Week 4 NFL Parlays: Rams Moneyline, Juwan Johnson TD, and More

NFL Week 3 was the week of “close but no cigar” for me. The Ravens did manage to escape with a win vs. the Cowboys in Brazil, but our other three picks were all losers. The Titans had a chance to beat the Giants, but Cam Ward ultimately threw a pick in the end zone to cement their loss. The Jets were tied at 24 apiece with the Lions with less than four minutes to go, but their defense couldn’t keep the Lions out of the end zone one final time. Trey McBride also failed to score for the first time this season, but he had a catch where he was tackled inside the one-yard line.

Those slim margins are what make betting on parlays so difficult. You need to be perfect; if just one thing doesn’t break in your favor, the whole bet is going down.

Still, that type of downside does come with considerable upside. If you can nail even one parlay during the course of the season, you have the chance to be profitable.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite parlay pieces for NFL Week 4.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 4

The Underpriced Favorite

Rams ML (-185) at Eagles

I laid the points with the Rams in my Week 4 Best Bets article, so it’s no surprise that I like them on the moneyline. I think the Eagles are hot trash at the moment. Their offense has been unable to move the ball consistently this season, despite facing the Commanders, Titans, and Bears. None of those teams are particularly imposing, so the Rams will be their biggest test by far. They also might be without DeVonta Smith, which would make their offense even less effective than usual.

Defensively, the Eagles are not the same unit that they’ve been in years past. They’re merely 23rd in EPA per play defensively, so it’s hard to find an area where the Eagles are excelling. They’re still 2-1 for the year, but they could pretty easily be 0-3.

Meanwhile, the Rams enter this contest at 1-2, so they’re pretty desperate for a win. They’re also expected to get back Puka Nacua this week, so they’re getting closer to full strength. I don’t think this one ends up being very close.

The Underdog

Jets ML (+150) at Bears

I just can’t quit the Jets. Even though they’ve lost in back-to-back games, they’ve gone toe-to-toe with both opponents. Geno Smith is playing better than he has in years, while the defense is improved compared to last year’s unit.

The Bears managed to survive without Caleb Williams last week, but I think that says more about the Eagles than it does about them. Ben Johnson is clearly an awesome head coach, but winning consistently with either Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent is easier said than done.

The Jets will be the best defense this team has faced outside of Minnesota, and the Vikings held them to just three points. If they can slow down Johnson’s scheme, they should be able to score enough to secure an upset.

The Longshot

Dolphins ML (+480) at Vikings

Ok, hear me out. I get that this is going to be a controversial pick for most people. The Dolphins are bad. Probably really bad. But do you really think they’re going 0-17 this season? They’re going to upset someone at some point, and I think they at least have a puncher’s chance vs. the Vikings.

Minnesota may be 3-0, but I do not think they’re an elite football team. The data would back that up. In fact, the Vikings have been outgained by the third-largest amount this season, despite having the sixth-best scoring differential. At some point, they’re going to regress in one way or another. Either they’re going to have to start outgaining their opponents, or they’re not going to continue winning games.

Will that come back to bite them vs. the Dolphins? Probably not. Miami might just be that bad. But they’re at least catching the Vikings at a decent time. Justin Jefferson is banged up, and while it sounds like he plans on playing, he might not be as imposing as usual. They’re also still without Jordan Mason, leaving their rushing attack without its biggest threat.

I really like the idea of taking Miami +10.5, but I’m also sprinkling their moneyline. +480 has an implied probability of just 17.24%, and I think that number is too low.

The Touchdown Prop

Juwan Johnson Anytime TD (+245)

It’s only been three weeks, but the Saints are slinging the ball all over the yard this season. Tyler Shough leads the league with 91 completions, and he’s averaging more than 305 passing yards per game. He’s also thrown eight touchdown passes, three of which have gone to Juwan Johnson.

He feels underpriced to find the paint vs. the Falcons. They’ve allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends so far this season: one to Pat Freiermuth and two to Darren Waller. Johnson has better utilization than both of those guys, so there’s no reason why he can’t follow suit.

Final Parlay: Roughly +7600

This parlay checks in at nearly double the potential payout of last week’s. The inclusion of the Dolphins takes this thing all the way up to +7600. That’s a massive figure, so expectations should obviously be low. Still, any parlay is risky, so we might as well look to maximize the payout when we’re right.

Of course, you don’t have to follow this parlay exactly. Feel free to sprinkle in some of your own options, or go in an entirely different direction. Betting is supposed to be fun, and little is more fun than hitting a big parlay.

Players Mentioned in this Article

JuwanJohnson
TENO
PPG
13.6
Proj
8.3

Published Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM ET