Super Bowl 58 Betting Breakdown. Same-Game Parlays for Chief vs. 49ers.
The Super Bowl truly offers something for everyone. There’s the game itself, the halftime show, the commercials, the snacks; my two sisters hate football, but they love stuffing their faces with mini hot dogs and nachos during the Super Bowl. The fact that we all have to get up and go to work the following Monday is downright un-American.
You know what else everyone loves? Getting a little action down on the Super Bowl.
You can go with Super Bowl boxes and traditional bets, but you haven’t really lived until you’ve placed a 10-leg SGP. Almost every sportsbook is going to offer some sort of SGP promotion for Super Bowl LVIII, so we should be taking advantage.
If a sportsbook is going to offer you a bet credit if your SGP loses, you’re leaving money on the table by not sprinkling a couple of dollars on each of them.
Let’s explore a few of the different avenues you can take with your Chiefs-49ers SGPs.
The “Ground Control” SGP (+1150; BetMGM)
- 49ers ML
- Under 47.5
- Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown
- McCaffrey Over 94.5 rushing yards
- Isiah Pacheco Over 64.5 rushing yards
This is my personal favorite “reasonable” SGP. There really hasn’t been a ton of movement on this side in this matchup, with the 49ers opening as roughly -2.5 and settling at around -2.0. The Chiefs have the edge in public support—70% of the bets have sided with the underdogs (per the Action Network)—but there has been more sharp action on the 49ers.
That’s the side that I prefer. The 49ers have struggled a bit during the postseason, but they were far superior to the Chiefs during the regular season. They were nearly unbeatable at full strength, posting a 12-1 record in games where Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and McCaffrey were fully available. They haven’t met those standards for most of the postseason, but they did in their furious second-half comeback against the Lions.
January 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) runs against Green Bay Packers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell (59) and linebacker Quay Walker (7) during the second quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The Chiefs have clearly elevated their game, particularly on offense, but their path to the Super Bowl has been easier than it looked on paper. The Dolphins were dealing with tons of injuries and unfavorable weather conditions, while the Bills’ defense had numerous injuries in their back seven. The win over the Ravens was the best of the bunch, but that victory was propelled by the defense. I’m not sure if they can shut down San Francisco the same way they did Baltimore.
Personally, I see both of these teams having more success on the ground than through the air. The Chiefs’ poor run defense is a known commodity. They were third in dropback EPA defensively during the regular season, but they were 28th against the run. I have no idea why the Ravens didn’t try to exploit the Chiefs on the ground in the AFC Championship, but don’t expect Kyle Shanahan to make the same mistake. McCaffrey should be busy and productive in this spot.
The 49ers’ run defense doesn’t have the same reputation, but they’ve been nearly as bad. They were merely 26th in rushing EPA defensively, and they’ve surrendered big games to the Packers' and Lions' runners in the first two games of the postseason. Specifically, the Lions averaged 6.2 yards before contact in the first half of the NFC Championship. The Chiefs are still a pass-first team, but they’ve been more willing to let Pacheco carry the load at times this season.
If both teams are leaning on the run game, it makes sense to pair it with an under for the game. Running the ball keeps the clock moving, and even a successful run game is typically less efficient than throwing the ball. Overall, points should be at a premium in that game script.
If you wanted to make this a little juicier, you could also consider adding a Pacheco anytime touchdown. That said, this feels like a very reasonable outcome for a +1150 potential payout.
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The “For the Swifties” SGP (+1796; FanDuel)
- Chiefs ML
- Over 47.5
- Travis Kelce 2+ touchdowns
- Kelce 70+ receiving yards
- Patrick Mahomes 250+ passing yards
The first SGP I listed might be how I see the game playing out, but it’s far from the only scenario. It certainly would not be a surprise if the Chiefs continued to flaunt their offensive superiority during the Super Bowl. Their full-season numbers were disappointing—11th in EPA/play, 15th in points per game—but it’s possible they’ve flipped a switch during the playoffs. Perhaps they were just playing possum during the regular season in a very easy division.
One of the biggest developments for the Chiefs has been the eruption of Kelce. He was in a bit of a slump during the regular season, but his playoff numbers are downright historic. You don’t get to more career playoff catches than Jerry Rice without being extremely productive for a long time.
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) against the Buffalo Bills in the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Kelce has historically done some of his best work in the redzone. He had two touchdowns in the Divisional Round vs. the Bills, and he added another score vs. the Ravens. Ultimately, Kelce has scored at least once in 14 of his last 18 postseason contests, and he’s scored multiple times in four of them. Going with at least two touchdowns instead of one is definitely risky, but I’m willing to take a shot at a bigger payout.
70+ yards should also be a pretty easy threshold for him to clear. He’s done it in all three postseason games this season and 12 straight playoff games overall. The last time he didn’t get to 70 yards was the 2019-20 Super Bowl against the 49ers, and that defense was significantly different than it is now.
Pairing Kelce’s props with Mahomes is an obvious correlation to take advantage of. Like Kelce, Mahomes has frequently eclipsed 250 passing yards during the postseason, doing it in 13 of 17 playoff contests.
This SGP is the perfect option for those who want to dive headfirst into the Taylor Swift madness that is sure to dominate the Super Bowl coverage. Stop hating and start embracing.
You can tail the Swift-themed SGP at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!
The “You Can’t Win if You Don’t Buy a Ticket” SGP (+19671; FanDuel)
- Over 47.5
- Christian McCaffrey first touchdown
- Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
- Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown
- Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- McCaffrey Over 130.5 rushing + receiving yards
- Pacheco Over 67.5 rushing yards
Alright, are we ready to get wild? The first two SGPs have been somewhat responsible, but I understand that’s not for everyone. Some people want to get down just a few bucks and try to hit it big, so I’m including a lottery ticket SGP as well. Remember, if you are going to bet something like this, make sure to do it on a site that is offering some sort of SGP promotion. If you can get down $5 and get a $5 free bet back if it loses, why not take a home run swing?
We’re going with five separate touchdown props here: McCaffrey first score, Pacheco, Kelce, and Deebo Samuel anytime touchdowns, and Mahomes over 1.5 passing scores. That’s going to require a bunch of scoring, so those provide a pretty clear correlation with the over.
The McCaffrey first score is the biggest hurdle. However, the 49ers scored first in 77.7% of their games this season, and McCaffrey is obviously their biggest touchdown threat. He had 21 total scores during the regular season, while the rest of the team had just 39 combined.
Pacheco, Kelce, and Samuel have all scored during the postseason, and they’re prolific TD scorers as well. Samuel had 12 during the regular season, while Pacheco was the Chiefs’ leader with nine. Kelce wasn’t quite as good, but he’s been utilized way more heavily during the playoffs.
It also stands to reason that Mahomes can throw at least two touchdowns if the game goes over 47.5. He’s only thrown for multiple touchdowns in one of three postseason games this season, but he’s still averaged 2.29 passing scores in his 17 postseason contests.
Finally, I’m bringing back the Pacheco rushing over—one of my favorite props overall—and pairing it with Over 130.5 scrimmage yards for McCaffrey. The result is a potential payout of nearly 200-1, making it a solid option for those looking to risk a little to try to win a lot.