NHL Bets For May 23 - Best Bets For Oilers Vs. Stars Game 1

After the Panthers took care of business in the Eastern Conference Finals yesterday, today sees the Western Conference side of things get going. The Oilers are fresh off a seven-game series against Vancouver, while the Stars will be better rested after taking care of the Avalanche in six games. Dallas hasn’t played since last Friday (May 17) so the potential for rust does exist and we have seen long layoffs affect teams (negatively) in the playoffs thus far.

Dallas is the better defensive team and has the edge in goal but can the upside of the Oilers offensive stars prevail once again? Let's dive into my best bets for Oilers vs. Stars Game 1.

Best Bets for Oilers vs. Stars Game 1

Oilers at Stars Over 6.0 goals (-110; bet365)

The more I look at the circumstances heading into this series, the more I feel like looking for a high-scoring game out of the gates is the right call. Dallas is dealing with some player injuries/issues as star two-way center Roope Hintz (day-to-day) has yet to be declared 100% healthy and is out for Game 1. Goaltender Jake Oettinger also skipped practice on Wednesday due to an illness but will play in Game 1.

The latter issue with Oettinger is more poor timing than anything but it’s not insignificant. You don’t want to start a series against the best skating team in hockey with your goaltender at less than 100% but that is a scenario the Stars will have to overcome tonight. Dallas was solid against Colorado but they weren’t impenetrable. Oettinger self-destructed in Game 1 against of that series, allowing four goals on just 26 shots and Edmonton is coming in with plenty of momentum having scored seven of their last eight goals at even strength.

Despite Dallas being one of the leaders in limiting high-danger scoring chances the meetings between these two teams often delve into shootouts. Six of the last eight matchups between Dallas and Edmonton have now seen seven or more goals scored. The total has opened at 6.0 and the bets have been about equal on either side (52% to the Over and 48% to the Under, via DraftKings Sportsbook) but the handle on the Over is far bigger.

I rarely use betting splits to dictate a bet but I do side with the “sharp money” in this case. Given Edmonton’s lackluster goaltending and the fact they have a nearly unstoppable power play (Dallas’s penalty-kill is at a terrible 69% efficiency rate in the playoffs), I give the edge to the over today. It’s still available at -110 at some books, although I would play this up to -120 at the current 6.0 total. The offenses should win out to start this series, although I would expect the defense and goaltending to get tighter as the series progresses.

Jason Robertson Anytime Goal (+225; DraftKings)

If we like this series to potentially start with the offenses winning out then it makes perfect sense to look at the anytime goal markets today as well. Jason Robertson is coming off a series vs. the Avalanche where he managed seven points in six games but also landed zero goals. The seven-assist effort showcased the well-roundedness of his game and Robertson remains at the core of the Stars attack.

It’s true Robertson did shoot the puck less this season than last (231 vs 313) and his goal production dipped as a result (29 vs 46). At the same time, this is a player I fully expect the Stars will need to carry them at some point in this series if they are going to get past an offensive dynamo like Edmonton. Robertson was also far more efficient and busy as a shooter in the first series against Vegas (where he scored in each of the first two games) and with the added significance of now being one round away from the Stanley Cup Finals it makes sense that he’d come out in Game 1 and perhaps show a little more aggressiveness with the puck.

Either way, with his price having now moved into +225 territory and a weaker goaltender in Stuart Skinner on the other side, he’s essentially in must-play territory for me today. If they rerate his odds for Game 2 we can reevaluate but he’s a player I have pegged for a big series and love the bigger number on him for a Game 1 goal.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 Power-Play points (+190; DraftKings)

The Oilers power play is operating at a 37.5% efficiency clip in these playoffs. Just to give you an idea of how good that is, Colorado was the only other playoff team from this season that posted an efficiency rating above 30%, while the third-ranked Rangers sit at 29.7%.

The Stars' one Achilles heel this playoffs has been their penalty kill, which is likely to be an area the Oilers will attempt to exploit in Game 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can often go overlooked just given how good Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are, but he’s an integral special teams ace for Edmonton who sees massive minutes on the first-line power-play. Nugent-Hopkins enters this game with 16 points in 12 playoff games to date but has amassed seven of those points on the power play. In total, he’s landed a power play point in six of 12 games and now gets another softer penalty kill to help exploit in Round 3.

Again, with Dallas hurting a little and without one of their best penalty-killers in Hintz, being bullish on these Oiler player props makes sense to me. His current odds to go over 0.5 power-play points sits at +190, which gives us a 34% implied probability. Even if his current hit rate is unsustainable I think the circumstances of a potentially explosive game tonight make this a good value and one worth exploiting for our Game 1 bets.

Underdog NHL Pick’em for Thursday

• 3-way, 11.8x Multiplier

Let’s build on the thesis above for our Underdog play for today. Both Robertson and McDavid feel like two players well overdue for some natural positive regression on the scoresheet.

I discussed Robertson above but the Canucks did a solid job of holding McDavid to the peripheral in the last series as he only managed five shots on net over the final three games. It’s hard to see that kind of low volume from McDavid last much longer.

Since we can’t correlate McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins power-play points on Underdog, I like the idea of trying to correlate them with a McDavid goal instead. Nugent-Hopkins has played on McDavid’s wing at even strength most of the playoffs and should again tonight. Given how much ice they see together there is a great chance that any McDavid goal ends up also coming with an RNH assist as well.

Ultimately, I think this kind of Pick’em lineup sets up well for Game 1 and gives a nice way to play for more upside if Game 1 does end up being higher scoring.