Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 2

Even with Cooper Rush under center, the Pittsburgh Steelers were unable to pull away from Atlanta, squeaking past the Falcons 20-13. With the injury-riddled New England Patriots still fielding a more productive offense than the lowly Falcons, the Steelers will need to continue to lean on their defense just to stay afloat.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds For Week 2

Spread: Patriots -5.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Moneyline: Patriots (-225, theScore Bet)
Game Total: 41.7 (Over -113/Under -107, Caesars)

In the twilight years of his career, Aaron Rodgers has fallen off a cliff, ranking near dead last in QB EPA per play and success rate. His struggles in the pocket lower the Steelers' ceiling on offense, dragging them down to 19th in offensive DVOA.

Unless Rodgers is able to turn back the clock, the Steelers will need to continue to be exceptional on defense in order to be competitive. Even though a win over Rush and the Falcons is hardly anything to hang their hat on, it was still impressive to see the secondary hold the backup QB to a completion percentage of 55% while picking him off twice.

While Drake Maye is a sizable upgrade at the position, negative regression is rearing its ugly head over the Patriots after A.J. Brown went down with an injury. With no true WR1 stretching out the field, the Steelers will be able to hold their own in coverage and create disruptions at a high rate.

Prediction & Pick For Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Week 2 Matchup

The Pick: u41.5 (-107, Caesars)

Not only is Rodgers a shell of his former self, but the underwhelming protection he receives from his offensive line forces him to combat pressure while lacking the running ability that is needed to scramble out of the pocket. When under duress, the quality of his throws plummets, making it difficult for his pass catchers to haul in a contested catch.

Jaylen Warren’s inconsistencies in the backfield make the team overly reliant on Rodgers' arm to sustain drives down the field, hovering in the bottom half of the board in rate of carries exceeding expected yards. By struggling to fight past contact in the trenches, the Patriots can drop their LBs in coverage and smother Rodgers' passing lanes.

On the other side of the field, Rhamondre Stevenson was abysmal in the Patriots' season opener, ranking dead last in yards over expected per attempt among all qualified RBs. While the Steelers are a step down in quality of defense, their defense still stuffs the run at a high rate, fielding a front seven that ranks above league average in defensive rush EPA.

With Stevenson bottled up in the backfield, the Steelers will also be able to stretch out the second level and keep a body near the point of contact for the full duration of the contest. This will increase the amount of havoc in Maye’s throws, making the Patriots prone to stalling out before they are able to get into scoring position. Expect a low-scoring affair to take place, keeping the total under 41.5.

Best Player Prop Bet For Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

Aaron Rodgers | Longest Completion u36.5 Yards (-115, bet365)

Turning our sights back towards Rodgers, it’s worth mentioning he was able to throw vertically down the field in the Steelers' season opener against Atlanta, averaging 10.5 air yards per reception. That was a stunning turnaround from last year’s performance, where he ranked 36th out of 36 qualified QBs with an average of 3.3.

With that said, temper your expectations on Rodgers being able to air out the ball against the Patriots, especially when forced to get the ball out of his hands quickly after the snap while under pressure. Not only does this give his pass catchers less time in the open field to go through their routes, but they will also need to fight off contact shortly after the catch in order to create an explosive play.