Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.

If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100. Just sign up using our link or by entering promo code LIFE.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests in Week 11.

Allen Robinson Under 50.5 receiving yards

The Rams are going to have to get used to life without Cooper Kupp. The star receiver suffered a high-ankle sprain last week, and it’s possible he could miss the rest of the season. If the Rams aren’t able to win some games in his absence, he’ll almost certainly be shut down.

Kupp’s absence will open up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster, but it remains to be seen if anyone can take advantage. Robinson was brought in this offseason to serve as a reliable No. 2 option, but he has been anything but reliable. He’s eclipsed 50 receiving yards in just three of nine games, and they’ve all been by the slimmest of margins. Overall, he’s yet to crack 63 receiving yards in any game this season.

Robinson was once considered one of the best receivers in football, but his production has fallen off a cliff in recent years. He averaged just 6.2 yards per target in his final year with the Bears, but it was easy to chalk that up as a fluke. He played most of those games with Justin Fields, so it wasn’t shocking that his numbers plummeted.

However, he’s shown no signs of improvement in his first year with the Rams. He’s averaged an identical 6.2 yards per target, and his 10.1 yards per reception represents a new career low. Taking Kupp out of the equation might result in a few more opportunities, but it’s not suddenly going to make Robinson 25 years old again. I’m looking to capitalize on the high line.

Oct 16, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Allen Robinson II (1) catches a touchdown pass in the second quarter against the Carolina Panthers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Antonio Gibson Under 46.5 rushing yards

The Commanders were able to run the ball down the Eagles’ throats last week in one of the most surprising upsets of the season. Brian Robinson racked up 86 yards on 26 carries, while Gibson added 44 yards and 14 carries of his own. Even Curtis Samuel got in on the fun, totalling 12 yards on four carries, while Taylor Heinicke had five carries for 10 yards.

If that sounds like an insane number of rushing attempts, it’s because it is. The Commanders have averaged 28.8 carries per game this season, so last week’s 49 carries are a clear outlier.

There should be less volume for everyone in Week 11 versus the Texans just by default. Gibson should continue to see a boost in snaps in passing situations as long as J.D. McKissic is sidelined, but Robinson has clearly surpassed him in the rushing pecking order. Gibson had 11 carries or fewer in each of his previous five games, and he had seven carries or less in three of them.

The Commanders have an outstanding matchup against the Texans – who boast the worst run defense in the league – but expect Robinson to benefit more than Gibson.

Justin Jefferson Under 99.5 receiving yards

Taking the under on a Jefferson receiving prop makes me sad inside. He’s quite possibly the best receiver in football, and he executed one of the most remarkable catches in NFL history last week versus the Bills. If not for his circus catch on 4th-and-18, the Vikings would have suffered their second defeat of the year. I think Ty Schalter sums up my feelings about Jefferson best:

That said, this is a high number even for him. Jefferson has racked up at least 100 yards in six of nine games this season, but his matchup against the Cowboys could spell trouble. They boast one of the best pass-rushes in football, and they rank fourth in pass defense DVOA. They also rank seventh against No. 1 receivers, even though their cornerbacks are not particularly impressive.

That’s the benefit of an elite pass rush. Not only can guys like Micah Parson and Demarcus Lawrence generate sacks and turnovers, but they force quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly.

D’Onta Foreman Over 50.5 rushing yards

There were some concerns about what Foreman’s workload would look like last week versus the Falcons. The team got Chuba Hubbard back from an injury, and Raheem Blackshear also factored into the equation in recent weeks. If the Panthers were going to form a three-man committee at the position, it would be pretty difficult to trust any of them.

Fortunately, that’s not what happened. Foreman retained his spot as the Panthers’ top runner, racking up 31 carries and 130 yards. He ultimately finished with 68% of the snaps and 66% of the rushing attempts, which were basically just as many as when he was playing with Hubbard sidelined.

The Panthers are not going to get 47 carries again this week, but Foreman should continue to stay busy. The team has averaged right around 25 carries per game this season, and a conservative 55% market share leaves Foreman with around 14 carries. Foreman has averaged 4.7 yards per attempt this season, so that should be more than enough to hit the over.

Nov 10, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers running back D'Onta Foreman (33) scores a touchdown as Atlanta Falcons linebacker Rashaan Evans (54) and linebacker Mykal Walker (3) defend in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Kenny Pickett Under 29.5 rushing yards

Pickett is coming off arguably his best game as a professional. His 6.63 adjusted yards per attempt was the best mark of his young career, and he didn’t turn the ball over. He also added eight rushing attempts for 51 yards and a score, leading his team to a 20-10 victory over the Saints.

Unfortunately, the difficulty level is going to get cranked up a couple of notches this week against the Bengals. The Bengals are used to facing running quarterbacks after playing Lamar Jackson twice a year for the past four seasons. They’ve been one of the better teams in the league at defending the QB run this season, limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 13.6 yards per game. The Saints are one of the worst in the league in that department, allowing an average of 26.9 yards per game.

Pickett is also far from an elite athlete at quarterback. He has decent measurables – he ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at the 2022 NFL Combine – but he’s clearly not Jackson or Fields. Pickett had 20 rushing yards or fewer in his first three contests, so this seems like a good time to hit the under.

Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca has worked full-time in the sports betting and DFS industry since 2018, with his work appearing on sites like The Action Network, DraftKings, Awesemo, and Props.com. He has a proven record as a bettor thanks to his analytic approach focused on line movement, public betting percentages, and trends. He specializes in the NFL and NBA sides, but he’s also had success in MLB, college football, and the player prop market. Matt is also an avid Mets fan who hopes to be alive for the team’s next World Series, whenever that may be.
Read More