Dynasty Rookie Profile: Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid

• Rookie Draft ADP: 24
• Underdog Fantasy ADP: 197
• Rookie TE Super Model: 90th percentile
• Mock Draft V3: 26th overall (Cowboys)
• Landing Spot: Buffalo Bills (25th overall)

Fantasy Outlook

The Bills traded in front of the Cowboys in the NFL Draft to grab Dalton Kincaid as the first TE off the board. The draft capital is very encouraging and the landing spot is excellent for his long-term value.

Kincaid was held out of much of the pre-draft process with a back injury but he was recently fully cleared and it shouldn't impact his year 1 production.

The Bills need a reliable target behind Stefon Diggs and Kincaid will get the chance to compete with Gabe Davis and fellow TE Dawson Knox to be that second option for QB Josh Allen.

Although history isn't favorable for rookie TE production, Kincaid is something of a mold-breaker due to his profile as big slot receiver and the fact that he will be playing in one of the league's best passing offenses. 

You won't want to rely on him early, but Kincaid will be a worthy bench stash or midseason pickup for the potential second-half breakout.

Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: Upside TE2

Summary

Dalton Kincaid is a pass-catching TE who can be a legitimate downfield weapon in the NFL. He is one of the more athletic and pro-ready prospects when it comes to the passing game. 

At the same time, he is one of the worst inline blocking TEs in this class, which may limit his upside to be an every-down player in the NFL.

He was productive in his final two seasons at Utah and proved to be an elite end zone target, hauling in 16 TDs in his 25 games for the Utes.

Unfortunately, he is still recovering from a back fracture suffered in his final regular season game. As a result, he did not participate in testing at the NFL Combine or at Utah’s Pro Day. 

There is some concern that this could cause him to fall in the NFL draft. In a loaded TE class, disappointing draft capital could have an outsized impact on his value in fantasy drafts.

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Pros

Smooth athlete

Like many of the great TEs, basketball was originally Kincaid’s primary sport, and it shows. He has excellent footwork, hands, and body control, which allows him to regularly make acrobatic, highlight-reel catches.

He is a good route runner with very promising separation skills. He can get in and out of breaks quickly and showed the ability to track deep passes well. 

He is also a threat after the catch with the ball in his hands. He has enough speed to make plays in the open field and should be a tough matchup for linebackers to try to stick with. 

Room to develop (despite his age)

Kincaid only played one year of high school football before playing five collegiate seasons at a combination of the University of San Diego and Utah. This relative lack of experience and non-traditional path suggests he may still have room to develop. 

He posted a YPRR over 2.0 in both seasons at Utah, and his 2.42 mark in 2022 was second-best in the nation among TEs with at least 25 targets. That level of efficiency for a player with limited experience is a great sign.

Nov 12, 2022; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Stanford Cardinal cornerback Ethan Bonner (13) nearly intercepts a ball intended for Utah Utes tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) in the third quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Normally, the fact that he will turn 24 during his rookie season would be a bigger red flag. It still isn’t ideal, but a longer college career is unsurprising with his lack of football background. 

Given his natural ability as a pass-catcher, his ceiling could be extremely high if he continues to improve as a football player with the help of NFL coaching.

Cons

Lack of strength/physicality

We’ve already established that Kincaid leaves a lot to be desired as a blocker. He graded out with the 112th-best run-blocking grade from PFF among TEs with at least 100 blocking snaps in 2022. 

For fantasy purposes, that might be a good thing as he won’t be asked to stay in and block, but it could also limit his ability to earn an every-down role. Hopefully whichever team drafts him will do so with a specific role in mind for his skill set. 

The more concerning issue is if NFL safeties and coverage linebackers will be able to limit Kincaid by knocking him off his routes and getting physical at the catch point. 

His contested catch success rate dropped from 78% to 50% from his junior to senior seasons, which is a worrying trend and something NFL defenses will use to their advantage if it is truly a weakness in his game. 

Fantasy Impact

Kincaid has a legitimate case for being the top fantasy TE in this draft class. He is currently the best receiver of the group and likely hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. 

However, he does have some risk factors that make him less of a sure bet to earn significant playing time at the next level. If he struggles as a receiver early in his career, he won’t have the blocking chops to fall back on to keep himself on the field.

Despite the uncertainty, he should still be treated as one of the top TE prospects in this class unless the NFL shows us they don’t view him that way.

He is currently the TE2 in our Fantasy Life dynasty rookie rankings.