Dynasty Stock Watch. Post Free Agency Update
NFL free agency never fails to disappoint, and this offseason has been no different. As the dust settles on updated NFL rosters, Sam Wallace takes a look at a few players who saw significant shifts in their dynasty stock following their moves during free agency.
Dynasty Stock Down
David Montgomery
- Contract: three years, $18 million with $11 million guaranteed
Let’s get right to it: RBs on their second contracts scare me in fantasy.
The relatively-short shelf life of RBs is reason enough for concern. When you couple that with the list of RBs to sign with new teams AND get paid the amount of money that Montgomery received, it’s…not good.
Good for Montgomery for getting a bag, but it’s not like we can just automatically give him all of Jamaal Williams’s 17 TDs from last year. Montgomery will have to contend with D’Andre Swift for touches, and Swift is significantly better than Montgomery’s previous backfield mate, Khalil Herbert.
The Lions should be an exciting team to watch once again in 2023, but Montgomery is someone I am looking to sell in dynasty.
KTC has Montgomery ranked as the dynasty RB25 with a trade value equivalent to the 2.03 rookie pick in superflex formats. I would bet that you might even be able to get a little bit more for him if there’s a RB-needy team in your league.
Montgomery is still only 25 years old, so there's some allure to him as a dynasty asset. I would be looking to flip him while the news of his signing is still fresh and exciting, as the data suggests that his best fantasy performances are possibly behind him.
Fantasy Life projects Montgomery to be a TD-dependent RB3 in 2023.
Adam Thielen
- Contract: three years, $25 million with $14 million guaranteed
It feels almost too easy to say that a soon-to-be 33-year-old WR's dynasty stock is down, but that doesn't make it any less true. There's not much that excites me about Adam Thielen in fantasy moving forward.
Age might be just a number, but the data still doesn’t like it.
Sure, the Panthers are top six in both vacated air yards and targets, but we have no idea who those targets will be coming from. Say what you will about Kirk Cousins, but he’s been proven to be efficient at supporting multiple fantasy-relevant receiving options over the years.
Dec 4, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) makes a catch while New York Jets safety Jordan Whitehead (3) defends during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
A combination of a rookie QB and/or a veteran journeyman will be slinging the rock in Carolina this fall, and the entire offense will be a bottom-of-the-barrel unit. That doesn’t bode well for Thielen's fantasy outlook.
Fantasy Life has Thielen projected as a volume-based WR3 for 2023. Even as a WR3, I would prefer more exciting options with a higher ceiling going in that range for my fantasy squads.
If any of your dynasty league mates are optimistic about Thielen in Carolina, I would try to sell him quickly for any 2023 or future second-round rookie pick.
Dynasty Stock Up
Darren Waller
- Giants get: Waller
- Raiders get: 2023 third-round pick (No. 100 overall)
The last two seasons have been frustrating for Darren Waller. He posted consecutive top-three fantasy finishes at his position in 2019 and 2020, but injuries held him to just 20 of 34 games played over the past two years.
However, the pendulum appears to be swinging back in his favor after going to the New York Giants, and Waller's new landing spot honestly couldn’t be better from an opportunity standpoint.
The Giants are top five in both available air yards and targets, and they're motivated to surround their newly-paid QB with as much help as possible.
Despite being 30 years old, Waller really only has four seasons of wear and tear under his belt. He also plays a skill position that tends to produce high-end fantasy finishes at a later age more than any other position outside of QB.
January 1, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller (83) catches a pass against San Francisco 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir (38) during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
New York has three picks in the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft (picks No. 25, 57, and 89), so it’ll be worth following how they attack the first two days of the draft. As it stands though, Waller is easily the most talented pass-catcher on the roster.
If they don’t add any noteworthy rookie pass-catchers, Waller could wind up leading the team in targets in 2023. Assuming health (always a fun but dangerous supposition), Waller has the opportunity to re-insert himself into the upper echelon of fantasy TEs this coming season, particularly in PPR formats.
Fantasy Life has Waller projected as a top-5 TE for 2023.
Rashaad Penny
- Contract: one year, $3.5 million with $650k guaranteed
Okay, hear me out.
I know that I just explained why Montgomery's dynasty stock went down even after getting a sizeable contract and with him not having had much of an injury history.
That said, I will now make the case for Rashaad Penny despite him being two years older than Montgomery and certifiably “injury prone”.
Allow me to explain and make it make sense.
Admittedly, I’m a sucker for small sample sizes and elite offenses. Penny has flashed when given the chance. It’s just that those chances have been few and far between, as he’s appeared in just 28 games dating back to 2019.
Regarding his newfound home in Philadelphia, the Fantasy Life team perfectly summed up his upside:
“In a similar situation at the end of the 2021 season with Seattle, Penny racked up 26.8, 6.4, 19.5, 32.5, and 25.0 PPR points over the final five games of the season without handling the two-minute offense or long-down-distance work.”
Dec 26, 2021; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny (20) rushes against the Chicago Bears during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Kenneth Gainwell should maintain his role as a pass-catching specialist, but the wealth of opportunity that this offense can provide is what makes Penny an appealing option in fantasy.
Did you know that Penny's 3.8 average yards after contact since 2018 ranks third among RBs behind only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb? The Fantasy Life team knew. We’ve got you covered.
We have Penny projected as an RB3 with RB1 upside if everything lines up for him this coming year.
Evan Engram
- Contract: one year, $11.3 million
If you managed to stay patient through the tough times, you’ve earned this.
The Jaguars franchise-tagged Evan Engram after he revitalized his career with a 73-766-4 receiving line under new head coach Doug Pederson last year.
We all remember how Engram came crashing down after a promising rookie campaign, and for a while, missed games and drops were the only consistent parts of his game.
But with just two games missed since 2020 and only three drops in 2022, yeah…I'm thinking he's back.
The Jaguars offense is looking pretty, pretty good heading into 2023. Trevor Lawrence will have a stellar cast of pass-catchers, as Engram will be joined by Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Travis Etienne.
All that being said, Engram’s redraft and best ball ADP might make it tricky to draft him this year. The middle-tier draft range of TEs has been tough to predict in recent years.
However, I'm happy to bump Engram up a few spots in dynasty. At just 28 years old and with first-round draft capital and 4.42 speed, his fantasy outlook seems optimistic for this coming season.
Fantasy Life has Engram projected as a mid-tier TE1 in 2023.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Contract: three years, $33 million with $22.5 million guaranteed
I understand the concern over the landing spot. At first glance, the Patriots don’t seem like an ideal environment for a WR to thrive in fantasy.
However, a closer look at the numbers gives me enough reason to boost JuJu Smith-Schuster a bit in terms of dynasty value.
He essentially fills the Jakobi Meyers role and is undisputedly the most talented receiving option that Mac Jones has right now. New England also ranks top eight in both vacated air yards and targets.
The hope is that new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien can rejuvenate both Jones and the offense overall. Adding a talent like Smith-Schuster, who is still just 26 years old, could be a key factor in helping to revitalize the Patriots' offense.
Fantasy Life has Smith-Schuster projected as a low-ceiling WR3 for this coming season. He holds more appeal in PPR formats, as he could lead the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards barring another major WR acquisition this offseason.
