This game has a lot of meaning for both teams. The Bears may be out of the playoff hunt, but the handful of games they have left will be of utmost importance for them in elevating whether or not Justin Fields is their QB of the future. 

For the 6-5 Vikings, the loss by Detroit over Thanksgiving has now opened up an opportunity for them to get back in the division title race, especially since they have two games with Detroit left on the schedule (Week 16 and 18). However, they will first need to get past this somewhat tricky primetime spot for those games to mean something. A loss by the Vikings would also leave them with the same number of losses as Green Bay, who trail them by one game in the Wild Card race. 

So, can Minnesota hold off the Bears? Or will Justin Fields and DJ Moore pull a Walter White and Jessie Pinkman and cook up something special on the road?

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

  • Spread: Vikings -3.0 (-105; BetMGM)
  • Total: 44.0
  • Moneylines: Bears +115 / -150

The Bears defense took a step back last week against Detroit, allowing 31 points in a late collapse. However, that wasn’t entirely their fault, as turnovers by the offense put the defense behind the 8-ball. 

Overall, Chicago picked off Jared Goff three times and limited big plays, allowing just 6.74 yards per attempt. They’ve had some poor moments this season, but the Bears defense has been stellar in the trenches and has a talented corner in Jaylon Johnson, who is a tough matchup for any team’s top WR.

JJ

Oct 22, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears defensive back Jaylon Johnson (33) steps in front of Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) to intercept a pass before returning the ball for a touchdown in the fourth quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports


This week, they’ll face a Vikings team that has been more methodical with Joshua Dobbs under center and lacks the rushing prowess of Detroit. Minnesota ranks just 27th in yards per rush and should be an easier matchup for Chicago’s league-leading run stuffers, who allow just 3.4 yards per carry. 

Minnesota may still be able to excel in this spot if they decide to deploy RB Ty Chandler with a little more regularity this week – and after last week, there is a decent chance that they will. 

Chandler ripped off an impressive 7.3 yards per carry against Denver (on 10 carries) and brings a speed element (4.38 40-yard dash) that Alexander Mattison simply does not possess. The Bears struggled with Jahmyr Gibbs last week, allowing him to go for 9.9 yards per catch (6-59), and he played a vital role in Detroit's comeback. If Minnesota doesn’t have Justin Jefferson for this game (questionable) – and all signs point to him sitting right now – then Chandler could be a wildcard they lean on to provide some big plays. 

As for Chicago, Fields giveth (18 carries, 104 yards rushing) and Fields taketh away (sack fumble for a safety). Fields was excellent against Detroit for most of the game, but a couple of late sacks were instrumental in the Bears' loss. 

He and DJ Moore will face a Vikings team that loves to blitz and has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing WRs. Fields racked up 47 yards rushing in the first game against Minnesota (in less than half, before he injured his thumb) and is in a spot to put up some big fantasy numbers once again. 

The Bears have also been better of late, going 2-1 ATS over the last three games that Fields has started and finished. Minnesota has been very profitable for bettors, going 7-3-1 ATS this year but just 2-3 ATS at home.


Best Bet: Bears +3.0 (-115; BetMGM)

The one caveat to making this bet would be if Jefferson were to suit up, but all signs point to him sitting one more week.

The Bears have been far more competitive of late with Fields under center. In the last three games he’s started and finished, their only non-cover was in Week 4 against Denver – a game they were up 28-0 and lost 31-28. Like they did against Detroit and Washington, Fields and Moore should present issues for a Vikings secondary that has allowed far more explosive plays via the pass than the run.

Chicago certainly has had trouble holding leads, but their defense has been stellar at guarding against the run and should be able to contain Joshua Dobbs. If they can, forcing Dobbs to throw should work in their favor. Dobbs has been solid this year but only managed 6.9 yards per attempt against Denver and faces an emerging Bears secondary, whose mostly dominant work against Jared Goff last week went largely unnoticed due to the Lions' heroic comeback win. 

I grabbed this line at +3.5 earlier in the week in our FREE Bet Tracker, and even at +3.0, the Bears are still enticing – again, assuming the Vikings are without Jefferson for one more week.

You can tail the Bears at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!


Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Justin Fields Over 196.5 passing yards (-110; Bet365)

This one is admittedly close if you go by our site projections, but I think they’re being somewhat conservative. Fields’ up-and-down production means his prop totals for passing will rarely approach the higher end of his range, and this week, he faces a Minnesota defense that skews towards being a better run-stopping unit. They will also likely be focused on limiting Fields’ explosive runs, given what he did to Detroit last week in that area.

Fields

Nov 19, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs with the ball against the Detroit Lions during the second half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports


The last five teams facing the Vikings have all thrown for 220+ yards, and Fields threw for over 200 yards against Minnesota last year despite Moore still being in Carolina.

You can tail the Fields over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $1 or more!

Ty Chandler Over 9.5 receiving yards (-110; Unibet)

Our projections aren’t that high on Chandler this week either, but they’re being cautious until we see how the split between Chandler and Mattison works out. My opinion is simple: With what Alexander Mattison has shown this year (a propensity to fumble and not score TDs) and what Ty Chandler showed last week (four receptions, 37 yards, and 7.3 yards per carry), the Vikings aren’t in a place to dial back his snaps anytime soon. 

Further, even if Chandler does get limited to relief or tempo snaps, he’s still been able to clear double-digit receiving yards on one reception multiple times. The Bears are also terrible at guarding against RBs in coverage and have allowed the most receiving yards to the position this season.

Joshua Dobbs under 36.5 rushing yards (-110; DraftKings)

Matthew Freedman put this one in the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker earlier in the week. Dobbs is projected for just 29.0 rush yards in our aggregate projections and faces a Bears defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest rush yards to opposing QBs this season. 

Chicago should be keyed in on Dobbs as well, especially if Jefferson is sidelined as expected. They have solid corners they can leave in man if they have to and likely understand by this point that Dobbs is far more dangerous as a runner than a passer.


Ladder Bet: DJ Moore receiving yards 80+ (+175) | 100+ (+360) | 120+ (+750; DraftKings)

This one requires little to no explanation. The Vikings are a clear pass funnel. They don’t allow as many big plays in the secondary as other weaker pass coverages do, but on the season, they have allowed 31 passing plays of 20+ yards (compared to just 13 explosive rushing plays).

Moore has been targeted relentlessly with Fields healthy this season, seeing target shares of 43%, 45%, and 30% in their last three full games. In those contests, he’s gone for 90+ yards on every occasion. You could certainly play conservatively and just take the over on Moore’s 61.5 receiving total, but with solid odds at the higher ranges, he’s also an ideal ladder candidate.


Same Game Parlay (+3400; DraftKings)

  • Bears Moneyline
  • Fields Over 196.5 passing yards
  • Moore anytime TD
  • Moore 80+ receiving yards
  • Chandler Over 10.5 receiving yards
  • Dobbs Under 36.5 rushing yards

The thesis here is simple. If the Bears win, it’s likely due to Justin Fields and DJ Moore connecting for a big day and their somewhat flimsy (but improved) defense holding on at the end. 

Against weaker defenses like Washington, Denver, and Detroit, Fields and Moore have had a ton of success (five combined TDs across those three games). Minnesota may be a step up compared to those units, but their weakness in the secondary means the duo is likely to find some kind of success once again. I’d also worry that the Vikings won’t be able to rely on Dobbs to pick up cheap yardage for them as he has in past weeks, which could tilt the scales enough for the Bears to finally pull one out. 

The Bears played a conference leader close last week, and, from a luck perspective, they are overdue to pull out a win in one of these close conference games. A same-game parlay that follows a similar formula to how the Bears' recent games with Fields under center have gone makes a ton of sense this week. 

SGP

You can tail the six-leg parlay at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of at least $5!

MNF Betting Breakdown
Geoff Ulrich
Geoff Ulrich
Geoff Ulrich is a writer and content provider who works in the daily fantasy and gambling space for DraftKings and other operators. He loves the quest of finding the next batch of underrated breakout players for his season long and best ball teams and then proudly watching them become mainstream stars. An inquisitive person by nature, you can often find him on twitter (@thefantasygrind) tilting his latest bet or going over his favorite plays for the upcoming NFL or Golf slate.