matchup vs. their biggest rivals could be just what they need.

Their issue hasn’t been on defense. They’re seventh in EPA per play on defense, and they’re sixth against the run specifically. They should be able to slow down Kenneth Walker, and with Rashee Rice expected to miss the game, it’s going to put a lot of responsibility on Patrick Mahomes.

The Chargers’ offense has been their weakness this season. They’ve dealt with a ton of injuries on the offensive line and at receiver, and they’ve struggled to adjust to Mike McDaniel’s new system. It’s hard to imagine things getting much better vs. an above-average Kansas City defense.

Add it all up, and this game reeks of minimal scoring. I think the Chargers can keep this one close, and their best recipe for that is to keep points off the scoreboard.