Patriots vs. Bears Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 7

With Caleb Williams back on the field, the hype surrounding the Chicago Bears has skyrocketed, putting the team firmly in the mix for the playoffs. Standing in the Bears' way this week are the New England Patriots, a contender on the rise with Drake Maye firing on all cylinders after a slow start to the year.

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Betting Odds For Week 7

Spread: Bears -3 (-105, FanDuel)
Moneyline: Bears (-154, FanDuel)
Game Total: 49.5 (Over -115/Under -105, theScore Bet)

While the Bears were able to go 2-1 during Williams' absence, the loss to the Green Bay Packers proved the offense lacked the versatility that it needed to compete when the quality of the opponent ramped up. With the former 1.01 pick back in the fold, the Bears' passing attack has elevated, leaping into the top 15 in dropback EPA per play.

On the other side of the field, Maye has been able to break out of his slump and lead the Patriots to three straight wins. Maye is also accompanied by A.J. Brown now that he is back from injury, giving the Patriots' QB1 a reliable pass catcher to lean on.

With the two teams power-rated equal to each other, home-field advantage propels the Bears up to a flat -3 with early money flooding in on the Patriots. Oddsmakers also believe we are in for a high-scoring thriller, listing the total at 49.5 with some sportsbooks already touching 50.5.

Prediction & Pick For New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Week 7 Matchup

The Pick: Patriots +3 (-109, BetRivers)

Even though Brown was held to just three receptions for 27 yards in the Patriots' win over the New York Jets, the Patriots' future looks bright with the star WR pulling defensive attention away from Maye’s supporting cast. With the offense at full strength, the Patriots are efficient, ranking in the top 10 in DVOA.

Heading into Thursday night’s contest against the Bears, Maye will be able to establish a connection with Brown by picking apart a secondary that has trickled down to 14th in dropback EPA allowed per play while dealing with injuries. When the Bears are forced to shade a LB toward Brown, DeMario Douglas will have more room in the middle to exploit, widening Maye’s passing lanes at multiple levels of the field.

On the other side of the field, negative regression is looming large over Williams, with the Patriots' defensive line capable of stuffing the run per above league-average marks in rush EPA allowed per play and in success rate, making it easier for the LBs to anchor in coverage to help cover more ground on the back end. With more bodies spread across the middle, Williams will be forced to weave the ball through tight windows, increasing the amount of havoc in his throws.

With Maye setting a scoring pace too fast for the Bears to keep up with, place a wager on the Patriots to cover the spread at no lower than the key number of +3. If the number steams down to +2.5, pair the Patriots with the Packers in a two-team six-point teaser.

Best Player Prop Bet For New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears

Rhamondre Stevenson - o43.5 Rushing Yards (-111, DraftKings)

With TreVeyon Henderson nipping at his heels, Rhamondre Stevenson needs to quickly round back into form or else risk falling down the depth chart. While his current average of 3.7 yards per carry looks underwhelming at first glance, it is worth noting Stevenson has been efficient with his attempts, ranking in the top half of the board in yards over expected per attempt.

Fortunately for Stevenson, he will have a great opportunity to hit the ground running against the Bears by consistently gashing a front seven that resides in the bottom 10 in rush EPA allowed per play and in success rate. Maye’s resurgence under center will also force the Bears to stretch out the second level, improving Stevenson’s probability of creating an explosive play once he bursts through the trenches.