Underdog Pick 'Em For Week 5: Don't Overlook Trey McBride

After a great Week 3, my picks fell flat in Week 4. I did hit on the Chuba Hubbard TD prediction and had a few other near misses, but all in all it was a disappointing week. The good news is that we are still in the green for the season so it is time to lock in and bounce back.

If you’re new to this article, every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts. Now that we have four weeks of data to look at, I will also be incorporating position-level matchup information, particularly our DvP tool to identify the most advantageous matchups.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 5 Underdog Pick ‘em Selections

Trey McBride higher than 69.5 receiving yards

The Cardinals-Lions game is the talk of the DFS world in Week 5 due to the 54.5 point game total. Everyone expects this game to be an offensive explosion, and for good reason. These are two talented offenses and two of the NFL's worst defenses. I also expect a game with plenty of offense, but the trickier question is how to take advantage if that game environment does play out without exposing yourself to too much risk if it doesn't live up to the hype.

My favorite way to play this game is through Trey McBride receiving yards because the Lions have been particularly vulnerable to opposing TEs, allowing the biggest fantasy boost to the position. Although a lot of the talk recently has been about , we shouldn't overlook McBride's 31% target share and 97 Utilization Score, which keep him firmly among the NFL's elite pass catchers. He should get plenty of opportunities in this game and keep his streak of double-digit targets in every game this season. Against a soft Detroit defense, I like the odds that he can turn that into 70+ receiving yards.

Tyler Huntley lower than 175.5 passing yards

The Falcons-Ravens SNF matchup took a big hit when Lamar Jackson got injured. The Falcons have been one of the most exciting teams over the last two weeks, and this would be viewed as a high-powered matchup if both teams were at full strength. Instead, I am expecting two run-heavy game plans as each offense leans on their respective superstar RB.

I will note that the Falcons have been better at defending the run than they have been at defending the pass, but that doesn't make me think Baltimore will just turn to a pass-heavy game plan. Historically, they have gone more conservative when Tyler Huntley is in the game, and Huntley's rushing ability means some dropbacks will also turn into QB rush attempts.

A conservative Baltimore offense plus a strong Atlanta ground game makes me think this is a game that will move quickly and have fewer overall plays, which leads to me liking the lower on most of Huntley's passing lines. We'll keep it simple and take the lower on his passing yardage for this core entry.

Nico Collins higher than 78.5 receiving yards

I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that Nico Collins is the Texans’ offense. In his first game back from injury he commanded a 25% target share and scored both of their TDs through the air.

The Texans face the Titans in a battle of winless teams with the loser's season essentially over before it ever begins. Tennessee's defense is a pass funnel and the Texans rush attack has been abysmal over the past three games, so I expect Houston to have to lean on the C.J. Stroud-Collins connection to move the ball in this game.

Week 5 Underdog Longshot

D’Andre Swift higher than 0.5 first half TDs

The Bears are 2.5-point road favorites in Green Bay, something that hasn't happened too often in history. The Packers have one of the lowest run-stop win rates in the NFL and are giving up the biggest fantasy boost to opposing RBs. Chicago should be able to run the ball effectively in this game and there is a chance that Kyle Monangai will be out or limited after injuring his hand in Week 4. That should open the door for a big workload for D'Andre Swift in this game. The Bears have been willing to run the ball at the goal line, so I’m banking on a first-half rushing TD to juice us up to a big payout.