MarShawn Lloyd Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

MarShawn Lloyd Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 155.2 overall, RB48, rookie RB6
• Rookie Ranking: 15 (RB4)

Summary

A steady riser throughout the pre-draft process, the more I’ve watched MarShawn Lloyd, the more he has grown on me. He’s a dynamic playmaker who tested well at the NFL Combine and has the size (220 lbs.) to handle a full workload in the NFL.  

He earned rave reviews at the Senior Bowl and has closed the gap on the RB prospects that were ahead of him in consensus ranks just a few weeks ago. He did suffer a handful of injuries throughout his college career that limited his playing time early on, but I haven’t seen anything that makes me concerned about his long-term durability.

Lloyd has been rising in my ranks and I’m not alone. As long as he gets solid draft capital, which seems even more likely coming out of the NFL Combine, I expect him to stay right around my rookie RB4.

Pros

Big-play potential

MarShawn Lloyd was one of the better explosive rushers in the country in 2023. He ranked in the top 10 nationally for YPC, breakaway rush %, and elusive rating among all RBs with at least 50 attempts. 

He broke a run of 20+ yards in eight consecutive games this past season (nine consecutive if you make the threshold 19 yards). He broke tackles at an elite rate and has the speed to beat defenders to the edge when there is an opportunity to bounce a run to the outside. 

Nov 18, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans running back MarShawn Lloyd (0) runs during the second quarter against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

He created a ton of yards after contact and produced explosive gains in both the rush and pass game for the USC offense. He had a 50+ yard rush and a 50+ yard reception in the same game against Cal this year and is a legit threat to make a big play each time he touches the ball. 

Size + Athleticism

I was really encouraged by Lloyd’s results at the NFL Combine. His testing numbers backed up the speed and explosiveness I saw on film, but he weighed in a bit heavier than I expected at 220 lbs. 

His combination of size, speed, and burst will be above average for an NFL RB, which gives him a path to real fantasy upside if he gets solid draft capital. He relies more on his acceleration and agility to beat defenders but isn’t afraid to finish runs with physicality when needed. 

Cons

Ball security

Lloyd had a worrying tendency of putting the ball on the ground too often throughout his college career. He had eight fumbles on just 289 career carries, which means he was fumbling on nearly 3% of his carries. That is too high of a rate to be trusted with a large rush share at the next level if he doesn’t improve, but the good news is that ball security issues are fixable.

I won’t be factoring the fumbles into his dynasty value much, but I will give some thought to what coaching staff he is drafted by and their history when it comes to trusting rookies and penalizing players for fumbles. If he is on a short leash when it comes to ball security, that could be a reason to keep expectations in check for his 2024 production.

Limited experience as a receiver

Lloyd had just 34 receptions across three years of playing time in college, so it is tough to project what he can do in the passing game at the next level. I do think this is one of those cases where we shouldn’t assume that just because he wasn’t asked to do it in college, he isn’t capable of doing it in the NFL. 

There are a few encouraging signs in Lloyd’s receiving profile that make me think he has some upside as a receiver. First, he put up a YPRR above 1.2 in his final two college seasons, which is very respectable efficiency for an RB.

Second, he led all RBs in yards per reception at 17.8 during the 2023 season. Sure, it was a very small sample size with just 13 receptions, but he still flashed the skill set to make big plays in the passing game. He also showed some ability to make plays as a downfield receiver, which is encouraging for his potential as an NFL pass catcher. 

All things considered, Lloyd’s receiving ability is more of an unknown than a negative, but in fantasy football we really want our RBs to have some receiving upside, so his lack of experience in college still qualifies as a red flag for me.

Fantasy Impact

MarShawn Lloyd is currently one of my favorite values among the rookie RBs. I have him as my RB4, but he is being drafted as the rookie RB6. There have been some whispers that he could be drafted higher than expected, which would cause the hype train to really get rolling heading into best ball and rookie draft season.

As with pretty much every RB, draft capital and landing spot will be incredibly important to his fantasy value in 2024 and beyond, but there is a lot to like in his prospect profile. He has the ability to create explosive plays that can still make him a valuable fantasy asset if playing in a committee backfield but also has the size to step into a larger role if asked. 

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