
Week 1 College Football Parlays: SMU, Auburn, and More
As Week 1 of the college football season kicks off, Kody Malstrom shares his three favorite parlays to get in on the action this weekend.
After being handicapped to a small helping of games in Week 0, Week 1's massive slate of college football games gives us access to more markets, providing us a variety of ways to build our parlays. Below is a breakdown of three of my favorite parlays heading into the weekend, including a pair of favorites who catch their opponents in the midst of a decline, putting them in a favorable position to win.
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College Football Parlays for Week 1
Remember, in order for you to win your parlay, every leg must cash or your bet will be graded as a loss.
Auburn ML/SMU ML (+125, Caesars)
Even though I normally try to avoid backing teams going through an overhaul early on in the year, bringing in Byrum Brown will help give Auburn’s offense some stability, patching a group who ranked outside the top 100 in Pass Play EPA. His elite running ability will also help scramble their opponents' back end, creating more space on the outside for his wideouts to exploit.
Against Baylor, Brown will be able to get off to a hot start by relentlessly attacking a defense that struggles to create early outs, residing near the bottom of the board in Def Success Rate. This is especially true considering the Bears' secondary failing to take advantage of the shortened field when they are backed up into the red zone, hovering in the bottom fifteen in Finishing Drives.
Speaking of Success Rate, Florida State’s underwhelming performance against New Mexico State was alarming, and they now have to face off against a much stiffer defense with SMU fielding a group that excels at keeping their opponents in front of the sticks. Expect the Mustangs to stall out the Seminoles' drives at a high rate, giving their own offense more opportunities to pull away on the scoreboard.
Penn State Alt -20.5/Memphis Alt -6.5 (+133, DraftKings)
While it remains to be seen how Rocco Becht will fare in a much tougher conference, the former Iowa State QB will at least be able to get into a groove in their season opener by picking apart a Marshall defense that ranked near dead last in Pass Explosiveness. With the Thundering Herd lacking the big play ability to match their output, expect Penn State to get out to a sizable lead to help cover the lofty spread.
Fresh off of an impressive performance, the Memphis Tigers front seven will be able to build on their momentum against Arkansas State by neutralizing an offense that ranked well below league average in Havoc Allowed. When pressured, Trey Owens will be forced to make plays with his legs, lowering the quality of his throws.
Louisville ML/Tulane ML (+1052, DraftKings)
With Lane Kiffin gone, Ole Miss is expected to take a step back on offense, opening up the door for Louisville to generate the upset. Their defense is more than capable of slowing down Trinidad Chambliss, with Louisville bringing back a majority of last year’s group that sat in the top half of the board in Def Pass Success Rate, Rush Play Explosiveness, and Hard Stops.
Like the Rebels, Duke is also expected to regress with Walker Eget filling in for Darian Mensah, a transfer from San Jose State who struggles to connect with his WRs, completing less than 60% of his passes throughout his career. Eget’s inconsistencies are poised to persist against Tulane, battling it out against a defense that finished last season 13th in Def Pass Explosiveness.
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