Steelers vs Browns Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 4
Betting

Steelers vs Browns Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 4

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Browns from a betting perspective, including picks, predictions, and a player prop.

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Don’t look now, but the Cleveland Browns are 2-1 after squeaking past the Carolina Panthers 21-18, sitting just four games back from the preseason win total. With the Pittsburgh Steelers matching the Browns' hot start, Thursday night’s divisional matchup will give the winner the edge in the AFC North, improving the probability of making the playoffs in the process.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Betting Odds For Week 4

  • Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-120, FanDuel)
  • Moneyline: Steelers (-148, BetRivers)
  • Game Total: 38.5 (Over -110/Under -109, Caesars)

With question marks looming over the offense, the Cleveland Browns were projected to finish near the bottom of the overall standings while looking ahead to next year’s stacked class of QBs. Deshaun Watson has had other ideas, leading the Browns to a successful start to the year while climbing into the top 20 in EPA per play for the position.

While Watson has been able to play at a competitive level, Aaron Rodgers is losing his fight against Father Time, handicapping the Steelers' ceiling on offense. Rodgers' inability to ward off pressure makes him vulnerable to getting trapped in the pocket, increasing the amount of havoc in his throws, which stalls out the offense.

With Rodgers holding Pittsburgh back with his sporadic play under center, oddsmakers believe Cleveland has a puncher's chance at securing the upset, listing the Browns at +2.5. Bettors are also in agreement that Thursday night’s divisional matchup will be a defensive slugfest, steaming the under down from 40.5 to 38.5.

Prediction & Pick For Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns Week 4 Matchup

  • The Pick: Steelers Team Total u20.5 (-124, Caesars)

Time and time again, we see future Hall-of-Famers lose the fight to Father Time, playing at a far lower level than we have been accustomed to after years of brilliance. Rodgers is no exception, plummeting to the bottom of the board in QB EPA per play, CPOE, and success rate.

Rodgers' regression has made it difficult for the Steelers to play at a competitive level, captaining an offense that ranks 30th in dropback EPA per play. Even with Jaylen Warren giving the Steelers the production they need to help pull defensive attention to the middle, Rodgers has been unable to take advantage of the extra space on the outside, leading to a high volume of early outs.

A matchup against the Browns in a shortened week will do Rodgers no favors in his efforts to turn back the clock, battling it out against a secondary that thrives in coverage, per top-12 marks in defensive dropback EPA and success rate. With a defender expected to be near the point of contact, the Browns will be able to create disruptions at a high rate and hold the Steelers comfortably behind the sticks.

Rodgers' inability to stretch out the secondary will also allow the Browns to shade more towards the middle, making it easier to stuff the run and hold Warren behind the line of scrimmage. With no clear path for success, the Steelers will be vulnerable to stalling out, keeping them out of scoring position and under the team total.

Best Player Prop Bet For Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

Aaron Rodgers - Longest Completion u34.5 Yards (-120, DraftKings)

Since the start of the regular season, Rodgers has been unable to establish a connection with DK Metcalf while Michael Pittman is in and out of the lineup, resulting in a total of two explosive plays in three games. Pittman has been responsible for both big gains, while Metcalf is averaging just 8.6 yards per reception.

With the interior of the Steelers' offensive line ranking below league average in true pass set grade, the Browns will be able to flush Rodgers to the outside, forcing the Steelers' QB to either extend the play with his legs or throw on the run, both leading to disastrous results. Barring a busted coverage, expect Rodgers to continue to rely on conservative throws for minimal gains, keeping him under the total on his longest completion prop.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Aaron Rodgers
    AaronRodgers
    QBPITPIT
    PPG
    13.7
    Proj
    13.2

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