Sleeper Over/Under Picks. Week 12
Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.
You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.
For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit up to $100.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests in NFL Week 12.
Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!
Tom Brady Over 24.5 Completions
Brady and the Buccaneers are coming off a bye in Week 11, and I’m sure that his 45-year-old body needed a break. He continues to command one of the largest workloads in the league, leading all passers in attempts and completions. He hasn’t been quite as efficient as he has been in years past, but he’s still the Buccaneers’ best chance of moving the ball on a consistent basis.
Brady takes the field in an elite spot in Week 12. He’s taking on the Browns, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in football this season. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA and 26th against the pass, so the team should be able to move the ball at will in this matchup.
The Bucs might not need to go pass-heavy in this spot, but that doesn’t mean they won’t do it anyway. They rank fourth in pass rate above expectation, trailing only the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals.
The Buccaneers are also listed as just 3.5-point road favorites, so they’re not necessarily expected to blow the Browns out of the water. Brady has racked up at least 25 completions in seven of his past eight games, with the lone exception being a game that was played in Germany. That makes this number very appealing.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 55.5 Receiving Yards
The big news in Kansas City involves some injuries they’ve picked up in recent weeks. Mecole Hardman missed last week’s contest, and he’ll be sidelined again vs. the Rams. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Kadarius Toney also picked up injuries in that game, and they’ve also been ruled out for this contest.
The good news is that Smith-Schuster will return to the lineup following a one-week hiatus. He’s served as the team’s top wide receiver this season, ranking second on the team in target share and third in air yards. Additionally, only Travis Kelce and Toney have been targeted on a higher frequency of their routes run.
Still, none of Smith-Schuster’s underlying metrics jump off the page, and there’s a chance he’ll be limited in his return to the lineup.
Skyy Moore and Justin Watson also proved that they are capable of pitching in at receiver last week, combining for eight catches for 130 yards. Outside of Kelce, no one on the team saw more than six targets, and Patrick Mahomes has been much more willing to spread the ball around this season.
Finally, Smith-Schuster is going to have to deal with the individual defense of Jalen Ramsey on at least a handful of snaps. He remains one of the best cornerbacks in football, ranking fifth at the position in Pro Football Focus grade. Troy Hill also ranks 30th at the position, so this is a very tough matchup overall. There’s enough here to look towards the under.
George Kittle Under 46.5 Receiving Yards
Have the 49ers amassed one of the most talented collections of skill-position players in history?
It’s definitely possible.
Christian McCaffrey and Kittle are among the best players in the league at their positions, while Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are an underrated receiving duo. All four players can put together big performances on a weekly basis, even with a “game manager” at quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo.
Kittle got his chance to shine last week vs. the Cardinals, racking up four catches for 84 yards and two touchdowns. It was easily his best performance of the year, but it comes with a major caveat. The Cardinals have been one of the worst defensive teams against tight ends for a while now, and they entered that matchup 31st against the position in DVOA. They surrender big games in bunches to the position, so it’s not surprising that Kittle ate in that spot.
Things are going to be much tougher this week vs. the Saints. They rank first in the league in DVOA against opposing tight ends, allowing an average of just 35.7 yards per game to the position. DeMario Davis is one of the best coverage linebackers in football, and Tyrann Mathieu is also an outstanding cover safety.
With the 49ers having so many other explosive players on offense, don’t be surprised if Garoppolo doesn’t look Kittle’s way much on Sunday.
Nov 6, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) runs the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders in the third quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
Travis Etienne Jr. Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
This is some serious disrespect for Etienne, who has been nothing short of phenomenal since taking over in the Jaguars’ backfield. He’s started each of the past five games, and he’s averaged 102 yards per game in those contests. He’s ripped off an average of 5.86 yards per attempt, and he’s cleared 85 yards in four of those games. The only exception was his last outing vs. the Chiefs in a game where the Jaguars trailed throughout.
The Jaguars are underdogs again this week vs. the Ravens, but this game seems much less likely to get out of hand. They’re listed as just 3.5-point underdogs, so Etienne should be involved in offense throughout. The Ravens also aren’t quite as potent on defense as they have been in previous seasons, ranking just 14th in rush defense DVOA.
Overall, Etienne is simply too talented for this line to be this low.
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Latavius Murray Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
While Etienne’s career is just getting started, Murray’s is on the way down. He has not been particularly efficient with his chances this season, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per reception during his five-game stint with the Broncos. However, he’s basically the last man standing in the Denver backfield. The team released Melvin Gordon earlier this week, while Chase Edmonds was placed on Injured Reserve. That leaves just Murray and Marlon Mack, who has only been with the team for the past month.
Murray should handle most of the opportunities in the team’s backfield, and he’s been a sneaky part of their passing game recently. He has at least three catches and 23 yards in back-to-back games, and he’s been targeted on at least 30% of his routes run in both contests. I would expect that number to come down as he plays more snaps, but Russell Wilson has leaned on whoever is in the backfield to catch passes this season.
The Panthers have been a middling team at defending running backs in the passing game, and Murray has the potential to hit the over on just one target.
If you play Pick'em on Underdog, check out my picks for the week.
