NHL Bets Today - Top Picks For April 16
We only have a few more slates left in the NHL before the playoffs hit. Tonight will decide the fate of numerous teams in the Eastern Conference with the Capitals being able to close out the Red Wings, Penguins, and Flyers with a win (over the Flyers whom they face in Philadelphia).
Despite the playoffs being the main focus, there are a ton of other things going on with regular season milestones (aka player props) and division title races that we need to be akin to for betting.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this slate and see where the best opportunities are for this Tuesday.
NHL Bets Today - April 16
Bruins win in regulation (-125; bet365)
Just like last night with the Rangers, I think it’s an excellent idea to take advantage of this generous 60-minute line on the Bruins tonight. Boston plays the Senators (who were our victims against New York yesterday), a team that has already played their last home game and limp into tonight on no rest after getting shut out by the Rangers. Ottawa is already without forward Josh Norris and likely to be without centre Tim Stutzle again as well.
The Bruins offense has been slowed a bit the last couple of games and was shut out on the road in their last start against the Capitals, but don’t expect them to go scoreless tonight. Boston has netted the tenth most goals in the league at home this season and has a 24-10-6 record in Boston. They’ve also dominated the series against Ottawa going 9-1 straight up against the Senators the last 10 times these teams have met in Boston, with all nine of those wins coming in regulation.
Ottawa has nothing to play for and now faces a team in the Bruins who can close out the division title tonight with a victory – and who will be focused on getting their top offensive players some momentum before the playoffs. We could go bigger in this spot and look to the puckline (-1.5; +115) but as long as this 60-min line stays under -140 I also like the extra cushion we get simply by backing the Bruins to win in regulation.
David Pastrnak anytime goal (-110; DraftKings)
Just like last night, I am also not against double dipping with Boston and looking to back some of their stars in the anytime goal market. David Pastrnak has been stuck at 47 goals for four straight games and certainly would love to find the net at least one more time before the playoffs. As you would expect, the Bruins forward has owned the Senators over his career, landing 17 goals in 27 games against Ottawa, a mark that includes a hat trick against Ottawa this March.
With Pastrnak three goals away from the elusive 50-goal mark (which he hit last season for the first time in his career) there is certainly some appeal to backing him for multiple goals tonight as well (he’s +1600 on bet365 to score a hat trick). However, I am mainly interested in taking advantage of the divergence in odds for his anytime goal prop. He’s as high as -140 at some sportsbooks but can still be had at -110 at DraftKings, which seems like a great deal given the opponent and circumstances.
Maple Leafs moneyline (+136; FanDuel)
The Leafs take on the Panthers today who could still take down the Atlantic division with a win tonight and a Boston loss. However, the reward for Florida winning the division would be a first-round showdown with state rival Tampa Bay, and all things considered that is a matchup they would likely rather avoid. The Panthers are also somewhat banged up and may be in a spot to rest some key players. Aaron Ekblad will miss this game (but should be ready for game one of the playoffs) and they’ll also be down another key defensive cog in Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
I simply don’t see the motivation for Florida to show up in this game and if we’re reading the tea leaves, I’m not sure their coach does either. Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe both look set to play but are coming off injuries and undoubtedly will not come anywhere near their ceiling in ice time.
On the other side, you also have a more motivated Leafs team who have two games left and a big milestone they will likely be focused on tonight for their star centre (see below). Toronto’s offense has been rolling of late with 21 goals over their last four games and if they do get ahead the short-handed Panthers may not have the motivation to fight for the comeback win. With the line on Toronto having moved up to +136 on the Barkov news I like taking a shot with the road Leafs who would love to grab a late-season win over their most likely first-round opponent.
Auston Matthews anytime goal (-110; bet365)
I’m in the market for more narratives and milestone chasing tonight and what better player to chase than NHL Rocket Richard winner Auston Matthews. Matthews enters this game with 69 goals on the season and while the comedians among us would probably rather see him end the season on that total the fact of the matter is that both Matthews and his team will be focused tonight on ensuring their star forward becomes the first 70-goal scorer in the league since 1992-93 – when Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny each netted 76 goals.
The Panthers would be a better opponent had they decided to sit ace two-way centre Sasha Barkov, but I’m also not convinced Barkov plays his usual load or even shadows Matthews in this game. The fact is, there is good divergence in Matthews’ goal props tonight (just like there is with Pastrnak) with him available at -110 on bet365, while being as short as -140 on DraftKings. That makes it a good time to go line shopping and back the center to hit this historic milestone.
Canucks win in regulation (-125; bet365)
I’ll go back to betting favorites with something to play for our last moneyline pick of the day. The Canucks enter this game with a three-point lead in the Pacific over Edmonton, with both teams having two games left to play. They can close out the division today with a win and while I have advocated actively fading them down the stretch most signs tonight point to a Vancouver win.
The Canucks will be getting starter Thatcher Demko back in net tonight and while rust could be a factor, a rusty Demko is still a better than the Flames options of Jacob Markstrom and Dustin Wolf, who have both been below-average down the stretch. The Flames also don’t have a ton of depth up front and have been giving lots of ice time recently to rookies like Connor Zary. While Zary has had some success against weaker teams the Canucks will be throwing three deep lines at Calgary anchored by centres Elias Pettersson, JT Miller, and Elias Lindholm and it’s likely the trio overwhelm the Flames' younger forward crew at some point.
Vancouver has also been stellar at home all season while the Flames bring a losing road record into this game – and struggled against Vancouver’s depth the last time these teams in March. All things considered, the price looks more than fair to back the home favorites who perhaps aren’t getting enough respect in the odds given the division title is on the line and they have multiple key players returning for this game.
Andrei Svechnikov anytime goal (+210; DraftKings)
Let’s add one more goal prop to the mix for today. The Hurricanes finish out their regular season tonight against the Blue Jackets and while the team doesn’t have anything to play for (they are locked into a matchup with the Islanders in the first round) they do have some personal milestones that are worth targeting.
Winger Andrei Svechnikov (who missed the start of the season after recovering from a brutal knee injury) needs only one goal tonight to hit the 20-goal mark, something he’s achieved in all but one season to date. Svechnikov has taken some time to get up to speed this season but has also looked terrific down the stretch landing six points in his final four games.
On top of the milestone motivation, Svechnikov will also be up against a Blue Jackets team that has allowed the fourth-most high-danger scoring chances and has now allowed four or more goals in five of their last six games.
With Svechnikov’s goal prop as high as +210 tonight on DraftKings he makes for a solid way to capitalize on this matchup and get exposure to the Hurricanes dynamic offense.
Underdog NHL Pick’em (3-way; 10.5x multiplier)
No fooling around today on Underdog as I am simply using the three-goal props I mentioned from up above.
Both Pastrnak and Matthews HIGHERs can be used with regular payout multipliers on Underdog (and as a two-way play they be combined for a 3x multiplier) which makes them a good deal since they are both as low as -140 at some sportsbooks to score.
Auston Matthews HIGHER 0.5 goals
See above…
David Pastrnak HIGHER 0.5 goals
See above…
Andrei Svechnikov HIGHER 0.5 goals (Scorcher)
See above…
